As a very strong El Niño unfolds, households are likely to absorb much of the human and economic cost through lost income, higher prices, depleted savings and mounting debt.
Post-Disaster Needs Assessments from 20 countries in Asia and the Pacific show that around 40 per cent of disaster impacts occur in social and productive sectors, affecting housing, health, education and livelihoods.
The article argues that governments must turn accurate El Niño forecasts into actionable guidance for farmers, urban residents and small businesses.
Stronger household preparedness, concessional finance, insurance support and climate-responsive social protection can help families withstand shocks before they become disasters.
As a very strong El Niño unfolds, increasing the risk of severe weather into 2027, attention is rightly focused on whether governments have the fiscal capacity to sustain a prolonged response and recovery. Yet one important question receives less attention: who ultimately pays most of the disaster bill?
Households absorb much of the human and economic cost of disasters. Past El Niño events have shown how quickly climate shocks can cascade into livelihood impacts. Families pay through lost income, higher food and energy prices, mounting debt, depleted savings, disruption to work and schooling, and reduced spending on health and education.
This is not anecdotal. Post-Disaster Needs Assessments from 20 countries in Asia and the Pacific show that approximately 40 per cent of disaster impacts occur in social and productive sectors, affecting housing, health, education and subsistence livelihoods.
When disasters strike, households typically rely on a mixture of coping mechanisms: drawing down savings, borrowing money, receiving support from relatives or seeking government assistance. Poorer households often have fewer options and face longer recoveries.
The 2015-2016 El Niño illustrated these patterns, causing crop losses, food insecurity and malnutrition across Asia and the Pacific, with impacts persisting for months after the event ended.
This year’s International Day for Disaster Risk Reduction carries a timely message: Resilience Starts at Home. While households bear the greatest burden of preparing for, withstanding and recovering from disasters, governments have a crucial role in helping them build that capacity.
In the context of the current El Niño, three interventions deserve particular attention.
Strengthen risk knowledge and communication
El Niño forecasts have become increasingly accurate, with at least six months of lead time before major impacts on weather and seasons emerge. The challenge is to ensure that scientific information translates into actionable guidance.
Public trust is critical. During the 2015-2016 El Niño, governments remained the primary source of information on El Niño and its impacts. Trusted, timely and practical public communication is therefore more important than ever.
Farmers need guidance on crop selection and planting schedules. Urban residents need information on heat risks and possible disruptions to transport, water, electricity and public services. Small businesses need information that helps them manage supply-chain disruptions and operational risks.
But access to information is only as valuable as the capacity to act on it. Climate-risk information alone is often insufficient if households lack the means to respond.
Supporting households therefore requires coordinated action across government institutions. For example, when forecasts indicate drought conditions, farmers may need to switch to more drought-tolerant crops. Doing so often requires support from agricultural and water management agencies, cooperatives and extension services to access farm inputs, credit and markets.
Help households prepare before shocks strike
Households often underinvest in resilience because the costs are immediate while the benefits may not materialise for years.
Setting aside money for water storage facilities, home retrofits, insurance coverage, back-up power systems and other risk-reducing measures can be difficult when household budgets are already stretched. Poor and vulnerable households may also face barriers in accessing finance, risk information and other resources needed to take preventive action.
Public policy can create an enabling environment for households to act before shocks occur. Insurance support, concessional finance, risk-informed advisory services and public investment in climate-resilient infrastructure can make risk reduction more affordable and compelling.
Well-designed incentives, as part of broader household risk-management strategies, are particularly important for families that depend disproportionately on climate-sensitive livelihoods and lack savings, remittances or other financial buffers.
Strengthen climate-responsive social protection systems
Even with better information and stronger mitigation measures, the unprecedented intensity of the current El Niño could overwhelm some households. For these families, social protection functions as a form of disaster finance.
Well-designed social protection systems reduce the need for harmful coping strategies such as selling productive assets, withdrawing children from school or cutting essential health spending. Shock-responsive cash transfers and adaptive social assistance programmes can help households absorb temporary disruptions while also reducing poverty and inequality.
Climate shocks affect households differently. While lower-income rural households are disproportionately affected by climate hazards overall, urban households can also experience rising food prices, heat stress, service disruptions and higher living costs.
Effective resilience policies need to reflect the different ways in which climate shocks are experienced across households and communities, including the distinct challenges faced by women and vulnerable groups.
This year’s IDDRR theme recognises that resilience ultimately depends on the capacity of households to anticipate risks, absorb shocks and recover with dignity. Public policy plays a critical role in building that capacity.
By strengthening risk knowledge and anticipatory action, supporting household-level risk reduction and expanding climate-responsive social protection, governments can help families avoid the worst impacts, rather than simply recover after the fact.
As forecasts point to an exceptionally strong El Niño extending into 2027, the risks are unfolding against the long-term backdrop of an escalating climate crisis.
With 85 per cent of people in Asia and the Pacific exposed to multiple climate-related risks, building resilience at home is not just an El Niño response. It is one of the smartest investments governments can make for an increasingly unpredictable future.
Views expressed are the author’s own and don’t necessarily reflect those of Down To Earth