Tinubu Must Stay: The North demands answers, not slogans

The launch of “Tinubu Must Stay” may have come at precisely the moment when its promoters need to ask themselves an uncomfortable question: What exactly are they asking Northern Nigerians to celebrate and extend into another term? As supporters of President Bola Ahmed Tinubu prepare to counter the opposition’s “Tinubu Must Go” campaign ahead of the 2027 presidential election, they risk mistaking political mobilisation for public satisfaction and a catalogue of government projects for evidence of meaningful development. The North does not lack reasons to demand a better future; what it lacks, in the eyes of many of its citizens, is sufficient evidence that the present administration is delivering one at the pace and on the scale they expect.

The central weakness of Tinubu Must Stay (TMS) is that it seeks to defend political continuity without first demonstrating that the administration’s policies have produced fair, broad-based and measurable gains. Its promoters cannot simply point to the existence of projects and treat them as conclusive evidence in favour of another term. They must explain why voters should endorse four more years if voters believe their region continues to bear enormous economic and social burdens without receiving commensurate developmental benefits. Until that case is made, the slogan amounts less to a defence of performance than to an appeal for political loyalty.

There are numbers behind northern discontent. Consider the findings of the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS)’ 2022 Multidimensional Poverty Index survey. Published in November 2022, the survey estimated that 133 million Nigerians, representing 63 per cent of the population, were multidimensionally poor. Of these, approximately 86 million, or 65 per cent of the national total, live in Northern Nigeria, compared with nearly 47 million in the South. The survey also found that multidimensional poverty ranged from 27 per cent in Ondo State to 91 per cent in Sokoto State. The survey data were collected between November 2021 and February 2022, before Tinubu assumed office in May 2023. They therefore do not establish that his administration caused the North’s poverty. Rather, they demonstrate the scale of the longstanding developmental disadvantage confronting the region and the magnitude of the challenge the present administration inherited.

That distinction strengthens rather than weakens the argument. A government seeking re-election must be judged not only by the problems it inherits but also by the progress it makes in addressing them. What is the current population of multidimensionally poor Nigerians, particularly in the North? If President Tinubu wins a second term, what level of multidimensional poverty can reasonably be projected in Ondo or Sokoto States for 2031? These are questions that require credible data, measurable targets and a clear account of the progress made under the present administration.

This is the political danger facing TMS. Northern voters may ask why a region with enormous agricultural resources continues to struggle with food insecurity, why its young people find it difficult to obtain productive employment, and why many communities remain constrained by inadequate infrastructure and insecurity. These challenges have direct consequences for households, workers, farmers and small businesses.

For example, the August 2026 inflation figures illustrate the complexity of this challenge. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, headline inflation declined from 23.14 per cent in August 2025 to 15.39 per cent in August 2026. Food inflation also declined from 25.30 per cent to 19.57 per cent over the same period. Yet the Consumer Price Index increased from 145.3 points in July to 146.3 points in August 2026. A decline in the inflation rate does not mean that prices have returned to their previous levels. It means that prices are generally rising more slowly than before. Many households may therefore continue to experience severe financial pressure even as the headline inflation rate improves. For families already struggling to afford food, transport, education and healthcare, a slower rate of price increases does not necessarily translate into an immediate improvement in living standards.

Supporters of Tinubu may point to major infrastructure proposals and programmes, including the Sokoto–Badagry Superhighway and the proposed Kano–Jigawa–Katsina–Maradi railway, as evidence of the administration’s commitment to Northern Nigeria. Such projects could deliver significant benefits. Better transport links can reduce logistics costs, connect producers to markets, encourage investment and stimulate economic activity across communities. Northern Nigeria needs more than transport corridors. It needs an agricultural transformation programme that moves beyond primary production towards value addition. It needs better schools and stronger support for entrepreneurship. Above all, it needs policies that translate public investment into jobs, higher incomes, greater productivity and improved living standards.

The timing of TMS is significant, but its deeper problem is the gap between political messaging and public experience. A campaign launched in response to Tinubu Must Go may successfully mobilise supporters, attract publicity and strengthen party networks. Yet these achievements do not necessarily persuade undecided voters or resolve the concerns of citizens who are economically insecure. The campaign will be too little if it offers selective statistics instead of measurable improvements in livelihoods. It will be too little if it defends economic reforms without acknowledging the continuing pressure on household budgets. And it will be too little if it treats regional dissatisfaction as a communications problem rather than a development challenge.

It may be too late if its organisers assume that years of accumulated hardship and disappointment can be overcome by a slogan launched as the 2027 election approaches. Political communication can influence public opinion, but it cannot indefinitely substitute for tangible results. A serious campaign should publish a transparent national and regional development scorecard showing the administration’s commitments, the status of major projects, measurable improvements in public services and the economic outcomes citizens can reasonably expect before the end of its first term. Such a scorecard should include clear indicators of progress in poverty reduction, food security, employment, education, healthcare, infrastructure and access to economic opportunities. It should also distinguish between promises made, funds committed, projects completed and benefits actually realised by citizens.

The launch of TMS reveals that the President’s supporters recognise the need to defend his record against an increasingly assertive opposition. But the contest in Northern Nigeria is about more than competing slogans. It concerns economic opportunity, distributive fairness, public confidence and the credibility of promises made to citizens. The NBS poverty figures provide a sobering reminder of the scale of the North’s longstanding disadvantages. The more recent inflation figures demonstrate why improvements in macroeconomic indicators do not automatically translate into an immediate restoration of household purchasing power. Neither set of statistics alone determines how northern voters will behave in 2027. Together, however, they illustrate the challenge facing those who wish to persuade the region to support another Tinubu presidency.

The North does not need to be told merely that Tinubu Must Stay. It needs a convincing explanation of what his continued presidency would mean for its children, farmers, traders, workers and entrepreneurs. It requires evidence that the sacrifices demanded of citizens today will lead to a more prosperous and secure tomorrow. For Northern Nigeria, a late campaign of persuasion may still make a difference. But if the campaign offers less than the people expect, it will struggle to overcome the feeling that they have waited too long for too little. Before asking the North to endorse continuity through 2031, the promoters of TMS must demonstrate why continuity should be expected to deliver a different and better development outcome. As a Hausa proverb puts it, “a dog was told a celebration is coming, it said, ‘we will see it on the floor.’”