Prediction markets: Kalshi gives Canelo Alvarez a 73% chance against Christian Mbilli, and Polymarket gives Millonarios FC a 55.5% chance against Once Caldas, as of October 18, 11:07 p.m. ET. Prices are bets, not polls.
Copa Libertadores semifinals are finely poised. Palmeiras won 2-1 away at Fluminense on October 14, while Estudiantes and Flamengo drew 0-0 on October 15, leaving both ties open for this week’s return legs.
Brazilian Serie A produced clear winners on Sunday. Flamengo won 3-0 at Bahia and Santos won 2-1 at Fluminense, while Remo and Red Bull Bragantino drew 1-1.
A defining week lies ahead. Fluminense must overturn Palmeiras’ lead away in São Paulo on Wednesday, October 21, while Flamengo host Estudiantes at the Maracanã on Thursday, October 22, with a place in the final at stake.
Today’s headlines October 19, 2026
| Event | Status | Angle |
|---|---|---|
| Copa Libertadores semi-finals | Wed 21 and Thu 22 Oct | Palmeiras, 2-1 winners of the first leg, host Fluminense; Flamengo host Estudiantes after a 0-0 draw. |
| Brasileirão round 31 | Result | Flamengo won 3-0 at Bahia and Santos won 2-1 at Fluminense on Sunday. |
| Copa Libertadores Femenina | Result | Colo Colo lost 2-1 to Colombia’s Santa Fe in stoppage time and are virtually out. |
01
Libertadores semi-finals head to decisive second legs
Preview
The Copa Libertadores semi-finals reach their second legs this week. Palmeiras won the first leg 2-1 away at Fluminense on October 14, and Estudiantes and Flamengo drew 0-0 in Argentina on October 15.
Palmeiras host Fluminense on Wednesday, October 21, at Nubank Parque in São Paulo. Flamengo host Estudiantes on Thursday, October 22, at the Maracanã in Rio de Janeiro.
For foreign readers, the Libertadores is South America’s equivalent of the Champions League. The two winners meet in the final on Saturday, November 28, at the Centenario Stadium in Montevideo.
In short — Palmeiras lead by one goal and Flamengo’s tie is level, with both return legs at home for the Brazilian clubs.
02
Flamengo and Santos win on Brasileirão Sunday
Result
In round 31 of the Brazilian championship on Sunday, Flamengo won 3-0 away at Bahia and Santos won 2-1 at Fluminense.
Remo and Red Bull Bragantino drew 1-1. Fluminense now turn to the Libertadores second leg against Palmeiras on Wednesday.
In short — Flamengo kept up their domestic form before Thursday’s semi-final, while Fluminense lost at home on Sunday.
03
What Prediction Markets Say
Markets
Polymarket prices Flamengo at 49.0%, Palmeiras at 42.0% and Estudiantes at 8.8% to win the Copa Libertadores, with about US$36,000 traded (as of 11:18 pm ET on 18 October). Kalshi, a market regulated in the US by the CFTC, prices Flamengo at 48%, Palmeiras at 32%, Estudiantes at 13% and Fluminense at 6%.
Prices are real-money bets, not forecasts by the clubs or the organiser. Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Prediction Markets Say
Implied chances from traders’ prices, as of October 18, 11:07 p.m. ET.
Canelo Alvarez vs Christian Mbilli
Canelo Alvarez 73% · Christian Mbilli 26%
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC) · 255,468 contracts traded
Millonarios FC vs. Once Caldas
Millonarios FC 55.5% · Once Caldas 18%
Polymarket · US$12,337 traded
Liga MX Apertura Champion
America 30% · Toluca 17% · Guadalajara 13%
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC) · 838,161 contracts traded
Brazil Série A: Winner
Flamengo 59% · Palmeiras 36.5% · Athletico Paranaense 0.4%
Polymarket · US$50,834 traded
Copa Libertadores: Winner
Flamengo 49% · Palmeiras 42% · Estudiantes LP 8.8%
Polymarket · US$35,535 traded
Colombia Primera A: Teams relegated (2026)
Jaguares 66.5% · Cúcuta Deportivo 9.9% · Independiente Medellín 3.4%
Polymarket · US$21,474 traded
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
04
Frequently Asked Questions
FAQ
When are the Copa Libertadores semifinal second legs scheduled?
Palmeiras host Fluminense on Wednesday, October 21, and Flamengo host Estudiantes on Thursday, October 22. Both matches will decide the two finalists for the November 28 final in Montevideo.
What is at stake for Fluminense in the second leg against Palmeiras?
Fluminense lost the first leg 2-1 at home and must win by two clear goals in São Paulo to advance outright. A 2-1 win for Fluminense would force a penalty shootout.
How did Flamengo perform on Sunday after their Libertadores first leg?
Flamengo won 3-0 at Bahia in the Brazilian Serie A on October 18. The win kept them sharp ahead of Thursday’s Libertadores second leg against Estudiantes at the Maracanã.
In short — Fans want the second-leg dates, Fluminense’s required result, and how Flamengo fared domestically on Sunday.
Sources: ESPN Deportes football results, October 18 2026, ESPN Argentina football results, ESPN Colombia Copa Libertadores fixture and results, TyC Sports Copa Libertadores 2026 fixture
Updated: 2026-10-18T23:17:00-03:00 by Oliver Mason, Latin America sports correspondent.
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