Texas has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988, or a Democratic governor since 1990. On November 3, it could end one of those streaks and extend the other.
Decision Desk HQ’s October 19 polling averages had Democrat James Talarico up about two points on Republican Ken Paxton for Senate. But Republican Governor Greg Abbott led Democrat Gina Hinojosa by a similar margin.
Such a split would not take much movement. In 2018, Abbott won by about 13 points and Senator Ted Cruz by less than three. That was a far wider gap between the two races than today’s. Yet there was no split, because both men won.
In a closely divided country, a small slice of voters can hand the parties different offices.
That is the trouble with the tidy “blue wave” story. A good national mood for Democrats does not necessarily tell us where they will win. Nor does it easily tell us what voters wanted from the winners.
Splits in Both Directions
Decision Desk HQ sees seven states as the likeliest to split. Several could pair a Democratic senator with a Republican governor, as Texas might.
New Hampshire is the clearest case. Democratic Representative Chris Pappas is a strong favorite for the open Senate seat. Republican Governor Kelly Ayotte is favored for a second term.
In Georgia, Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff is a heavy favorite against Republican Representative Mike Collins. But the governor’s race is a toss-up.
One late-September poll had Ossoff up eight and Republican Rick Jackson up two over Democrat Keisha Lance Bottoms. Pollster Matt Towery said he had “never seen” anything like it.
In Alaska, former Democratic Representative Mary Peltola is a slight favorite to unseat Republican Senator Dan S. Sullivan. She is running an Alaska-first campaign that keeps national Democrats at arm’s length. Yet the governor’s race is a toss-up.
Republicans are favored for both offices in Kansas, South Carolina, and Nebraska. A Senate upset in any of them would likely mean a split. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton led Republican Senator Roger Marshall in VoteHub’s polling average on October 19.
Other states could split the opposite way. In Maine, Democrat Hannah Pingree is a strong favorite for governor. But Republican Senator Susan Collins is in a toss-up with Democrat Troy Jackson.
In a late-September AARP poll, swing voters 50 and older backed Collins by more than four to one. These voters did not back the same party for Senate, governor, and Congress. “She is not a traditional Republican,” said Bob Ward, who helped run the poll.
Republican Mike Rogers in Michigan did next best with them. Democrat Jocelyn Benson led the governor’s race there by seven points in Decision Desk HQ’s average. But progressive Democrat Abdul El-Sayed led Rogers by just two for Senate.
Iowa looks similar. Democrat Rob Sand is favored for governor, but the Senate race is a toss-up. Florida could split the same way if David Jolly, a Republican-turned-Democrat, pulls off an upset for governor.
Ohio could split either way. Republican Vivek Ramaswamy is a slight underdog for governor. Democrat Sherrod Brown’s bid to return to the Senate is a coin flip.
Blue states such as Minnesota and Oregon could split, too. Republicans could win Oregon’s governorship for the first time since 1982. In Vermont, which has no Senate race, Republican Governor Phil Scott’s survival may depend on ticket-splitters.
Why the Direction Matters
Democrats need a net gain of four seats to win the Senate.
By Decision Desk HQ’s forecast, a Rogers or Collins win would on its own make Republicans favorites to hold it. A Talarico win, or a Senate upset in Kansas or South Carolina, would make Democrats strong favorites to take it.
The biggest split could be between the House and the Senate. In 2018, Democrats gained 41 House seats while Republicans, defending only nine Senate seats, gained two.
VoteHub’s forecast pointed to a comfortable Democratic House majority but gave Democrats a 59 percent chance at the Senate.
If the Polls Are Wrong
Polls can miss, but not always the way partisans assume. They made Democrats look too strong in each of the last three presidential elections, the American Association for Public Opinion Research found.
In the last two midterms, though, the misses roughly canceled out. With President Donald Trump off the ballot, a hidden Republican vote is not guaranteed this time around.
A miss in one direction everywhere would not simply tidy the map. It could erase the split in Texas. But a miss toward Republicans could create new splits in Maine or Michigan. Democrats lead one race clearly there and the other narrowly.
None of this points to a hidden majority for either party.
There Is a Wave
The strongest objection to that assessment is that the wave is both real and growing.
VoteHub tracks polls asking which party’s candidate voters would back for Congress. Democrats’ lead in its average grew from about six points in early September to about nine by October 19.
That would beat their 2018 result. In a polarized country, close races tend to fall together.
Which is all right about the direction, and probably about the House. But it is a weaker argument about the map. A five-point swing toward Democrats flips a state Republicans would otherwise win by three, but not one they would win by 15.
If Democrats sweep the close races for both offices, the blue wave will have been as strong as much of the hype is selling.
A Messy Ending
A Democrat who wins Texas or Kansas may owe it to a particular opponent and campaign. In the former, Paxton is a candidate with some heavy baggage, to say the least.
So the win alone would not show that voters endorsed the national party’s whole program.
A Republican who survives in Maine may owe it to her own standing, not enthusiasm for the president. Voters who want a check on Washington but trust their governor are not confused. They are writing a ballot built office by office.
Enough movement toward Democrats would still be a national rebuke of the president’s party, and the House may well deliver one. The question is how far it reaches.
Both parties will have a clean story ready the morning after. If the results look anything like the polls, the map will be messier than either admits.