Scott Rubner, head of equity and derivatives strategy at Citadel Securities, says AI stocks may outperform once the US midterm elections are behind us. Many of his clients, he says, are holding off on buying until the votes are counted.
The election as a risk filter
Rubner made his case on Bloomberg Television on October 20, 2026. He described the midterms as a “clearing event for risk.”
His view is that AI stocks have lagged because of broader market instability, not because the underlying story fell apart. Once the election resolves a key source of uncertainty, he expects that lag to unwind.
Rubner also pointed to support beyond the vote itself. Corporate buybacks and third-quarter earnings season are projected to bolster demand starting in early November.
Retail investors aren’t waiting
Not everyone is sitting on their hands. Retail traders on Citadel’s platform recently net bought $9.1 billion of US equities.
That was the largest net buying week in 15 weeks. Much of the activity leaned heavily toward AI-related stocks.
Semiconductors were the clear favorite. Of the total net purchases, $2.6 billion went specifically into chip stocks.
There is an interesting split here. Rubner’s institutional clients are reportedly waiting on the election, while individual traders are buying ahead of it.
How we got here
The setup traces back to September 2026. That month brought a significant market reset that shrank leverage and dampened sentiment toward AI.
History offers some support for the seasonal argument. In midterm years since 1930, the S&P 500 has posted average fourth-quarter gains of approximately 5.5–5.6%.
What this means for the AI trade
Timing is the other variable worth watching. Rubner points to buybacks and earnings season as demand drivers arriving in early November, roughly alongside the election itself.
The retail flow data is the most concrete signal available right now. The $9.1 billion week and the $2.6 billion chip concentration show conviction among individual traders is already rebuilding.
Rubner’s clients have essentially told him their plan, and that plan starts after the votes are tallied.
Disclosure: This article was edited by Diego Almada Lopez. For more information on how we create and review content, see our Editorial Policy.