Cairo has no real intention of joining the Mecca Joint Defense Agreement and its offer to send support to Riyadh, though significant, is symbolic and unlikely to be called upon, Jonathan Hessen, a senior fellow at the Jerusalem Institute for Strategy and Security (JISS), told The Jerusalem Post on Wednesday.
His comments came a day after Egyptian Foreign Minister Badr Abdelatty said in an interview with Bloomberg on the sidelines of the International Monetary Fund’s annual meeting that Egypt was both considering joining the pact and willing to provide whatever support Riyadh requested in its ongoing war against the Houthis.
“Whatever is being asked by the Saudis, of course we will respond,” Abdelatty said. “Without any reservation, we are providing all kinds of support.”
Hessen explained that on the same day Cairo said it was considering the pact, the defense ministers of Cyprus and Greece held a trilateral meeting in Cairo with their Egyptian counterpart, which “does not necessarily bode well for the Turkish narrative that Egypt would soon join.”
Each Mecca pact member focused on combating specific power
Beyond the issue of Cairo navigating the conflict between Cyprus and the Turkish occupation, Hessen highlighted that each member of the Mecca pact had a power they were fixated on, motivating their membership. For Saudi Arabia, it is the Houthis; for Pakistan, it is India and Iran; and for Turkey, it is Israel.
Notably, Article 6 of the 1979 Egypt-Israel Peace Treaty requires Cairo to carry out the peace terms unconditionally, regardless of outside political pressures or external treaties, and restricts it from signing future international agreements that contradict or undermine the peace treaty.
Under the Mecca agreement, an attack on one country must be considered an attack on all, which could potentially pave the way for future complications given the state of Ankara-Jerusalem relations, as explained in an analysis by Institute for National Security Studies senior researcher Ofir Winter.
“It’s about strategic autonomy. On the one hand, it’s about hedging against the US-based security architecture in the region. More importantly, it’s about having an integrated military-industrial base that can address deficiencies in the West’s ability to shore up support for these countries, particularly Saudi Arabia and Turkey,” Hessen said.
“I do not think we will see a significant alliance emerge between Turkey and Saudi Arabia. I believe this is a form of alignment aimed at deterrence, with no real intention of implementing long-term strategic goals that could involve deploying entire military divisions to the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. I just don’t see that happening.”
Egypt preoccupied with other challenges
Though he maintained such regional alliances could materialize in the distant future, he maintained Egypt was too preoccupied with other challenges to focus on supporting Riyadh.
“We will not see a reenactment of the 1950s and 1960s, when Egypt joined Saudi Arabia in the fight in Yemen. This is a new reality in which Egypt sees a whole host of challenges surrounding it,” he said, noting the issues posed by the Muslim Brotherhood, tribal tensions, and disagreements with Ethiopia over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam, which Ethiopia built on the Blue Nile River, potentially threatening water supply.
With conflict-rife Sudan sharing a border with Egypt, Hessen reasoned that Cairo’s plate was also simply too full to accept any support that would require significant resources being sent abroad.
However, he admitted that it was in Egypt’s interest to ensure the Bab el-Mandeb Strait remains as open as possible, given its potential to impact the Suez Canal, which is now just starting to recover after the Houthis began targeting Red Sea shipping in 2023.
“They’re talking about a net loss of some $20 billion resulting from Houthi belligerence, which has disrupted freedom of navigation through that very important strategic strait,” he said. “While the Saudis have asked for Egyptian support, and we saw MBS [Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman Al Saud] travel to Cairo to meet with President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi on September 15 – despite the joint statement issued at the time and Egypt’s pledges to stand by Saudi Arabia as a founding member of the Saudi-led naval operation to ensure freedom of navigation through the Red Sea and the adjacent strategic waterways – Egypt has yet to send any naval assets in that direction.”