While President Donald Trump's surprise diesel deal with Russia quickly whipped up anger from Democrats and some Republicans, it may not offer the financial boost for Moscow's limping economy that Ukraine's supporters initially feared.
Trump announced last week that Russia would immediately release an initial 300,000 tonnes of diesel to the global market, including American consumers, followed by 500,000 tonnes in November, amid sky-high prices at the pump in the U.S. Another 1 million tonnes would later become available, Trump said.
The news was met with outrage from both sides of the aisle and was heavily criticized by Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, who called the agreement "absolutely terrible" and a gift to Russian President Vladimir Putin.
The move came less than a month after Trump signed into law a broad sanctions package designed to hack at Russia's ability to fund its war with Kyiv.
Meanwhile, persistent Ukrainian drone strikes have targeted Russian oil and gas sites in the hope of cutting off oil revenue, and Moscow, in turn, have carried out its own attacks on Ukraine's power plants, grain-exporting southern ports and its factories to cripple Kyiv's economy.
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The diesel deal was quickly condemned by seven Democrat and Republican senators who said that the Trump administration should "immediately reverse course" after handing Putin a "financial lifeline."
Russia's economy has been warped by ballooning defense spending, pushing social funding further down the priority list as the Ukraine war, which began with the Russian invasion on February 24, 2022, becomes ever more unpopular with households who have lost family members or partners on the battlefield.
Russia's draft budget for 2027 allocates more than $202 billion to defense, meaning that more than one-third of all government spending will be funneled into the military.
Some initial estimates indicated that the U.S. diesel deal could inject roughly $4 billion into Russia's economy.
Others pitch the number far lower. Moscow could acquire an additional $400 million to $1 billion in the six months after the deal comes into force, said Eric Golson, a professor of economics specializing in economic warfare at the University of Surrey, U.K.
"This new oil money will go towards Putin’s ability to prop-up his ailing economy and purchasing weapons which will be used in Ukraine," Golson told Newsweek.
But some say the agreement will bring far more political benefit to Russia, rather than economic relief.
The Kremlin could stand to gain roughly $100 million of cold, hard currency in the first six months, said Alexander Kolyandr, Europe director for the Eurasia Group consultancy.
But this is "very, very little," when compared with Moscow's overall defense spending, Kolyandr said.
"It's peanuts," he told Newsweek. "It's too small to make a difference."
The U.S. transportation sector uses an estimated 2.94 million tonnes of diesel each day, according to government statistics. That means the first installment of Russian oil, totaling 300,000 tonnes, will barely cover a single day's use for this sector alone.
Russia, a major energy exporter, has been under a litany of Western sanctions since it invaded Ukraine. Ukrainian drone and missile strikes on Russian refineries this year have slashed Moscow's diesel production by nearly 30 percent and forced cuts to foreign exports.
But roiling energy markets, knocked off kilter by the U.S. war with Iran and Tehran's blocking of the vital Strait of Hormuz trade waterway after the U.S. and Israeli strikes began on February 28, caused fuel prices to skyrocket—a burden felt by U.S. consumers, weighing heavy just before the crucial midterm elections on November 3.
National average diesel prices hovered at nearly $6.3 a gallon on Tuesday, according to data from the American Automobile Association (AAA), up from just under $3.70 a gallon a year ago.
Diesel hit its highest-ever recorded price on September 22, reaching more than $6.5 a gallon on average.
High diesel prices have hit many American households, farmers, truckers and construction businesses relying on the costly fuel particularly hard.
But while the diesel deal won't conjure up a "life-changing" profit for Russia, Kolyandr said, "it's still more than zero."
What Could Russia Buy?
There are many unknowns about the diesel deal and how it will interact with American sanctions in the coming months. That makes it hard to judge how much money Russia will gain to purchase more military equipment as it continues to battle Ukraine.
However, there are some publicly available estimates for the cost of some of Russia's most advanced, and expensive, weapons. Each of Russia's Kinzhal missiles cost roughly $4.5 million, according to Ukraine's Militarnyi outlet, which reported that it obtained Russian military procurement information in October 2025.
The Kinzhal missile was unveiled by Putin in 2018 as one of the country's "next-generation" weapons. It's touted by Russia as a "hypersonic weapon," which is a difficult-to-produce system able to travel upwards of five times the speed of sound, or Mach 5.
But Western experts often veer toward calling the Kinzhal an air-launched ballistic missile, rather than a truly hypersonic weapon that can maneuver at high speeds and dodge sophisticated air defenses.
Russia's Kinzhal is launched from two types of aircraft and has been fired regularly at Ukraine on an unpredictable schedule.
If Russia gained roughly $100 million in usable currency from the diesel deal, it would be broadly equivalent to the cost of just over 20 Kinzhal missiles.
Russia uses Kinzhals sparingly against Ukraine, and often alongside drone barrages and other types of missiles. On one night in May, Ukraine said Moscow launched three Kinzhals at the capital city as part of a "massive" attack on Kyiv.
According to the numbers cited by the Ukrainian media report, the three missiles alone would have cost close to $15 million— nearly one-seventh of the entire $100 million trove Kolyandr believes Russia could stand to gain.
Often, Russia will deploy Kh-101 cruise missiles among the waves of aerial attacks, making them a staple of the Kremlin's long-range bombardment of Ukraine. Ukraine's Militarnyi outlet put the estimated cost of each Kh-101 missile as between $2 million and $2.3 million.
On the same night Russia launched three Kinzhals at Kyiv, Moscow fired 35 Kh-101 missiles, according to Ukraine's military. That would have a ballpark cost of $80 million, or four-fifths of the $100 million example total.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Tobias Meyjes and Dave Siminoff.