ARGENTINA · ECONOMY
Key Facts
- —What is happening Argentina’s consumer prices rose 1.9% in September from August, the national statistics office INDEC reported on Tuesday, 13 October, matching the forecast but faster than August’s 1.7%.
- —Why it matters The figure tests whether President Javier Milei can keep prices slowing before the 2027 election, since bringing monthly price rises down is the central goal of his economic programme.
- —The numbers INDEC puts annual inflation at 33.4%, down from 33.5% in August, with prices up 23.6% since December; the central bank’s official rate averaged 1,513.89 pesos per US$ in September, up 8.1% in a year.
- —Who is who INDEC is Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Census, the government agency that publishes official inflation data; Javier Milei, a libertarian economist, took office as president in December 2023 promising to end decades of high inflation.
- —What to watch INDEC will publish October consumer prices on Thursday, 12 November, showing whether the September pickup carried into October; the release did not say how the Economy Ministry or the central bank will respond.
- —Prediction markets Polymarket gives Milei a 55.0% chance of winning the 2027 presidential election (13 October, 3:04 p.m. ET).
- —What it means for you Argentina is more expensive in dollar terms for American travelers, with restaurant and hotel prices up 34.6% in a year against 8.1% for the official dollar, while US holders of Argentine bonds and YPF shares should watch interest rates and the peso.
Argentina’s consumer prices rose 1.9% in September, the national statistics office INDEC reported on Tuesday, 13 October. The monthly rate matched the 1.9% forecast but was faster than August’s 1.7%.
Argentina inflation came in at 1.9% for September, according to the National Institute of Statistics and Census (INDEC). For US investors in Argentine bonds and shares, it tests whether President Javier Milei can keep prices slowing before the 2027 election.
Annual inflation stood at 33.4%, compared with 33.5% in August, and prices have risen 23.6% since December. INDEC scheduled the release for 4 p.m. in Buenos Aires, or 3 p.m. on the US East Coast.
What Happened
INDEC, the government agency that measures prices, jobs and growth, published its September consumer price index on Tuesday afternoon. The index tracks what households across the country pay for food, rent, utilities, transport and other goods and services.
The 1.9% monthly rise was exactly what analysts had forecast. The annual rate eased to 33.4% from 33.5% in August, just above the 33.3% forecast.
Monthly inflation had eased to 1.7% in August from 2.1% in July, the lowest reading of 2026 until then. September’s 1.9% was faster than August but slower than July’s 2.1%.
The forecasts were set out in the preview Argentina Inflation Due Tuesday After 1.7% in August. That preview also flagged August’s 33.5% annual rate as the benchmark.
The Numbers
Core inflation, which leaves out seasonal and regulated prices, was 1.7%, driven by meals out and medicines. Regulated prices rose 2.3%, led by gas, electricity and private health plans, while seasonal items rose 2.9%, led by vegetables.
The largest increase was in housing, water, electricity, gas and other fuels, at 3.1%, followed by education at 3.0%. The smallest changes were in restaurants and hotels (1.1%) and clothing and footwear (1.4%).
Goods prices rose 1.7% and services prices 2.4% from August. In Greater Buenos Aires, the capital and its suburbs, prices rose 2.0%, while Patagonia had the lowest regional rate, at 1.4%.
A monthly rate of 1.9% would add up to about 25% over a year if it held steady. In September 2025, a year earlier, monthly inflation had been 2.1%.
What It Means for Milei and the Peso
Javier Milei, a libertarian economist, took office in December 2023 promising to end decades of high inflation. Bringing monthly price rises down remains the central goal of his economic programme.
The peso has moved far less than prices over the past year. The central bank’s official reference rate averaged 1,513.89 pesos per US$ in September, up 8.1% from 1,399.90 a year earlier.
That gap has made Argentina more expensive in dollar terms. Based on INDEC and central bank data, a peso-priced basket cost roughly 23% more in US dollars than a year earlier.
The reference rate, known as Comunicación A 3500, stood at 1,515.88 pesos per US$ on Friday, 9 October, its latest published value. A steady peso helps slow price rises, but it can also squeeze exporters and the tourism industry.
What It Means for US Readers
US funds hold Argentine dollar bonds and shares of Argentine companies listed in New York, such as the energy firm YPF. Inflation data shape expectations for local interest rates and the peso, which drive returns on those assets.
For American travelers, Argentina is no longer the bargain it was when the peso was weaker. Restaurant and hotel prices rose 34.6% in a year, while the official dollar rate rose only 8.1%.
Expats paid in dollars lose purchasing power when local prices outrun the exchange rate. Those paid in pesos face rising rent, utility and school costs, which INDEC tracks in separate groups.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, bettors gave Milei a 55.0% chance of winning the 2027 presidential election on 13 October at 3:04 p.m. ET. Axel Kicillof, the Peronist governor of Buenos Aires province, stood at 32.5%, in a market with about US$840,000 traded.
Before the release, a separate Polymarket contract on September inflation priced a 1.9% to 2.1% reading at 60.5%, with about US$33,000 traded. The official 1.9% landed in that favoured range, while 1.6% to 1.8% had stood at 33.5%.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The INDEC report does not say how the Economy Ministry or the central bank will respond to the figure. No official reaction was part of the release.
It is not known whether the September pace will hold in October. INDEC publishes measured prices only, not forecasts.
The dollar-terms comparison is an estimate based on monthly averages of the official rate. Prices in Argentina’s parallel dollar market and individual household costs can differ.
What Comes Next
INDEC will publish October consumer prices on Thursday, 12 November, according to its website. That report will show whether the September pickup carried into October.
Frequently Asked Questions
What Was Argentina’s Inflation Rate in September?
Consumer prices rose 1.9% from August, INDEC said on Tuesday, 13 October. The annual rate eased to 33.4% from 33.5% in August.
Was the Figure Higher or Lower Than Expected?
Analysts had forecast 1.9% for the month and 33.3% for the year. The monthly figure matched that forecast, while the annual rate came in slightly higher.
What Is INDEC?
INDEC is Argentina’s National Institute of Statistics and Census, the government agency that publishes official inflation, jobs and growth data. It releases the consumer price index once a month.
Is Argentina Getting More Expensive for US Visitors?
Yes, in dollar terms prices have risen faster than the official exchange rate over the past year. A peso-priced basket cost roughly 23% more in US dollars than in September 2025.
Why Does the Figure Matter for Milei?
Lowering inflation is the central goal of President Javier Milei’s economic programme ahead of the 2027 election. Polymarket bettors gave him a 55.0% chance of winning on 13 October.
Sources: INDEC, Índice de precios al consumidor, September 2026; INDEC, Índice de precios al consumidor, August 2026; INDEC consumer price index page; Banco Central de la República Argentina, Comunicación A 3500 reference rate (all accessed 13 October 2026).