Unprecedented El Niño to hit Czechs in the wallet, experts say

Even before it has peaked, the present El Niño is breaking long-standing records.

Tropical Pacific Ocean states are set to take the brunt of its impact. But will its effects also be felt here in Czechia?

Michaela Kožmínová of think thank the Association for International Affairs was among the Czech experts who discussed El Niño at a presentation in Prague this week.

She says its impacts will chiefly be seen – after a certain delay – in the prices of some foodstuffs.

“Here we can talk, for example, about rice, because a lot of rice is exported from India, Vietnam and Thailand, where we can expect higher and hotter weather during El Niño. But to be honest, I cannot really predict how much the price will increase.

“What is even more probable is an increase in prices of cocoa and coffees, because these commodities are produced in countries that are also particularly impacted by the weather changes connected to El Niño.”

Tomáš Maier is from the Czech Agricultural University in Prague. He says it is unlikely that the Czech state will need to take action in the face of this unprecedented weather situation, and the expected knock-on effects on supply chain.

“I don’t think the influence of El Niño can be so strong. The government has some reserve of food, so I don’t think this is a problem.

“And don’t forget that we are part of the European Union. We are a member of the Common European Market, and also part of the global market.”

Tomáš Jungwirth Březovský heads the Climate Team at the Association for International Affairs. But he is also active in debunking disinformation, where El Niño – which comes around every two to seven years – is not a new topic.

“El Niño has been used for years by people like Václav Klaus as a pretext to claim that global warming, or the changing climate patterns we’re observing, even in Central Europe, are not a result of rising greenhouse gas concentrations, but rather some periodic atmospheric and climatic oscillations.

“So I think we will be having regular debunks of these issues. Maybe also in the sense of people claiming that the extreme heatwaves that we saw in the past summer in Czechia have also been caused, first and foremost, by El Niño. But we can actually quite easily show that that’s not the case.”

Jungwirth Březovský says he can’t predict the discourse once El Niño does peak – but it is possible the subject will gain even more traction.

“It seems El Niño will have a global impact. This will not only impact weather patterns but also value chains, prices and the production of key agricultural commodities, such as rice, soybeans, corn, etc.

“So in this context I think we will be seeing a lot of disinformation, or maybe just misinformation or false information, on issues related to the reasons for possible disruptions of production and trade chains, and also maybe an increase in prices.

“And I think we should also be one of those actors who try to bring facts into the conversation.”