Air yards, whether we like it or not — and most fantasy folks definitely do not like it — are a good measure of a pass catcher’s opportunity and the type of passing volume in a given offense. That air yards don’t always translate into real, edible receiving yards is just part of our frustrating little game. We make small bets here and there and hope things break right from week to week and prove our process correct more often than not. It’s not any more complicated than that, even if we desperately want it to be.
Over the past few seasons I have used this space to talk mostly about guys with exceptionally high or low touchdown rates. Air yards has mostly been a side issue in the Regression Files. That will change in 2026: I want Regression Files to be your weekly go-to for (freely available) air yards data and what it means for your various fantasy football teams.
Thanks to my friend and fellow football analytics nerd Brad Beatson, we have a more organized way of not only tracking air yards data, but a measure of which pass catchers are seeing accurate targets and which guys are not. The latter phenomenon is known in nerdy football circles as Prayer Yards, or inaccurate passes that technically award a bunch of air yards to a given receiver who rarely has a chance of converting those air yards into real yards as the football sails over their head or out of bounds or wherever else.
In this space I’m going to look powerfully into total team air yards trends, players seeing plentiful prayer yards, and those who are outperforming their air yards profile and (perhaps) due for the bad kind of regression.
Total Team Air Yards
Below is a quick look at league leaders in total team air yards through five weeks of the regular season.
New England Patriots
Drake Maye is back to his 2025 form, doing that thing where he stands in the pocket and throws deep with a lot of touch, unlike his generational counterparts who try to make every throw a 93 MPH fastball. Maye, like Jordan Love, is an effective downfield passer largely because he’s willing to put some dang air under the ball. But I digress, and I never digress.
The Patriots over the past two weeks, with Maye and the team’s offense operating more smoothly, has 691 total team air yards, the third most in the NFL. The Pats lead the league over those two games with an 11.4 average depth of target and rank seventh in pass rate over expected. It’s a nice little formula for generating lots and lots of air yards.
A.J. Brown is set to return this week from the highest ankle sprain in recorded history. That will have an outsized impact on the New England pass catchers who have benefited the most from the team’s air yards outburst, guys like DeMario Douglas and Kyle Williams, who refers to himself in the third person and who knows the enemy speaks kindly and holds a knife. Even with Brown sidelined in Week 5, Douglas ran a route on 55 percent of the Patriots’ drop backs while Williams’ route rate was stuck at 33 percent.
Efton Chism, who ran a pass route on 64 percent of the team’s drop backs in Week 5 against the Raiders, could be an underrated winner of the Patriots’ air yards bump if his playing time continues to climb with Brown’s return. Targeted on a team-high 24 percent of his routes over the past two games, Chism is someone to monitor in 12-team PPR formats.
Pittsburgh Steelers
Our air yards kings let us down in Week 5 against the Colts, producing a meager 120 total air yards, the third lowest air yards total of the week. It was Germie Bernard — not DK Metcalf — who led the Steelers with a 48 percent air yards share against the Colts.
Bernard ran a route on 78 percent of the team’s drop backs because Roman Wilson exited with some kind of hand/wrist injury and Michael Pittman, Jr. is on IR. It’s not all bleak for the Steelers though. They were 11 percent above their expected pass rate against the Colts. Aaron Rodgers reverted to check-down mode, averaging 5 air yards per attempt after passing at a clip of 9.2 air yards per attempt over the season’s first four games. It’s a curious thing, as the Colts coming into Week 5 had seen the third most air yards against them.
Bernard has a real chance to reap all the various statistical benefits of a pass-first offense generating gobs of air yards in almost every kind of game script.
Arizona Cardinals
Mike LaFleur tried to be balanced and conservative and whatnot to start the season. He quickly found out what fantasy managers have long known: Jacoby Brissett was made to produce nonstop air yards.
The Cardinals, who ranks fourth in total team air yards over the past two weeks, are going to have no choice but to let it rip on offense. That’s thanks mostly to a defense that can neither stop the run nor the pass. It’s a bad combination, per my spreadsheets. Arizona’s defense is allowing the third highest EPA per play and the sixth highest success rate this season. Only four teams allow a higher red zone touchdown rate, and only the Cowboys are giving up a higher rate of adjusted yards per play.
