The Israeli defense establishment has in recent days been increasing its vigilance against Iran and its proxies in the Middle East, fearing the outbreak of a military confrontation during the most sensitive time ahead of Israel's general elections and the US mid-term elections.
At this point, there is no concrete intelligence indicating intentions by Iran or Hezbollah to attack Israel. However, the IDF is keeping a close watch on regional developments, particularly the ballistic missile and drone tests that Iran has been conducting since last week.
Israel's main worry is not a planned decision by Tehran to start a war, but rather an unintended escalation. The defense establishment fears that a limited action by Iran, the Houthis, or another proxy would draw a strong Israeli response, which would spark a larger wave of fighting.
Another scenario concerning defense officials is miscalculating the other side's intentions. In such a situation, Israel and Iran may interpret preparatory defensive measures as proof of an attack, and act out of fear that the other side is going to strike first.
The security tensions are also compounded by the political calendar. Israel’s Knesset elections are expected to take place in 12 days, while the US midterm elections will be held on November 3.
The prevailing assessment in Israel is that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and US President Donald Trump would prefer to avoid launching an offensive against Iran before the elections, due to the military and political risks involved. However, the possibility of a strike on Iran remains on the table.
Netanyahu warned in an interview with Channel 14 on Thursday: “If Iran attacks us, it will make the mistake of its life. We also have the ability to act independently, and I would not advise any of our enemies to test us. In any way."
IDF Chief of Staff Lt. Gen. Eyal Zamir also addressed the tensions during a situational assessment held at Central Command this week, warning: “In light of the large number of alerts across all arenas and the sensitivity of this period, the potential for escalation has increased."