BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Poll published Thursday, 22 October, about 6:30 p.m. ET · Source: Datafolha, via Folha de S.Paulo and TV Globo
Key Facts
- What changed Datafolha finds 49% of Brazilians approve of President Lula’s government and 48% disapprove, after 48% and 50% a week earlier.
- Why it matters It is the first time since July that approval numerically exceeds disapproval, three days before the 25 October runoff.
- Margin of error 2 points either way at 95% confidence, so the 1-point gap is a statistical tie.
- Fieldwork Voters were interviewed from Tuesday 20 to Thursday 22 October (registration BR-09709/2026).
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 75.6% chance and Lula 24.5% (22 October, 7:25 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 77% and Kalshi at 75% (Lula: 24% and 25%), as of 22 October, 7:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
Lula’s approval rating has edged ahead of his disapproval for the first time since July, according to the new Datafolha survey. Datafolha, a leading Brazilian polling institute, published it on Thursday 22 October at about 6:30 p.m. ET, three days before the Brazil election 2026 runoff.
Brazil Election Data Room
Runoff poll average: Flávio Bolsonaro 50.9%, Lula 49.1%
36 national polls from 20 pollsters since 4 October, updated hourly. Every poll, free to download.
Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva is Brazil’s president, and Flávio Bolsonaro, a conservative senator for Rio de Janeiro, is his rival. Approval of the government is a different question from vote choice, and our Brazil election polls tracker lists the head-to-head surveys.
What the New Datafolha Poll Found
Datafolha interviewed voters across Brazil from 20 to 22 October, with a 2-point margin of error, Estado de Minas reported. The poll was commissioned by Folha de S.Paulo newspaper and TV Globo, and is registered with the electoral court (TSE) as BR-09709/2026.
In total, 49% approve of the government and 48% disapprove, Bahia Notícias reported.
How Approval Moved in a Week
A week earlier, Datafolha had 48% approving and 50% disapproving, Estado de Minas reported. Approval has therefore risen one point and disapproval has fallen two.
Datafolha also asks voters to grade the government. Now 36% call it good or excellent, 24% regular and 39% bad or terrible, against 35% good or excellent and 41% bad or terrible a week ago, Estado de Minas reported.
Why the Approval Rating Matters
Approval measures how voters judge the sitting president, not whom they will pick on Sunday. With a 2-point margin of error, the 1-point gap between approval and disapproval is a statistical tie, as the polling coverage notes.
Our report on the same Datafolha survey shows Flávio Bolsonaro and Lula tied at 50% of valid votes each. Valid votes leave out blank and spoiled ballots, which is how Brazil announces results.
What It Means for You
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a government rated evenly by voters is one more sign that the result is not settled. Prices can swing until the count ends on Sunday night.
If you follow US trade or politics, the winner shapes Brazil’s course with Washington for four years. Treat any single poll with care.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, traders give Flávio Bolsonaro a 75.6% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 24.5% (22 October, 7:25 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has about US$192 million in trades.
These are bets, not polls. Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely.
We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.9% · Lula 23.5% (US$192 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 75% · Lula 25%
As of 22 October, 7:20 pm ET (00:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The sources we reviewed do not break approval down by region, age or income. Whether the improvement lasts until Sunday is not known.
It is not known how approval will translate into votes. A poll measures opinion on the days of interviews and does not forecast the result.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What is Lula’s approval rating in the latest Datafolha poll?
Datafolha found 49% approve and 48% disapprove of Lula’s government, published on Thursday 22 October. It is the first time since July that approval numerically exceeds disapproval.
How did Lula’s approval change from last week?
A week earlier, Datafolha had 48% approving and 50% disapproving. Approval rose one point and disapproval fell two.
What is the margin of error?
The margin is 2 percentage points either way at a 95% confidence level. The 1-point gap between approval and disapproval is inside that margin.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, three days after this poll was published. The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
Does approval predict who wins the runoff?
No. Approval measures how voters judge the government, while the runoff is a choice between two candidates.
Sources: Estado de Minas; Bahia Notícias, all 22 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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