Daily Time
The UN has sounded the alarm over an El Niño phenomenon that could become the strongest on record, warning that its consequences may linger well into 2027. Speaking in Geneva on Wednesday, World Meteorological Organisation chief Celeste Saulo said temperatures in the tropical Pacific could rise 3.8 degrees Celsius above average between November and January, surpassing the previous record of 2.6 degrees in 2015-16. UN humanitarian chief Tom Fletcher warned that as many as 50 million people could face increased hunger. For countries already struggling with food insecurity, the forecast makes for a grim reading.
Pakistan has particular reason to pay attention. Earlier this month, the Indus River System Authority approved a 22 per cent irrigation water shortage for Punjab and Sindh during the Rabi season. Wheat production last season was estimated at 27.5 million tonnes against domestic requirements of 31.9 million tonnes, forcing the government to arrange imports. Farmers are already contending with expensive inputs, uncertain returns and dwindling water supplies. Another spell of unfavourable weather could make matters considerably worse.
El Niño alters rainfall and temperature patterns across the world, bringing drought to some regions and excessive rainfall to others. Its effects on Pakistan cannot be predicted from Pacific temperatures alone. Much will depend on regional weather systems and the behaviour of the monsoon. Even so, the Pakistan Meteorological Department had warned earlier this year of the developing phenomenon and its possible implications for South Asia. There is little excuse for allowing the latest forecast to catch the authorities flat-footed.
Pakistan has paid dearly for climatic disasters. The 2022 floods affected 33 million people and caused more than $30 billion in economic damage and losses. Subsequent flooding has further strained public resources. The country has learnt, at enormous expense, how quickly a natural calamity can wipe out livelihoods, disrupt food supplies and push already vulnerable households deeper into poverty. Yet far too much attention still goes towards relief and rehabilitation after disaster strikes.
There has been welcome progress in disaster forecasting. During his visit to the National Disaster Management Authority earlier this month, UN Secretary-General António Guterres acknowledged Pakistan’s improved early-warning capabilities. The harder task is ensuring that these forecasts reach farmers, district administrations and communities in time to make a difference.
At the end of the day, El Niño-related crop failures elsewhere could push up international food prices when Pakistan’s foreign exchange position leaves little breathing space. The UN has already released $50 million for advance assistance to 11 vulnerable countries. Islamabad should likewise put preventive financing, water conservation and agricultural advisories higher on its list of priorities.
There is no shortage of warnings now. Forewarned is forearmed, provided somebody acts on the warning. *