A couple of days ago, I was remembering Jeremy Pena’s decisive home run four years ago that ended an 18-inning marathon that lasted 6 hours and 22 minutes. The Astros won 1-0, completing the ALDS sweep and advancing to their sixth consecutive ALCS.
I’d like to know what you think, but when I see Pena, Jose Altuve, Carlos Correa, and Yordan Alvarez in the current Astros lineup, memories of all the great games they won over the last few years come to mind. Obviously, they are not the most recent ones, as Houston is going through a six-game losing streak in the playoffs that dates back to Game 6 of the American League Championship Series against the Texas Rangers in 2023.
We’ve talked a lot here about all the reasons that have been decisive in the team’s decline, from the pitching staff’s inability to deliver quality starts in key games to the team’s insufficient offense. The 2026 Astros showed considerable power because of their hitters’ ability to hit home runs, leading the league with 226.
But the playing philosophy has been different, and when the power is overshadowed, the team can no longer solve its production issues with contact or the ability to get on base and make a difference. The investments have been disappointing and have not been able to change the recent history of two consecutive sweeps allowed in the Wild Card Series.
The uncertainty surrounding the team’s future
The Astros do not have a general manager or a manager, and that creates major uncertainty heading into this complicated offseason, with the current collective bargaining agreement set to expire on December 1. So, some of our most pressing questions remain: What will happen with Jeremy Pena and Isaac Paredes? Will both be part of the next plan, or will one of them be an interesting trade option? What will happen with Jose Altuve’s future?
What is expected regarding Carlos Correa’s return? Can Yainer Diaz carry all the weight as a catcher if the team does not have an offer to bring Christian Vazquez back in its plans? Who will be the starting left fielder? Will Daulton Varsho be the center fielder the Astros need for the near future?
Going over all of this, while watching Pena run the bases at T-Mobile Park after the home run in the 18th inning, I thought about everything that made that team impactful and, once again, about the lack of stability in recent years. But here comes a key point that perfectly illustrates the problem. The Astros just finished with an 81-81 record, winning the division on the final day of the regular season.
Although the starters were not together very often in a large portion of the games, the playoff lineup was the closest thing to the best version of this team. Only Correa and Varsho were missing, as they were on the injured list. However, not all players were able to have the same influence during the regular season. There is a record that is more revealing than it seems. If we look individually at most of the starters, there are details that stand out, such as these.
With Jeremy Pena in the lineup, including games as a substitute: 60-52 (.536)
Without Pena: 21-29 (.420)
Without Jose Altuve: 17-9 (.654)
Without Isaac Paredes: 2-5 (.286)
With Yordan Alvarez: 79-79 (.500)
With Christian Walker: 78-78 (.500)
Look, this can be interpreted in many ways, but it is clear that things do not work the same way for players who were in practically every game, such as Yordan and Walker. However, we can see the most notable differences in their absences. Without Altuve, Houston managed to win during that six-game stretch, but that was not the case during the short period when Paredes was unavailable or in the 50 games Pena missed, most of them due to injury. For a large portion of those games, the Astros were also without Correa, and it has been demonstrated that those absences change the team’s impact on offense and defense.
On only six occasions, Houston repeated a lineup, and none lasted more than two games, so stability was far from the norm. It will not be one either if the Astros do not make it a priority to address their main problems and reduce some of the uncertainty they have left heading into this off-season. It is difficult to have a solid roster of starting players who can stay healthy and consistent, but neither version has been enough for the Astros to get beyond Game 162 in the last four seasons.
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