A turning point?

The 1st October of each year offers us an auspicious opportunity to reflect on the valiant struggle our forebears waged to wrest independence from British colonialists and to assess our storied journey to nationhood since 1960.

The 1stt of October 2026 was not an exception. The President, Chief Bola Ahmed Tinubu, followed in the footsteps of his predecessors. Unsurprisingly, and in anticipation of the impending General Elections of 2027, in which he seeks a second term, he painted a salubrious and splendid picture of the Nigerian union. He proceeded, with verve, to promise a prosperous future.

But before then, he had prefaced the advent of a rosy prospect by savaging his predecessors. He claimed that, “For too long, the promise of Nigeria was undermined by choices that postponed difficult decisions and allowed deep economic distortions to grow”.

He also claimed that “By 2023, poverty was rising, and hope was nearly gone. The country’s situation was darker than ever. We had no choice but to act”.

Deploying an analogy that equated with or likened Nigeria to a terminally ill cancer patient who required drastic treatment, the President alleged that: ”For too long, Nigeria’s leaders chose morphine while praying for a miracle that never came”.

Taking headlong the critics of his withdrawal of subsidy from petrol, the President argued:”…certain influential but regressive voices would have us abandon the treatment and return ourselves to the abuse of addictive subsidies…”

Thumping his chest, the President said:”Three and a half years later, the evidence that Nigeria’s economic outlook has improved is undeniable”. To buttress his point, he argued:”Our economy has grown by over 4 percent this year. Both oil and non-oil sectors have contributed to the renewed period of stable growth”.

Latching onto the aforementioned, the President announced that the country had arrived at what he referred to as “a turning point”. Not done, he proclaimed that Nigeria had passed through its tempestuous Red Sea, and that it was setting its sights on a Promised Land of “shared and widespread prosperity”.

It is valid to say, as the President did, that Nigeria was in dire straits when he assumed office in May 2023. But until his most recent independence anniversary speech, he had not been forthcoming on the state of the economy as bequeathed to his administration. Instead, shortly after he was sworn in, it was his allies and proxies such as Adams Oshiomhole, David Umahi and Professor Charles Chukwuma Soludo, who spoke to how parlors the economy was. This writer’s surmise is that Buhari was alive and it was not politic or judicious, at the time, to indict his predecessor of the same, governing party. Now, President Tinubu, Muhammadu Buhari’s  self-proclaimed reincarnate, has found it convenient to be voluble. This is evocative of Nikita Khrushchev’s epic put down of Joseph Stalin on February 25, 1956.

There is no doubting it that some of President Tinubu’s predecessors may have come short and that their failings called for urgent and stalwart interventions. But it is uncharitable, outlandish and unpresidential to issue a blanket denunciation of one’s predecessors as he did.

This is more so that the facts do not bear or justify his damning rebuke. Instead, and as a matter fact, historical records cast him as self-righteous and less than generous. Consider: In 1999, former President Olusegun Obasanjo inherited foreign reserves of $4.99 billion. By 2007, he had grown these abysmally low reserves to $43.17. Even though this figure is tame when compared with the reserves of China and the United States, it was a feat nonetheless. This is because his government did not borrow to shore up these reserves as is common practice today. In the same vein, Nigeria’s growth rate in 2003 and 2007 were 9.5% and 6.59% respectively. The Tinubu administration, in spite of its crowing, and by its own advertised records, is yet to reach these peaks.

In 2003 and 2007, the Naira exchanged between 114 and 122; and 124 and 125 respectively. As at Tuesday, 6th October 2026, the Naira exchanged at 1,327.58 to the U.S. Dollar. This is despite President Tinubu’s avowed “correction” of the economy.

In spite of the withdrawal of subsidy on petrol since May 2023, which has increased government revenue by nearly four-fold, and the windfall arising from the on-going America/Israel Versus Iran War, put at N5 trillion, Nigeria is owing N166.79 trillion or $120.93 billion, and counting. Compare this humongous debt to the paltry debt of $3.35 billion being owed by Nigeria as at Q2 of 2007.

These figures explain lucidly why in 2003, Nigerians were declared as the happiest people in the world by the World Values Survey. This trajectory continued up to 2010/2011 when Gallup Poll showed high levels of optimism amongst Nigerians. Contrast these relatively good times with the angst and despair that have overtaken the country.

By referencing those who upbraid or question the withdrawal of subsidy from oil as “regressive voices”, the President comes across as unkind and ungracious. He also presents his policies as if they were, like the Ten Commandments, set in stone and are thus not liable to being interrogated. But as the eminent economist, Professor Sam Aluko once said, even to death, there is an alternative.

Petroleum, since Almighty God blessed us with it, has been fundamental and key to our economy and growth. Its impact has been so ubiquitous as to determine how we transport goods and how people move from one point to the other. This is not to add the fact that it affects nearly everything associated with the cost of living. Our putting premium on it is thus appropriate, if not inevitable. We should therefore get used to people interrogating how its proceeds are receipted and utilised rather than getting our danders up anytime we are asked to account.

In spite of the economic growth of “over 4 per cent”, touted with relish by the President, this has not translated into any improvement in the lives of millions of Nigerians. Instead, millions of Nigerians have succumbed to grinding poverty on President Tinubu’s watch. Which is why even though the !st of October coincides with the beginning of the tenth month on our calendar, most Nigerians preferred to felicitate with their compatriots for reaching that milestone, as the inception of the month, rather than celebrating Nigeria’s independence anniversary. The reason is not far-fetched: First of October 2026 is bleak, and it merely reminds Nigerians of the failure of the government to deliver good governance.

Inundated further with promises of shared prosperity and other goodies, Nigerians are poignantly reminded that the subsidised Compressed Natural Gas (CNG) buses, which the President promised would suffuse the country and bring down transport costs by 1st October, were sighted only in a handful of states.

More poignant is that the speech, long on promises and assuming a campaign hue, did not reference our heightened insecurity. Neither did it allude to the thousands of Nigerians languishing in kidnappers’ dens, strewn across the country, or of millions of others pinning away in Internally Displaced Persons (IDP) camps. By the accounting of the Daily Trust of September 30, 2026, not less than 800 Nigerians were abducted by bandits in the past three months alone!

If Nigerians have reached a turning point, especially on the premises bandied by the President in his anniversary speech, this writer must have deep misgivings if they have done so for the better.

Dazang, a seasoned resides in Abuja.