Saturday night’s thrilling 17-14 win over Nebraska (5-2, 2-2 Big Ten) wasn’t enough to land the Oregon Ducks (4-2, 2-1 Big Ten) back inside the AP Top 25. But they kept their College Football Playoff hopes alive.
Coach Dan Lanning’s squad is not alone among two-loss teams, yet the Ducks are the only unranked team among five other two-loss contenders, receiving just 79 points in the latest poll.
So how does Oregon’s postseason resume stack up against five ranked, two-loss SEC teams, including No. 13 Alabama (5-2, 3-2 SEC), No. 18 LSU (5-2, 2-2 SEC) and No. 19 Texas (4-2, 1-2 SEC), as well as No. 20 Florida (5-2, 3-2 SEC) and No. 22 Missouri (5-2, 2-2 SEC)?
The Ducks’ strength of schedule and the quality of their wins and losses suggest otherwise. But it’s complicated.
Oregon Ducks’ College Football Playoff Credentials
Losses to No. 9 UCLA (6-0, 4-0 Big Ten) and Oklahoma State (4-2, 2-1 Big 12) have dropped Oregon from the AP Top 25. The Ducks’ 79 points are the most among unranked teams other than the Cowboys, who defeated Oregon 39-31 in Week 2.
The data, however, paints a different picture, particularly the Massey Ratings, which account for the strength of opponents already faced.
According to Massey, Oregon ranks No. 16 nationally in strength of schedule, boasting a road win over then-No. 12 USC and home victories over Nebraska and No. 21 Boise State (5-1, 2-0 Pac-12).
Remove the Portland State game, and every team that Lanning’s squad has faced this season has received votes in the AP Poll Top 25 at some point.
The losses to the Bruins and Cowboys will linger. But how damaging will they be when up against some of the SEC’s dynamic two-loss teams in a battle for the final spots in the College Football Playoff?
Oregon Ducks vs. the Two-loss SEC
Oregon shares Alabama’s and Texas’ two losses, but not their resumes. And despite being five teams in the mix, that doesn't necessarily mean there are five teams standing in the Ducks’ way.
Texas represents one of the biggest obstacles. The Longhorns have impressive wins over No. 3 Ohio State and No. 11 Tennessee. Oregon’s own path to the College Football Playoff runs through Ohio State (6-1, 4-0 Big Ten) with a Nov. 7 trip to the Horseshoe, where a win over the Buckeyes would go a long way toward matching Texas' resume.
Alabama likely has the easiest pathway to the postseason. Their two defeats came at the hands of the highly ranked Volunteers and No. 5 Georgia (6-1, 4-1 SEC), which ranked the Crimson Tide No. 10, according to Massey.
Florida earned signature wins over Texas and No. 4 Ole Miss (5-1, 3-1 SEC) to put the Gators in the conversation. But consecutive losses to Missouri and South Carolina (3-3, 1-3 SEC) by a combined 47 points are difficult to ignore.
Oregon sits ahead of LSU (No. 18) and Missouri (23) in the Massey ratings, yet both are ranked in the AP despite neither having an overwhelming advantage. LSU dropped contests to Ole Miss and Kentucky (6-1, 4-1 SEC), while Missouri fell to Ole Miss and Mississippi State (4-2, 2-2 SEC).
Alabama became the first three-loss team to earn an at-large bid to the expanded College Football Playoff last season. With league parity being what it is, most of these teams won’t survive the gauntlet.
The Thinning SEC Field
Simple math says two of these five teams earn at least a third loss before the end of the year due to three head-to-head matchups.
Alabama and LSU square off in Baton Rouge on Nov. 7, while Texas and Missouri meet in Columbia, followed by the Longhorns at LSU a week later. Texas also still has to play Ole Miss. LSU travels to Tennessee and Georgia, and Kentucky still stands in Florida’s way.
The margin for error is razor thin. But it’s one the Ducks can take advantage of.
Oregon Must Produce
The answer to the complexity of the College Football Playoff race is to simply win.
Oregon kicks off the second half of its season on the road versus Illinois (3-3, 1-2 Big Ten) Saturday, with every remaining game essentially a must-win.
The biggest tests of the year arrive next with a home showdown against No. 24 Northwestern (5-1, 2-1 Big Ten) before the road tilt at Ohio State.
From there, the Ducks’ remaining opponents Michigan (4-2, 1-2 Big Ten), Michigan State (2-5, 0-4) and Washington (4-3, 1-3 Big Ten) have a combined 2-9 record in conference play.
The SEC schedule will guarantee Oregon a chance to gain ground. It’s up to Lanning’s crew to step up and justify their preseason No. 2 AP ranking.
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