Nigeria’s Finance Ministry has rejected claims that $12.4bn is missing from the country’s external accounts, saying the figure identified by the World Bank represents a statistical discrepancy rather than evidence of lost or withheld oil revenues.
In an October 20 statement, the ministry disputed interpretations of the World Bank’s October 2026 Nigeria Development Update, which recorded negative net errors and omissions of $12.4bn in the first half of the year.
The figure is a balance-of-payments residual used to reconcile discrepancies between independently collected international transaction data, rather than an identifiable sum of missing money.
The World Bank said the residual was “likely reflecting in part oil export proceeds that were not repatriated”, while also citing gaps in the recording of cross-border financial flows. It did not quantify how much of the $12.4bn was linked to oil.
The ministry’s response followed demands by the opposition African Democratic Congress (ADC) for a public reconciliation of the discrepancy. In an October 17 statement, ADC national publicity secretary Bolaji Abdullahi called on President Bola Tinubu to disclose oil-backed loans and crude pledged as collateral and to release current net reserve figures. “President Tinubu must open the books,” he said.
“It does not mean money has gone missing, been stolen or been withheld,” the ministry said in a statement signed by Maryann Duke-Okon, senior special assistant on communications and press secretary to the finance minister.
Oil proceeds and data gaps
The ministry cited informal remittances, unrecorded cross-border trade, delayed export payments and incomplete financial reporting as possible explanations.
It estimated that $10bn a year in remittances moves through informal channels or stays abroad, never reaching banks or reserves, potentially contributing to differences between recorded income and foreign-exchange receipts.
Formal remittance channels have nonetheless strengthened. Inflows through international money transfer operators reached a record $947mn in July and totalled $3.8bn in the first seven months of 2026, up 50.2% year on year, according to the Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN).
Oil cargoes are recorded when lifted but are often paid for 30 to 90 days later, the ministry said. Oil partners may also lawfully hold proceeds abroad, while crude-for-loan cargoes repay lenders offshore.
The largest such arrangement is Project Gazelle, a crude-oil prepayment facility arranged by the African Export-Import Bank under which state-owned Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited (NNPCL) pledged 90,000 barrels per day (bpd). In August, the National Economic Council approved a proposed $4.5bn refinancing that would reduce the pledged volume to 78,750 bpd, releasing the proceeds of 11,250 bpd to the Federation Account, IntelliNews reported.
The ministry did not quantify how much these factors contributed to the $12.4bn discrepancy.
Nigeria has recorded negative net errors and omissions in seven of the past eight years, according to World Bank data cited by the ministry. The balance ranged from a positive $17bn in 2020 to a negative $24.9bn in 2023.
External reserves rise despite discrepancy
The ministry cited a $12bn current account surplus in the first half of 2026 and an increase in gross foreign reserves from $45.5bn at the end of 2025 to $53.8bn at the end of August.
The World Bank’s October 2026 Nigeria Development Update attributed the stronger external position partly to higher oil prices and export earnings. The surplus was equivalent to about 7% of gross domestic product (GDP), up from $8.6bn a year earlier. Provisional CBN data put the surplus at $4.49bn in the first quarter and $7.54bn in the second, when the overall balance of payments recorded a $3.51bn surplus.
Reserves have continued to climb, reaching $55.25bn on September 18, their highest level since 2008 and equivalent to about 11.3 months of import cover, according to the CBN.
However, the World Bank found that the $12.4bn residual offset much of the combined current account surplus and net financial inflows, limiting reserve accumulation. Foreign portfolio investment, almost entirely in fixed-income instruments, was a major driver of reserve growth, accounting for 45% of gross inflows through the official foreign-exchange market between January and August, according to ThisDay. Net portfolio inflows reached $12.2bn in the first half.
The World Bank put net reserves at $34.8bn at the end of 2025 and said it had no more recent estimate, limiting its assessment of usable buffers.
The ministry said the accounts remained provisional and could be revised as further company and bank data became available. It pledged to work with the CBN and other agencies to improve the recording of external transactions.
See IntelliNews: Nigeria’s FX reserves climb to $55.25bn, highest since 2008
See IntelliNews: Nigeria’s wider goods surplus lifts Q2 current account to $7.54bn
See IntelliNews: Nigeria approves proposed $4.5bn Project Gazelle refinancing