How Did Bo Nix Regress From ‘Kid Clutch’ Into The NFL’s Most Conservative QB?

This hasn’t been the season anyone envisioned for Bo Nix. Not Broncos coach Sean Payton. Not offensive coordinator Davis Webb. Not new receiver Jaylen Waddle. Not me, for what that’s worth. So far this season, Nix’s capacity as a quarterback seems to be shrinking. At first, it was that he seemed hesitant to throw the ball downfield, most notably against the 49ers in Week 4. And then he seemed hesitant to throw the ball altogether, with nothing but checkdowns in the second half against the Seahawks last week. "I don’t understand why we can’t really push the ball vertically right now," Nix said after Denver’s 17-14 win over Seattle. "But defenses are just sitting back there hanging out, so we’re just going to keep running the football. And we’re just going to hopefully find ways to get more out of it." Nix added: "We’re really struggling to find those explosive plays. That’s what makes an offense really spectacular is finding those explosive plays. And right now, we don’t have those." That’s partially because he’s taking what the defense gives him. Which is a good thing. It’s also because he seems to lack guts — and/or the confidence to take and convert risks into explosive plays. Which is not a good thing. Nix ranks second in the NFL for YAC percentage — his receivers are generating 64% of his passing yards after the catch, per Next Gen Stats. He is also the QB with the lowest downfield passing percentage (21.7%) among the 37 passers with 50-plus pass attempts, per Next Gen Stats. (A downfield pass is an attempt with 10-plus air yards.) And that’s, in part, because he’s throwing the sixth-most passes behind the line of scrimmage (23.8%). And his season-long passing chart shows a nice visual representation of a quarterback who is, frankly, playing scared. There’s nothing downfield and nothing over the middle. This seems like something new — perhaps even the biggest developmental hurdle that Nix has hit in his three-year NFL career. Last season, Nix’s play was uneven, which is typical for a second-year QB. But he led the league with seven game-winning drives, earning him the nicknames "Kid Clutch" and "Comeback Kid." Of course, he often got his team into those holes with errors, inaccuracy and overall inconsistency. Because the Broncos won so many games and because Nix was young, Denver took the bad with the good. And to his credit, Nix hit downfield passes last year. And he converted them into touchdowns. He had nine touchdowns on passes with 20-plus air yards and 16 touchdowns on downfield passes (10-plus air yards). There was real potential in cultivating that part of his game — while getting more out of him from an efficiency standpoint. So the team must have acquired Waddle this offseason in an effort to smooth out the problematic areas in Nix’s game — and feature that downfield passing element. But the opposite has happened, with the Broncos' offense unable (and seemingly unwilling) to generate explosive plays. Now, Nix is the NFL’s most conservative quarterback. I’d say he’s also playing poorly. But that’s a label that Nix would dispute. "Playing good and playing bad — it’s a narrative and I think it’s honestly kind of something we make up," Nix said earlier in October. "I don’t think necessarily I’m playing any different than what I’m normally playing." The numbers beg to differ. The film begs to differ. This is a different version of Nix. And the Broncos have been barely treading water with him running the offense. The question is, why is this year so different? The quickest answer is the fractured ankle he suffered in the playoffs last January. But the problem with that explanation is that he hasn’t appeared on the Broncos’ injury report — not once. So if there is an ankle issue, it’s not something that’s affecting him enough at practice to disclose. So then what? Could it be about the coverages opposing teams are playing? "I thought I saw the field really well, particularly early when we were given opportunities to be aggressive," Nix told reporters after last Thursday’s game. "As the game went on, it felt a little bit like third downs were the key. And then, every once in a while, we had an opportunity to throw it deep again. And they were in a Cover-2 shell and there were just outlets with 10 yards of space." Nix has seen some shell coverage, with two high safeties. But not at a rate that should completely deter him from throwing downfield. He has faced split safeties on 43.1% of his dropbacks, 22nd in the league. That excuse won’t cut it. So then there’s the drama with the playcaller. Webb, the OC, started this season as Nix’s playcaller. But after just four games, Payton took back those responsibilities. And when that only seemed to make things worse for Nix, it came out that Webb taught the offense all new terminology this offseason. When Payton took over, he wanted to go back to his terminology. That meant Nix had to forget what he’d learned over the offseason. And it also meant that Waddle, and other newcomers, needed to learn the new language. Payton gave Webb the playcalling duties to keep him in the building last offseason, which was surprising given that Payton has long been one of the league’s best playcallers. "It was because I honestly thought it would help us," Payton said earlier in October of why he gave Webb playcalling duties. "That’s how unique I think he is. It was because I honestly thought, standing back as the head coach, it would help us." It didn’t. But then again, neither has Payton’s takeover. Because if Nix looked bad through those first four weeks, he has looked terrible in the past two weeks. Speaking broadly about his team, Payton seems to know the Broncos are fortunate to have won four of their first six games. "I’m a little bit of a realist to know that 4-2 could easily be 2-4," he said this week. Yup. The Broncos took a tentative quarterback and made him an anxious one. Nix is barely functioning — just grateful that the defense can take the wheel for him. But Payton said he’s not considering a change at quarterback (the backups are Jarrett Stidham and Sam Ehlinger). In theory, the Broncos should go upward from here. They’re coming off a "mini-bye" with 10 days after the Thursday night game. This week, they have the Cardinals, who might have knocked off the Rams but still have a porous defense. And then in Week 10, the Broncos get their bye, which — at this rate — they’re going to need to regroup. "[Nix is] going to become the byproduct of all the finer things that can improve," Payton said, pointing at the offensive line and the team's continued emphasis on running the football. The Broncos can build Nix back into a better version. Just look at how quickly Patriots QB Drake Maye flipped the switch after his early-season struggles. It won’t be that quick for Nix. And it won’t look like Maye, because Nix just isn’t Maye. Not even close. But Payton can get his game manager back. Payton can resuscitate a quarterback who is excellent at operating a good game plan. He has to. Or else it’s like the Broncos coach said — the next six weeks could easily be 2-4.