This, of course, will fuel air yards for Michael Wilson and Trey McBride. And with Marvin Harrison, Jr. dispatched to Houston, look for Kendrick Bourne to benefit from the air yards avalanche. It is my solemn duty to tell you Jalen Brooks was second on the team in air yards in Week 5 against the Lions. He ran 58 percent of the team’s routes and his 12.9 aDOT suggests he could be the MHJ replacement in the Arizona offense.
New York Giants
I didn’t quite anticipate the post-Dart Giants offense to be an ocean of air yards. But that’s exactly what’s happened over the past month: Only five offenses have produced more air yards than the Giants over the past four weeks. Against the Commanders in Week 5 they led the NFL with 490 total team air yards.
Those air yards are primarily funneling to two guys, as you probably know. Malik Nabers over the team’s past three games has seen a 47 percent air yards share while Isaiah Likely has accounted for 25 percent of the air yards. Both Nabers and Likely are being targeted on 30 percent of their pass routes. That’s … really something.
Darnell Mooney is third on the team with a 20 percent air yards share since Week 3. He would be a big beneficiary of a Nabers or Likely injury.
Here’s a look at NFL offenses with the fewest air yards through Week 5.
Denver Broncos
The Broncos had a league-low 111 total air yards in Sean Payton’s first game after predictably taking play-calling duties from Davis Webb. I was hoping Payton would ratchet up the PROE Machine in his glorious return to calling plays. He did not, as the Broncos were 10 percent below their expected pass rate in Week 5 against the Chargers.
Only Miami was more run-heavy in Week 5. Nevertheless, we persist.
Courtland Sutton led the Broncos with a grand depressing total of 34 air yards in Week 5. Evan Engram was second with 33. Jaylen Waddle was third with 22 air yards. Through five weeks, Waddle ranks 40th among wideouts in air yards, just ahead of Kayshon Boutte and Tre Harris. I guess you have to keep playing Waddle in 12-team formats but you might find a suitable replacement on the wire in 10-team leagues.
Tennessee Titans
You’re sitting there asking me, the Regression Files guy, where my god is now because Carnell Tate — last week’s Regression Files cover guy — had six receiving yards in Week 5 against the Texans.
This is where I tell you that actually, I was right about Tate because he racked up 114 air yards against the Texans, the 11th most of Week 5. He accounted for a cool 42 percent of the Titans’ air yards against Houston. I can’t help it if Cam Ward is the worst NFL quarterback in living memory! Leave me alone.
Keep playing Tate in 12-team leagues. In Week 6 he gets a Colts defense allowing the eighth most total air yards this season. We’ll just have to see if things can’t get worse for the rookie.
▶ Prayer Yards Warriors (Players who could see positive regression)
Michael Wilson
Prayer Yards Rate: 69 percent
I know you’re frustrated about Wilson posting a measly 40 yards against the atrocious Detroit secondary in Week 5. This isn’t the way it was supposed to go. Wilson, with Marvin Harrison, Jr. traded to some team not publicly known as of Sunday morning, was supposed to easily cross the 100-yard mark against the Lions.
Here’s something that won’t make you feel any better: Wilson is seventh among all receivers in air yards this season. He has a few more than JSN. Wilson’s 38 percent air yards share ranks 15th among wideouts. Only a dozen receivers have a higher rate of first-read targets than Wilson, and thanks to Arizona’s pass heaviness over the past couple weeks, only six wideouts have more raw first-read targets. Against the Lions, Wilson had 102 air yards, the 18th most of Week 5.
The opportunity for Wilson is absolutely there. The process in which these air yards are converted into usable receiving yards — the kind that serve as a balm on your enflamed frustration — just hasn’t been there quite yet. Stay patient. Maybe look into one of those guided meditation videos on YouTube. That’s my expert advice.
Rashid Shaheed
Prayer Yards Rate: 73 percent
Shaheed has two things working against him: JSN is once again devouring all the air yards (and target) in the Seahawks offense and Shaheed is running cold on his air yards conversion rate.
Shaheed has 87 air yards on nine targets over the past three games, and on the season he has 62 completed air yards and 164 incomplete air yards. If the Seahawks ever ramp up their passing attack — they rank 29th in pass rate over expected through Week 5 — Shaheed could be in line to cash in on whatever air yards are left over after JSN is done gorging himself.
Dolphins WRs
Malik Willis, the most inaccurate passer in football, remains a font of prayer yards. Chris Bell, the poor guy, has 238 incomplete air yards to just 55 completed air yards this season. His prayer yards rate this past week inched up to over 81 percent. The regression for Bell is going to get here … eventually.
