The Ravens may have forged a new identity under rookie head coach Jesse Minter Sunday night, finding a way to comeback and beat the Falcons in Atlanta in primetime despite lacking their highest-paid player on offense and defense.
Baltimore was without two-time MVP quarterback Lamar Jackson and without $30M/year pass rusher Trey Hendrickson and trailed throughout the game, and still came away with the win, 30-23, in overtime. Minter funneled more manpower to the line of scrimmage than ever before this young season to try to tamp down elite running back Bijan Robinson, and it worked expertly. And, yes, while doing that will leave you a little exposed on the back end, this secondary is also supposed to be the strength of the team, and a young quarterback just back from his third ACL surgery shouldn’t be able to repeatedly convert on third-and-10 or longer as Michael Penix did throughout the course of this game (Atlanta was 9/17 on third down in regulation despite being in long situations).
Tavius Robinson’s late sack, which effectively knocked Penix from the game and forced washed back-up Tua Tagovailoa into the contest, proved huge, but if this defense is going to be Super Bowl quality there remain significant areas that must be improved and cleaned up.
“Obviously, you kind of know when you play a lot for the run you may give up a few things in the passing game,” Minter said late Sunday night. “But again, I thought we could have played some third downs better, from both schematical (approach) and just playing the plays. But man, I am just really, really proud of our guys.”
Hybrid defensive back Kyle Hamilton, who put the game away by picking off Tagovailoa in overtime, kept it real as always: “I don't think we played well, for real. The third-down stuff was crazy … Third down, we have to do better. But it obviously feels a lot better fixing those mistakes with a win. I might be a little too cynical or critical, but we can be better."
Here’s what needs to improve:
Dime Still Dicey
Minter will always want to flood the field with defensive backs, and he played a 3-4 base throughout the first half to mitigate Bijan Robinson and it worked expertly (17 carries and just three for five yards or more), but Penix converted seven first downs passing against Minter’s dime defense on 14 dropbacks and did so from these distances: 3 yards, 6, 10, 10, 10, 11 and 15.
And this isn’t isolated.
Penix had a 101.7 rating throwing against dime Sunday, Baltimore has faced 95 dropbacks vs it (21 is NFL average; Rams are second with 71 and they play Monday). The Ravens rank 20th in opposing QB rating vs dime (89.5) and 20th in completion percentage (66%) and 21st in yards/attempt (8.3).
Baltimore’s dime coverage is even worse on third-and-fourth down, allowing a 94.4 rating and 9.5 yards/attempt. Minter needs to find the right mix back there or be willing to use more nickel. Overall the Ravens are just 14th in the NFL in opposer passer rating; outside of Dak Prescott have not faced a top QB.
Heat Up The Pass Rush
The hope is that Hendrickson’s return will mean everything. That’s always been the hope.
After his finger surgery, the Ravens need him to look like his Week 1 version. The Ravens are just 20th in pressure rare through five gams and Minter continued to have to blitz on one of every three plays, which is not his comfort level or preference. His blitz rate was around 22% with the Chargers.
Ravens edge players had just two total QB hits in Sunday night’s game despite Penix not really trusting his repaired knee to take off and run nearly as much he did coming out of college as a first-round pick. Merely re-inserting Hendrickson needs to be a cheat code for Minter; if this becomes a scheme-reliant thing we’ve got problems. Former All-Pro defensive tackle Nnamdi Madubuike is back to being a menace on the inside following neck surgery and getting him and Hendrickson going at the same time will be vital.
Can’t Stop No. 1s
Top receivers continue to take games over against this secondary. I strongly believe lack of pass rush in critical moments has a lot to do with that, but they also are going to need top corners Nate Wiggins (who has problems with Drake London Sunday) and Marlon Humphrey to make plays on the ball.
The Ravens have been thrown on 171 times – ninth-most in the NFL – and their cornerbacks do not have a single interception. They don’t have many pass breakups. They don’t get their hands on the ball much at all and haven’t for years.
Here’s what No. 1 receivers have done against them since Week 2 (Carnell Tate of the Titans hasn’t looked like a top wideout against any other team, but he’s as good as it gets for that suspect operation):
London (ATL): 7/11, 118 yards, 7 1st D
Tate (TEN): 9/12, 145 yds, 6 1st D
CeeDee Lamb (DAL): 7/8, 112 yds 5 1st D
George Pickens (DAL): 7/11, 82 yds, 4 1st D
Chris Olave (NO): 8/10, 86 yds, TD, 6 1st D
Halftime Adjustments
Minter has a lot more on his plate than ever before having to run a sideline and manage a game, which is brand new to him, and also call the defense. His early-game plans have generally been stout but as games go along this defense tends to wilt, the fourth-quarter collapse gene is still in there and the second half in general has not been good enough.
The Ravens are 26th in the NFL allowing 2.64 points/drive in the second half. QBs – again, not very good ones by and large – complete 69% of their passes (21st) with a 102.7 rating (21st). Baltimore allows 5.6 yards/play (20th) and 129 passing yards (26th) and they rank just 18th in third-down defense in the second half.
In the fourth quarter the Ravens are allowing 5.9 yards/play (26th) and 94 passing yards (31st) and 3.83 points/drive (tied for 31st) and a 42% TD rate (30th). Atlanta rolled up 126 yards in the fourth quarter Sunday and this remains a very real issue; the Ravens holding them to two field goals after marching down the field late was vital.
The Ravens have allowed 46 points in the fourth quarter, tied (with the Eagles) for second most in NFL (only Washington is worse).
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