Oxford Institute warns of fiercer Europe-Asia LNG competition in winter

Photo: ICGB

BAKU, Azerbaijan, October 16. Competition between Europe and Asia for shipments of liquefied natural gas (LNG) will intensify during the coldest periods of the coming winter.

This was stated in the Quarterly Gas Market Review by the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies (OIES).

The report notes that total natural gas supply in Europe in the third quarter of 2026 amounted to 62.2 billion cubic meters, which is 0.5% less than the figure for the same period last year.

According to the report, total gas supply in Europe in the third quarter of 2025 was 62.5 billion cubic meters, and in the third quarter of 2024, it was 64.2 billion cubic meters: “Thus, on a year-over-year basis, the figure decreased by 0.3 billion cubic meters, and compared to the third quarter of 2024, by 2 billion cubic meters, or 3.1%.

The OIES notes that on no single day of the third quarter of 2026 did daily gas supply in Europe exceed the average level for 2017–2024: “A noticeable increase in the figure was observed in the second half of June, while a significant decline was recorded at the end of September.”

"The main factors affecting gas supply trends in the reporting quarter were a 1.6 billion cubic meter reduction in gas injections into storage facilities and a 2.1 billion cubic meter decrease in re-exports to Ukraine and Morocco. These changes largely offset the 4.2 billion cubic meter decline in LNG deliveries to the gas transmission system.

Going forward, the gas market will continue to face risks related to reduced LNG supplies from the Middle East, the EU’s ban on Russian LNG imports taking effect on January 1, 2027, and competition between Europe and Asia for LNG shipments during the coldest periods of winter.

“In addition, the dynamics of gas withdrawals from European storage facilities during the winter will remain an important factor for the market. This will influence short-term price fluctuations and will allow for an assessment of Europe’s need for additional LNG supplies to replenish stocks in the summer of 2027,” the institute reports.