After slugging it out with the Romulans or the Borg, the first order of business for the Enterprise crew was damage assessment. We here at Overreaction HQ will try our hand at battle triage in the aftermath of one of the most chaotic college football Saturdays in recent memory.
The suboptimal outlooks for the Texas Longhorns and the Alabama Crimson Tide have been discussed extensively in this space and elsewhere in our publication, so we’ll devote our analysis here to five other College Football Playoff contenders whose aspirations took a hit. In most cases the damage was direct because of a loss, but we’ll also address a couple of hopefuls with injury concerns that managed to emerge victorious.
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We’ll begin with the latest squad to fall from the lofty perch of the No. 1 ranking.
Georgia
At first glance, a single SEC loss has only a negligible effect on the Bulldogs’ body of work. But the setback against Auburn could have more far-reaching implications than some of the other results from this crazy Saturday.
For one thing, the Tigers still seem unlikely to land in the upper half of the SEC standings, so Georgia supporters might have a hard time spinning it as a non-bad loss. But there’s a psychological aspect to the result that could ultimately be even more of a concern for Kirby Smart’s team. Just a week earlier, the Bulldogs had tasted their first brush with adversity at Alabama and survived Tuscaloosa with their unblemished record intact. Now the heir of invincibility is gone, and Georgia’s future opponents will have no qualms about mixing it up with them in the trenches. Fortunately the Bulldogs have a timely open date before key dates with Florida and Ole Miss, but they likely need to get at least one of those in the win column to feel good about their postseason goals.
Indiana
In the not-too-distant past, coming within a few inches of upending Ohio State would have been seen as a positive development by Hoosiers’ fans. But now with the raised bar of national championship expectations, the loss is a missed opportunity.
The bad news for IU now is there isn’t much heft on their resume. If they limit the damage to a single loss, which would then mean upcoming victories against the likes of Michigan and Southern California, they’ll probably be fine as far as the committee is concerned. A second stumble, however, and their body of work might not stack up well against other candidates.
Notre Dame
Last-minute controversy notwithstanding, not much has changed for the Fighting Irish on the whole with the loss at Brigham Young. As we noted prior to the start of the season, the path to an at-large playoff bid for Notre Dame involved no unexpected losses – so far so good in that regard – and going at least 2-1 against the trio of BYU, Miami and SMU.
The issue, of course, is the Irish now have to have both of those critical contests against those ACC contenders. On the plus side, they’re both in South Bend, but both will also view the Irish as a chance to bolster their own at-large cases. We’ve had that Nov. 7 date with the Hurricanes circled for months, and we don’t have to wait much longer.
Ohio State
The Buckeyes have the Indiana win in the bank, and they might end up needing it if QB Julian Sayin is indeed sidelined by a shoulder injury for an extended period. The good news is Ohio State has its open date this week, so freshman backup Luke Fahey will have some additional time to work with star WR Jeremiah Smith and the rest of the first-team offense before pivotal dates with Southern California and Oregon. Oh yeah, the Buckeyes’ next opponent after that, Northwestern, is also looking feisty. And, as we’ve already seen, strange things can happen in rivalry games like the season finale with that school in Ann Arbor. One loss out of that group likely won’t torpedo the Buckeyes, but two just might.
UCLA
We’ll look at one more candidate from the Big Ten, and it’s the one that was not on the radar when the campaign began. The Bruins passed their first test with QB Nico Iamaleava sidelined, getting by a streaking Wisconsin squad with a lock-down defensive effort. UCLA’s schedule sets up well up through the season ender against cross-town foe USC, but that’s the one in which they’ll probably have to score a lot more than 17 points to get by. They do have to go east a couple more times to Minnesota and Michigan, but neither of those are exactly presenting high-octane attacks this season. Of course, the catch 22 of a schedule that allows for a good win-loss record might also lack opportunities for quality victories, so UCLA can afford one slipup at most to feel comfortable.
Incidentally, sharp-eyed readers have undoubtedly noticed that Michigan and USC have appeared in all of the items involving Big Ten teams here. The Wolverines and Trojans will have a hard time working their own way back into the playoff picture, but both might have something to say about who does.
This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Fates of CFP contenders lead college football overreactions after Week 7 upsets