The NFL Week 7 International Series contest is in Paris, and it features the Pittsburgh Steelers and the New Orleans Saints. The 4-2 Steelers are 3.0-point favorites against the 2-4 Saints, and the game’s total is 44.5 points.
The weather forecast calls for enough wind to potentially impact the passing game, namely explosive, downfield passing. The field could also be wet from overnight and pre-game rain.
The two forthcoming best player props are a scrimmage yardage over for one of the contest’s running backs and an under for one of the pass-catching options.
NFL Week 7: International Series (Paris) Best Player Props
- Jaylen Warren Over 90.5 Rushing + Receiving Yards (-120) at Fanatics Sportsbook
- Pat Freiermuth Under 32.5 Receiving Yards (-113) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Jaylen Warren (Pittsburgh Steelers - RB)
Jaylen Warren is having a fantastic season, amassing 718 scrimmage yards (rushing and receiving yards combined) in six games. He’s averaging 119.7 scrimmage yards per game, with a median of 102. The do-it-all back has cleared 90.5 rushing-plus-receiving yards in three games, including two of his last three.
Rico Dowdle returned from a three-game absence last week. Sadly, Warren has gone over 90.5 scrimmage yards in three games without Dowdle and under in three games with Dowdle.
Still, Warren’s usage was encouraging last week. Warren had a 73.7% snap share and 14 rush attempts versus Dowdle’s 27.6% and seven. In Week 6, Warren also had a 38.9% route participation rate compared to Dowdle’s 13.0%. Ultimately, Warren tallied only 78 scrimmage yards.
That said, Warren’s matchup was challenging. The Buccaneers held running backs to 59 rushing yards per game, 3.35 yards per carry and 35.6 receiving yards per game before Week 6.
Warren has a mouthwatering matchup this week. The Saints have coughed up an NFL-high 116.8 rushing yards per game, 4.83 yards per carry, 30.8 receiving yards per game and 7.32 yards per target to running backs. Jahmyr Gibbs (186 scrimmage yards), Ashton Jeanty (93 scrimmage yards), Bijan Robinson (147 scrimmage yards) and Aaron Jones (117 scrimmage yards) all surpassed Warren’s line of 90.5 scrimmage yards against the Saints this season.
Warren could also be without Dowdle or with a diminished Dowdle this week. Dowdle was a limited participant once and a full participant in practice twice last week with a toe injury. He has logged only three limited participations in practice this week with a knee injury and is listed as questionable.
Warren should clear his rushing plus receiving yardage prop with or without Dowdle, but the best time to bet his player prop is now, as the line will climb if Dowdle is ruled out.
Pat Freiermuth has struggled against the coverage types deployed the most often by the Saints.
Getty ImagesPat Freiermuth (Pittsburgh Steelers - TE)
Pat Freiermuth has averaged 30 receiving yards per game this year, with a median of 31.5. He’s fallen short of 32.5 receiving yards in four of six games, including last week’s contest. In fact, one of the two times Freiermuth cleared that mark was in Week 1. Thus, he’s gone under in four of five games since.
Freiermuth has a favorable matchup through one lens. The Saints have allowed the fifth-most receiving yards per game (75.8) and the eighth-most yards per target (8.58) to tight ends this year. However, that comes with the caveat that the Saints have faced Sam LaPorta, Brock Bowers, Michael Mayer, Kyle Pitts and Isaiah Likely. They’ve faced a murderer’s row of tight ends.
Through another lens, the matchup is a stone-cold disaster for Freiermuth. The Saints have played zone coverage at the fourth-highest rate (83.0% versus 73.7% league average) and single-high coverage at the third-highest rate (64.2% compared to 49.8% league average) this season. Their marks aren’t too dissimilar to Tampa Bay’s 81.5% zone rate and 65.1% single-high coverage rate, and the Buccaneers held Freiermuth to a season-low 11 receiving yards last week.
Freiermuth’s struggles last week shouldn’t be handwaved away. Instead, they illustrate a continuation of his issues against those coverage types. Freiermuth has logged 0.11 targets per route run (0.19 TPRR league average) and 1.18 yards per route run (1.62 Y/RR league average) on 89 routes against zone and 0.12 TPRR (0.20 TPRR league average) and 0.71 Y/RR (1.58 Y/RR league average) on 101 routes against single-high coverage this year.
The Saints should bottle up Freiermuth and hold him under 32.5 receiving yards, making the under on his player prop an alluring bet.
This article was originally published on Forbes.com