General Alexus Grynkewich, NATO’s Supreme Allied Commander Europe (SACEUR), presented his so-called “Theory of Victory” at the Warsaw Security Forum on Monday afternoon, bringing into public view a concept previously discussed only within the alliance’s senior military leadership. He warned that NATO would destroy “anything and everything” involved in a potential attack against an allied state.
The announcement comes amid heightened tensions between NATO and Moscow, following Russian airspace violations, cyberattacks and acts of sabotage. Western intelligence officials have warned that Russia could seek to test NATO’s resolve with a limited, deliberately ambiguous attack on its eastern flank in the coming months.
“If someone is foolish enough to attack us, we will fight. We will stop the attack and deny them the ability to achieve their objectives, whatever those may be,” the US general and former US Air Force pilot said. “We will, in short, ensure an attack against any ally proves utterly futile.”
The strategy takes its cues from Ukraine, where relatively inexpensive drones have upended conventional assumptions about military power. Under it, NATO would first seek to repel a Russian incursion using ground troops backed by low-cost drones, minimally crewed systems and AI-assisted targeting.
Once the Russian advance was repelled, the alliance would then seek to cripple Russia’s military command structure and bring the conflict to a swift conclusion. The concept also addresses hybrid warfare, including sabotage and cyberattacks, while emphasising the need to avoid unnecessary escalation.
“My theory of victory is simple: we will block the initial attack. If the attack persists, we will blunt it and prevent enemy advance. And if required, we will break the enemy’s forces and the operational warfighting system that is arrayed against us,” Grynkewich explained.
The choice of Warsaw for the announcement is significant. Poland, one of NATO’s biggest defence spenders, borders Ukraine, Belarus and Russia’s heavily militarised Kaliningrad exclave, placing it on the alliance’s frontline in any confrontation with Moscow.
Yet NATO leaders have played down the prospect of a direct Russian attack. “I do not assess that conflict is imminent or inevitable. It isn’t,” Grynkevicz said. “But deterring conflict also requires warfighting readiness. And readiness requires planning against what is possible, not just what is probable.”
NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte too said on September 30 there was “no imminent threat” to allied territory, stressing that the alliance would detect any Russian military buildup.
When asked why go public with the plan now, Grynkevich said it was due to the heightened scale of Russian activity, and added that it is meant to send a message both to allies and their adversaries: “We’ve got this.”
“We are prepared now,” he said. “Could we be better prepared? Absolutely. But I’m very comfortable with what we have today.”
On the elephant in the room, however – the question of whether American troops would join the fight if Russia attacked NATO’s eastern flank – Grynkewich was less forthcoming. “Ultimately, it will be a political decision,” he said.
The presentation was a centrepiece of the two-day security conference in the Polish capital, attended by more than 2,500 politicians, military officials, diplomats and experts from 90 countries. Among the participants are Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store and senior NATO representatives, while Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the gathering remotely.