New Survey Shows 61% of Ukrainians Oppose Land for Peace Deal

More than 60% of Ukrainians consider handing Moscow all of eastern Ukraine’s Donbas region in exchange for security guarantees completely unacceptable, according to a new poll by the Kyiv International Institute of Sociology (KIIS).

The survey, conducted Oct. 8-16, found that 61% rejected the proposed concession, while 35% were prepared to accept it, most of them describing it as a difficult condition. Another 4% were undecided.

The institute said the findings showed no statistically significant change from late July and early August.

Opposition stood at 57% among respondents interviewed Oct. 8-9 and 62% among those interviewed Oct. 10-16, a period the institute described as following the announcement of the US’s “diesel deal” with Moscow and subsequent pressure on Ukraine.

KIIS cautioned that the difference fell within the margin of error and did not establish a shift in opinion.

“At least for now, the campaign of pressure on Ukraine has not led to greater willingness to accept this proposal,” the institute said.

Half or more of respondents in every region rejected withdrawing Ukrainian troops in exchange for security guarantees, a Kremlin war goal repackaged as peace terms in earlier US proposals.

Acceptance was highest in eastern Ukraine, where respondents were primarily residents of the Kharkiv region. There, 45% said they could accept the proposal, while 51% considered it completely unacceptable.

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In other regions, outright opposition ranged from 60% to 66%. In Kyiv, 66% rejected the proposal despite repeated Russian attacks on the capital, KIIS said.

President Volodymyr Zelensky warned in March that Ukraine’s withdrawal from the Donbas – which Russia has failed to capture militarily in 12 years – could free up Moscow’s manpower and pose more threats to the rest of Ukraine.

Who’s the obstacle to peace?

The survey also examined whether Ukrainians see their own government’s negotiating position or Russia’s ambitions as the main obstacle to peace. Researchers divided respondents into two groups to test how different question formats affected their answers.

In the first group, respondents assessed two statements separately. Some 20% agreed that Ukrainian authorities should make more concessions to reach an agreement with Russia, while 73% disagreed.

By contrast, 84% agreed that Russia wants to subjugate Ukraine and is therefore unwilling to accept a peace settlement that leaves it a sovereign state with a strong army. Twelve percent disagreed.

In the second group, respondents were asked to choose which of two statements they agreed with more. Some 78% chose the statement identifying Russia’s desire to subjugate Ukraine as the obstacle to peace. Twelve percent chose the statement that Ukrainian authorities were too uncompromising.

Washington has recently blamed Kyiv and Zelensky for the prolonged war, though the findings suggest most Ukrainians do not share the assessment that Kyiv should make more concessions to reach an agreement with Russia.

KIIS interviewed 1,031 Ukrainian citizens aged 18 and older by telephone, using randomly generated mobile phone numbers.

The survey covered people living in Ukrainian government-controlled territory, including internally displaced people. It excluded residents of Russian-occupied areas and Ukrainians who left the country after Feb. 24, 2022.

The full survey had a maximum formal margin of sampling error of 4 percentage points at the 95% confidence level, accounting for the survey design. For the questions asked separately of roughly half the sample, the maximum margin was 5.7 percentage points.