Migration has become a central issue at the two-day European Union summit (October 15-16). Ukraine’s president warned of a huge new wave of refugees if Russia wins the war, while a group of leaders pushed the bloc to take a tougher line on irregular arrivals.
Zelensky Warns of 20 Million Refugees
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said on Friday that up to 20 million Ukrainians could be forced to flee to Europe if Russia wins the war.
Speaking to reporters, Zelensky said Russia is killing Ukrainians and driving them out of their country.
“Putin wants to destroy us. He doesn’t respect us, our sovereignty and territorial integrity. He really thinks that we are not a country, not a nation,” Zelenskyy said, warning Putin won’t be satisfied with just the Donbas region.
NEWSLETTER TABLE TALK
Never miss a story.
Subscribe now.
The most important news & topics every week in your inbox.
When Russia launched its full-scale invasion, millions of Ukrainians fled in what became Europe’s fastest-growing and largest refugee crisis since World War II. According to Eurostat, more than 4 million Ukrainians currently live in EU countries under temporary protection, mostly in Germany, Poland, and Czechia.
The warning comes as Ukraine braces for a harsh fifth winter of war under constant Russian bombardment. The International Monetary Fund projects that Kyiv will face a budget gap of $30 billion to $35 billion next year, even after factoring in the €90 billion loan the EU agreed to last year.
Zelensky came to Brussels to secure more financial backing, asking EU leaders for €70 billion in extra support. Zelensky claims that since Putin has increased the Russian federal budget for the war, Ukraine needs to have the funds to push back against this, citing needs for a total of €155 for 2027 to keep Russia at bay.
But while the EU remains Ukraine’s strongest supporter, the bloc is also juggling rising energy costs, upcoming elections, global crises, and a deadlock over its €2 trillion long-term budget.
A Tougher Line on Irregular Migration
At the same time, the leaders of Denmark, Italy, and Poland are pressing the EU to take a much harder stance on irregular migration, according to three EU diplomats and draft summit conclusions seen by Politico.
The draft, backed by Italy’s Giorgia Meloni, Denmark’s Mette Frederiksen, and Poland’s Donald Tusk, says migration is a worry for many Europeans, a challenge to social cohesion, and is linked to higher crime rates. It also stresses the need for full control over irregular arrivals and calls on member states to avoid policies that might encourage illegal migration.
EU leaders held a special session on migration that Meloni and Frederiksen requested after a heated exchange with Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez in June. Tensions have only grown since then, after a migrant surge in Spain’s exclave of Ceuta over the summer and as far-right parties gained ground across Europe.
The draft also asks the European Commission to look into a possible consultation mechanism so that countries coordinate on national measures that could affect other member states. While it does not single out any country, Sánchez has clashed with Meloni over his government’s migration policies, including Spain’s plan to grant legal status to around 1 million migrants. A passage on migration’s impact on social housing was dropped from the draft over concerns it could be seen as a jab at Spain.
One diplomat said the revised text was unlikely to get unanimous support but was put forward to better reflect the political mood and spark debate.