Malik Washington, meanwhile, has a 62 percent prayer yards rate. In Week 5 against the Bengals, Washington led the Dolphins with 107 air yards (33 percent share), which translated to six catches for 43 scoreless yards.
The miserable Dolphins are 14th in total team air yards. That’s quite the surprise. It leaves (some fleeting) hope that Bell and/or Washington could be viable for fantasy purposes at some point in 2026. They’re calling this “the least actionable advice of Week 6.”
▶ Bullseye Enjoyers (Players who could see negative regression)
Rashod Bateman (BAL)
Bullseye rate: 69 percent
A wideout with a 12.5 aDOT should not have a bullseye rate of nearly 70 percent. Bateman, who had a decent game on Sunday night against the Falcons, is running hotter than a data center in Louisiana at the moment.
Just 82 of Bateman’s 258 air yards on the season have gone incomplete. His air yards conversion rate is in line with short-area guys like Kalif Raymond, Ladd McConkey, and Efton Chism III. This is me telling you, the good and intelligent Regression Files enthusiast, not to get carried away with Bateman in the coming weeks.
Jaylin Noel (HOU)
Bullseye rate: 94 percent
In this Halloween season, perhaps we can credit the dark arts of Noel converting 169 of his 179 air yards through Week 5. I don’t know how else to explain it, and neither do my spreadsheets, which just show a bubbling witch’s cauldron every time I search for Noel.
Noel in Week 5 against the Titans caught all five of his targets for 41 yards and a touchdown. That’s nice. His best ball drafters partied in Berlin for 24 hours after the score. Just know that Noel -- running about half the routes in the Houston offense -- has the highest bullseye rate in the league and an aDOT around 12. That can’t sustain.
Laquon Treadwell (IND)
Bullseye rate: 47 percent
I was torn about putting Treadwell in this space since his air yards profile has become far more interesting since Alec Pierce’s heel injury. Last week he was top-10 among all wideouts in air yards and led the Colts with a 27 percent air yards share (he had two catches for 34 yards). A 47 percent bullseye rate isn’t outrageous for many receivers. For a downfield guy with an aDOT near 14, it’s a red flag at best.
Treadwell over Indy’s past two games has a team-leading 28 percent air yards share. He is at worst the designated air yards eater in the Colts offense for now. That’s not a terrible role, and with a little improvement from Daniel Jones, it could be a nice little role, if full of variance.
Good Air Yards Matchups: Week 6
Raiders vs. Bills
BUF air yards allowed per game: 376.6 (2nd)
BUF neutral pass rate against: 57 percent (12th)
BUF pass rate over expected against: +1.4 percent (14th)
Both of these defenses are giving away air yards like I give away advice at the driving range after two straight drives down the middle (people love it; they hardly ever call for the range manager). The Raiders have allowed the fifth most air yards per game this season. Vegas opponents have posted positive PROEs in four of five games, which makes sense considering the Raiders allow the NFL’s seventh highest drop back success rate. Perhaps this means the Bills offense can get back to their pass-happy ways in Week 6, as we discussed on Tuesday’s Rotoworld Football Show.
Texans vs. Jaguars
JAC air yards allowed per game: 345.6 (6th)
JAC neutral pass rate against: 64 percent (2nd)
JAC pass rate over expected against: +2.3 percent (9th)
Here we have another matchup between two pass funnel defenses seeing air yards blitzes against them nearly every Sunday. Both Houston and Jacksonville have, for the most part, snuffed out opposing rushing attacks. Since neither team has a game-breaking running backs, look for both sides to air it out here. I suppose that could keep Jaylin Noel afloat, along with Dalton Schultz. Jakobi Meyers and Brenton Strange would benefit on the Jags’ side of things.
Bears vs. Falcons
ATL air yards allowed per game: 392 (1st)
ATL neutral pass rate against: 60 percent (6th
ATL pass rate over expected against: +7.8 percent (3rd)
Atlanta has become the league’s most extreme pass funnel over the past three weeks. Sometimes that happens because a team’s secondary is vulnerable. In this case it’s because the Falcons’ run defense is terrifyingly effective. With Caleb Williams likely to return, look for the Bears — who have gone over their expected pass rate in three of five games — to see a bump in pass attempts and air yards in Week 6. It could be enough to achieve the impossible: Fantasy-viable games for Luther Burden and Colston Loveland.