The phrase “all good things must come to an end” is a cliché for a reason: It’s true. Which brings me to my recent NFL underdog hot streak: It came to an end last week. With a deafening thud.
After nailing seven of eight NFL underdog recommendations from Weeks 2-4, I wore the collar in Week 5 as New Orleans and Cleveland collapsed in the fourth quarter against the Vikings and Jets, respectively, while Arizona no-showed against the Lions.
Undaunted, I’m firing off a pair of NFL underdog plays for Week 6 — including backing a team that hasn’t won a game or covered a point spread since four days before Christmas.
Texans vs. Jaguars (-2.5) at London
It took a month, but the Houston Texans finally woke up in Week 5, played a full 60-minute game and not only picked up their first victory of 2026 but also covered a point spread for the first time.
Sure, that 26-3 rout came at the expense of the Tennessee Titans, one of three teams that remains winless and who are 7-37 in their last 44 games. But when you’re picked by many to win your division and you stumble to an 0-4 start, any win is a big win.
Now the Texans take their 1-4 record and renewed confidence across the pond, where the scalding-hot Jacksonville Jaguars await. Following last week’s miraculous 19-17 victory over Philadelphia in London, the Jaguars are now 12-1 in their last 13 regular-season games and they covered the spread in 11 of those contests.
So ask yourself this: Why is a team that is on a 12-1 SU and 11-3 ATS run — a team that has already spent a week in London — barely favored over an opponent that is 1-4 SU and ATS this season? Houston is also hopping on a plane for a second straight week — this time traveling overseas.
Is it because Houston is 13-3 against the Jaguars since 2018? Eh, that doesn’t really hold water, because the Texans are just 4-3 in the last seven meetings (including 1-3 SU and ATS as an underdog).
No, I think this a classic case of oddsmakers baiting the public into laying less than a field goal with a 4-1 squad against a 1-4 squad. I’m not taking that bait. Rather, I’m going the other way.
After all, Jacksonville absolutely should’ve lost last week to a heavily depleted Eagles team that was a 7.5-point underdog. Had that happened, there’s a good chance Houston would be a slight favorite in this one.
Bet: Texans +2.5
Chargers at Chiefs (-8.5)
The Chiefs are 4-0 and coming off a bye. The Chargers are 0-5 and coming off consecutive losses to a top 2026 Super Bowl contender (Buffalo), the defending Super Bowl champs (Seattle) and last year’s No. 1 seed in the AFC (Denver).
In fact, the Chargers haven’t won a game or covered a point spread in nearly 10 months (0-8 SU, 0-7-1 ATS). They’re also playing their third road game in the last four weeks. Their roster has been ravaged by injuries. Their franchise quarterback has the second-worst rating in the league. And that quarterback leads an offense that has scored fewer points than every team but Miami and Tennessee.
I could go on, but you get the point: This is a massive mismatch on paper. And I’m still taking the points.
Because this spread is inflated by at least a field goal (it has to be to draw any action on Los Angeles).
Because as bad as Justin Herbert and his teammates have played, they’ve been competitive the last three weeks against the aforementioned Bills (10-0 lead early and 13-10 lead into the fourth quarter), Seahawks (30-23 loss as a 7-point underdog) and Broncos (17-10 lead midway through the fourth quarter).
And because this is a huge lookahead spot for Kansas City, which follows this game with consecutive trips to Seattle and Denver.
Also worth mentioning: Andy Reid’s post-bye-week magic is a thing of the past, as his Chiefs are just 2-4 ATS after an in-season week off since 2020 (all as a favorite).
Furthermore, the Chargers upset Kansas City twice last season; they’re 3-0-1 ATS in this rivalry the past two years (all as underdogs); and they’re 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight trips to Kansas City (all as underdogs) with four outright upsets and only two losses by more than two points.
Bet: Chargers +8.5
LAST WEEK: 0-3
SEASON: 7 -7