Key Facts
- Order: Spain’s Supreme Court told two ministers to name 163,020 new citizens whose vote is suspended.
- Deadline: Before 3 p.m. Madrid time (10 a.m. ET) on Wednesday, 28 October 2026.
- Penalty: A €1,000 fine (about US$1,120) on each minister, and a possible criminal inquiry.
- Vote: Spain elects a new parliament on Sunday, 29 November 2026.
- Prediction markets: Kalshi: Feijóo 78%, Sánchez 19% to be prime minister (as of 7:55 a.m. ET (1:55 p.m. Madrid) on Saturday, 24 October).
Spain’s Supreme Court has given two government ministers until Wednesday, 28 October to hand over the names of 163,020 people whose right to vote has been suspended, according to Spanish reports on 23 October. The order feeds into the Spain Election 2026 dossier, five weeks before the 29 November general election.
The people affected became Spanish citizens under the 2022 “grandchildren’s law”, which lets descendants of Spaniards who fled dictatorship claim citizenship. Many live abroad, so the dispute reaches voters far from Spain.
What the Court Ordered
The order went to Félix Bolaños, the minister for the Presidency and Justice, and José Manuel Albares, the foreign minister. It asks them to send the names of the 163,020 people registered in the overseas voters’ census who were naturalised under the law.
The court warned of a €1,000 fine (about US$1,120 at the RT market data rate of 1.12 dollars per euro) on each minister personally. It also warned that failure to comply could lead to a criminal investigation.
How We Got Here
As an interim measure, the Supreme Court has suspended the vote of these new citizens. It is reviewing a government directive that had presumed they qualified as descendants of exiles.
Under the suspension, only people with a consular certificate proving an ancestor’s exile can vote on 29 November. Affected parties were given five days to file objections.
In Plain English
Supreme Court: Spain’s top ordinary court, which is handling the case.
Grandchildren’s law: a 2022 law that lets descendants of Spanish exiles claim citizenship.
Election Calendar
Parties can file candidate lists until Monday, 26 October. The official gazette publishes the lists on 28 October, the same day as the court deadline.
Candidates are proclaimed on 2 November, and the proclamation is published on 3 November. Congress has 350 seats, so a majority needs 176.
Polls
The newest private poll, by IMOP for El Confidencial, was published on 23 October and surveyed voters from 13 to 16 October. It gave the conservative People’s Party (PP) 28.5%, the Socialists (PSOE) 27.1% and the conservative nationalist party Vox 20.0%.
IMOP projects 123 seats for the PP, 113 for PSOE and 72 for Vox. The state-run Centre for Sociological Research, led by José Félix Tezanos, is an outlier: its barometer of 14 October put PSOE at 34.0% and the PP at 22.2%.
What Prediction Markets Say
- Kalshi, prime minister after the election (22,455 contracts traded): Alberto Núñez Feijóo 78%, Pedro Sánchez 19%, Santiago Abascal 3%.
- Polymarket, winner of the Spanish election (about US$165,700 traded): PP 76%.
Prices are the implied probability of each outcome as of 7:55 a.m. ET (1:55 p.m. Madrid) on Saturday, 24 October. They are real-money bets, not polls, and Kalshi is regulated in the US by the CFTC.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What It Means for US Readers
Spain is a NATO member and one of the euro area’s large economies, so a change of government in Madrid would matter to investors and diplomats. A fight over who may vote also resembles US disputes over voter rolls and court deadlines close to an election.
Watch 28 October: a missed deadline or a court ruling on the list would show whether the 163,020 can vote at all. Markets and most private polls point to a PP-led result, but they say nothing about turnout among these voters.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether the ministries will meet the 28 October deadline, or whether any fine will be imposed. Reports do not say whether any of the 163,020 will be restored to the roll before 29 November.
The effect on the election timetable is also unclear. Polls cannot say how many of these voters would have taken part.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Spain’s Supreme Court order?
It ordered two ministers to send the court the names of 163,020 people naturalised under the “grandchildren’s law”. The deadline is before 3 p.m. Madrid time (10 a.m. ET) on Wednesday, 28 October.
What happens if the ministers do not comply?
The court warned of a €1,000 fine (about US$1,120) on each minister personally, and of a possible criminal investigation. Whether any penalty will be imposed is not known.
Why can these people not vote?
The Supreme Court suspended their voting rights as an interim measure while it reviews a government directive. Only people with a consular certificate proving an ancestor’s exile can vote on 29 November.
When is Spain’s general election?
It is on Sunday, 29 November 2026. Candidate lists can be filed until Monday, 26 October.
What do prediction markets say?
On Kalshi, Alberto Núñez Feijóo is at 78% to become prime minister, with Pedro Sánchez at 19%. These are bets, not polls.
Sources: Infobae, Estrella Digital, Moncloa, Electográfica (IMOP), Kalshi, Polymarket. Related: Spain election polls, earlier report on the 163,000 voters.
Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief · Editorial standards · Report an error
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