Peter Uzoho
The Gas Exporting Countries Forum (GECF) has projected that Africa would require up to $115 billion in gas midstream investment between 2031 and 2040 to transform its 15 trillion cubic metres of natural gas endowment into affordable and reliable energy for its people.
The Secretary General of GECF and immediate-past Managing Director of NLNG, Dr Philip Mshelbila stated this at the Africa Energy Week (AEW) 2026, in Cape Town, South Africa, with the theme: “Invest in African Energies: Affordable and Abundant Energy Additions.”
His presentation captured the continent’s most urgent task of turning resources into energy that people can access, afford and depend upon. He said nearly one in five people on earth lives in Africa today, yet the continent accounts for less than 6 per cent of global energy use.
By 2050, Africa is projected to add another billion people to become home to one in four people globally, but will still consume less than one-tenth of world energy.
The continent holds more than 15 trillion cubic metres of natural gas, over 8 per cent of global reserves, but that resource remains largely unmonetised due to lack of investment and infrastructure, a gap that exposes Africa to energy, food and economic shocks.
“Africa could attract up to $115 billion in gas midstream investment between 2031 and 2040 for pipelines, processing facilities, storage, liquefaction and distribution networks needed to connect resources to domestic, regional and international markets. The need comes on top of a wider annual energy investment gap estimated at between $31 billion and $50 billion,” the group said.
Mshelbila said undeveloped reserves mean nothing until they are monetised, noting that 80 per cent of annual capital expenditure since 2019 had gone only to backfill natural decline, while global gas demand was expected to grow 31 per cent by 2055 and 86 per cent of production by then will come from currently undeveloped resources.
“We define energy security as the sustained ability of the entire energy system to deliver affordable and reliable energy under normal conditions, during crises and as future needs evolve,” he said.
He argued that natural gas is more than a fuel and more than a foreign exchange earner, describing it as the foundation for industrialisation, power stability, fertiliser production and cleaner cooking.
“For Africa, gas is not merely a transition fuel. It is a transformation fuel. It is a strategic enabler of development and resilience,” he said, noting that gas provides baseload and flexible dispatchable power that stabilises grids and complements renewables.
Mshelbila outlined five priorities to close the investment gap including: Increased upstream production, building domestic and regional infrastructure and interconnectivity, prioritising domestic and regional value addition, deploying innovative financing with balanced risk-reward and resolving domestic gas pricing, and deepening cross-border cooperation.
He cited flagship projects such as the Trans-Sahara Gas Pipeline, the Africa Atlantic Gas Pipeline and connections between South Africa, Namibia and Mozambique as critical to creating a pan-African gas network and power pool.
He said while Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) and pipeline exports generate foreign currency, the real economic multiplier comes when gas is processed locally into fertiliser, plastics, fabrics and electricity, strengthening value chains, creating jobs and improving resilience to external volatility.
“Africa’s energy future will be built here, by Africans, with partners who share that vision. Africa has the resources. Its people have the ambition. Our collective responsibility is to connect the two through investment, infrastructure and cooperation,” he said.
He noted that nine of the forum’s 20 member countries are African, making Africa’s priorities the group’s priorities, aligned to Agenda 2063, the African Continental Free Trade Area (AFCFTA) and Mission 300 on energy access and regional integration.