BEIJING, Oct 24: President Xi Jinping and other top members of China's ruling Communist Party will meet in Beijing on Monday for a crucial gathering that could hint at the country's next generation of leaders.
The fifth plenary session of the party's Central Committee precedes the five-yearly party congress next year, where Xi will likely secure a fourth term.
- Why is the meeting important? -
Plenums are closed-door gatherings of the party's Central Committee -- the top 300 or so members -- where major national and party decisions are debated.
Monday's meeting is the fifth since this cohort was selected in 2022 and will focus on party governance.
That means implementing measures to make cadres more effective, less corrupt, and more loyal.
The plenum comes ahead of an expected leadership reshuffle at the 21st Party Congress in autumn 2027, where Xi, 73, is likely to secure another term as leader.
Previous plenums have represented key moments for Xi to cement his authority.
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A 2016 plenum enshrined him as the Party's "core", while the 2021 edition elevated Xi's doctrines and adopted a new resolution on party history.
This time, analysts speculate that Xi could bolster his authority by assuming the title "party chairman", a position Mao Zedong held.
- Why Xi worries about party discipline -
The meeting, which concludes on Thursday, will debate and adopt a decision on "full and rigorous party self-governance", with Xi keen to institutionalise discipline measures.
Xi remains frustrated with cadres not implementing his orders, despite a 14-year anti-corruption drive that has snared thousands of officials -- including dozens of Central Committee members.
"Xi sees anti-corruption as the key to the party's legitimacy, so he wants to continuously purify the party's ranks to make sure the CCP's rule can survive what other regimes couldn't," according to Daria Impiombato at the Mercator Institute for China Studies.
State media published an article ahead of the plenum, based on a speech Xi gave in January, in which he railed against "two-faced" officials who appear to comply with central directives but "inwardly resist", pursue "individualism" and are "politically opportunistic".
He also criticised "nice guy" officials who, in the name of preserving unity, fail to act when they find problems.
"Xi is trying to address the principal-agent problem that has plagued Chinese politics forever: how a centre that sets ever more priorities gets distant officials to carry them out as intended, when those officials control the information, face tightening budgets, and are rewarded for the appearance of compliance," said Jean Christopher Mittelstaedt, a sinologist at the University of Zurich.
"His answer is... more supervision and more rules -- but this is exactly what helped create the problem," he said.
- Will Xi pick a successor? -
Xi is almost certain to stay in charge after the 21st Party Congress, so analysts will instead study who is well placed to take other top jobs on the Politburo and its Standing Committee in 2027.
The Politburo has vacancies after Xi purged three members -- the most removed in a single term since 1980 -- but positions are rarely filled at a plenum.
Eight full-member vacancies currently exist on the Central Committee, with another 15 members under investigation who could be replaced.
Xi's purges mean this plenum is expected to have the lowest turnout since Mao's death in 1976.
- Who will run the military? -
The anti-corruption campaign has reached deep into the military, toppling five of the seven members of the Central Military Commission (CMC), the party's top armed forces body.
Of 44 military members appointed to the Central Committee in 2022, only two have not been purged or disappeared, according to the Asia Society Policy Institute.
This "total decapitation" of the military shows "just how frustrated (Xi) is and how mistrustful of the current leadership", according to Jonathan Czin at the Brookings Institution.
"Xi is clearly culling pretty much an entire generation of the general officer corps. This is sweeping. It makes Roman decimation look quaint by comparison," Czin said.
The plenum could see new members appointed to the CMC, the party could wait until next year's congress to repopulate it, or Xi might even restructure the Party's control over its vast military.