When looking at trades, the first things people tend to focus on is straight player for player swaps, this tends to make up less than 1% of all NFL trades. When you then expand this to player for player swaps including picks, it raises to around 2% of trades. Lots of these are much more likely to come in the preseason when teams are swapping bubble players, like Mack Wilson for Chase Winovich.
The main takeaway, is when you are looking at trades, focus on players for picks. Anything else is highly unlikely and is clouding how the NFL actually works.
There has been some phenomenal progress in NFL coverage to give fans more insight into how everything works. One of the advances is a recent trade value machine by @EaglesXsandOs that you can view here. It is important to remember you are trading players as much as contracts. A one year rental costing $6m is going to get less in a trade than someone costing $1m for the new team.
It uses lots of data points to try and project what a player will be worth in a trade and then has variables you can change per team to make everything more accurate. We have seen from the Marvin Harrison Jr trade, that it only takes one team to value a certain player more than the rest of the league to get a deal done. But this gives you a more accurate picture than we've seen before, and doesn't come with a tainted perspective of how a fanbase values their own player.
Jerry Jeudy Trade Value
I have written an article here on the financials of trading him. It will be cheap for the team that gets him with only 1/18th for the remaining weeks in the season of his $1.5m base salary. So if they trade for him next week, with 12 weeks less, it would cost the new team $1m.
The model has him worth a early 5th round pick. I think this is right and is probably why the Browns want a 3rd or 4th to move him. They play three wide receivers the majority of snaps, and if they want to try push into the playoffs, then keeping Jeudy is better than making do with Bond and potentially Corley or Wallace if they get an injury. For years the Browns have been short at wide receiver, and now they finally have some depth, it feels like you aren't serious about the playoffs by selling him on the cheap.
Other Browns
At the current time, if feels unlikely for the Browns to be selling any other players, if they enter the trade deadline sitting at 3-6 then it is going to be very different than if they are 6-3 or 5-4. So there is plenty of time for them to become more of a selling team for players than aren't long term pieces. But what are their values nearer that time and comments on some players if they have a selling mindset nearer the deadline.
Elgton Jenkins - 2027 Late R3
If the Browns want to give Wypler or Brailsford a chance until the end of the season. Then a team who loses their center mid season could offer a fourth round pick to get Jenkins and sure up their line for the Super Bowl push.
Isaiah McGuire - 2027 Mid R4
If he is going to move on at the end of the year, then a team pushing for the playoffs could offer a late fourth to add more edge help, especially if they think he is worth extending after the year. The Browns are likely making a decision between him and Wright after the season. Chance they could keep both but they likely want a more pure pass rusher in free agency would be my guess.
Derek Barnett - 2027 Late R6
Maliek Collins - 2027 Early R5
Two older defensive lineman who could be players they look to move on from if the season is heading the wrong way approaching the deadline.
Ronnie Hickman - 2027 Mid R5
While McNeil-Warren has been thriving, it has been on a smaller sample. Could they look to trade Hickman and give the rookie half a season to prove himself. By then we will know if they are leaning into being a three safety base or it is a spot where the third safety is only playing roughly half of snaps. If Hickman expects to start in 2027, he might avoid an extension in Cleveland.
Khalil Mack
Before I get to something I consider more interesting, I wanted to touch on Mack as he is one that many people are asking about. While the Browns are getting good pressure, adding a high quality pass rusher to the mix would improve their defense. The model has his trade value as a late 4th round pick. With a few teams interested no doubt, I reckon it would potentially be whatever of the Browns three fourth round picks is the highest.
The reason this is cheaper than others might think is he has an $8m base salary. So the new team must pay 1/18th of it for each week of the season remaining. The Chargers with their poor start to the season might look to eat the remainder of the contract and get a higher pick for the other team, so keep that in mind when/if he is moved.
Tight End Market
What the Cleveland Browns most is better blocking from the tight end position. I have had a look through the players in the model to see what I can find on a team that is struggling, a top contender likely isn't moving someone who is getting snaps:
Daniel Bellinger, Titans (Early 4th) - their team is in a bad place, maybe they could look to sell him at a reasonable price but a 4th seems too high
Charlie Kolar, Chargers (Late 4th) - they are really struggling, so Monken might look to add someone he knows
Brevyn Spann-Ford, Cowboys (Late 5th) - with Jerry you never know
Cade Stover, Texans (Early 6th) - their playoff chances could be effectively over the trade deadline
Drew Ogletree, Colts (Mid 7th) - if they have a rough spell over the next few weeks
Hunter Long, Arizona (Pick Swap) - they are in the hunt for a top pick in the draft, so moving on from veterans early is possible
Chris Manhertz, Giants (Pick Swap) - older but it is just a half season rental