Former Vice President Kamala Harris has opened up a 15-point lead over California Governor Gavin Newsom in a new poll of potential Democratic presidential candidates for 2028. This is despite having yet to announce whether she will seek the White House again.
The Financial Times/Focaldata survey, released on October 11, found that 30 percent of respondents considering the Democratic presidential nomination supported Harris, compared with 15 percent for Newsom.
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg and New York Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez were tied for third place on 9 percent each, while Georgia Senator Jon Ossoff followed on 8 percent.
Focaldata said its latest survey was conducted between October 2 and October 5 among 2,553 U.S. adults. The generic ballot measures which party voters would prefer to control Congress, rather than support for individual candidates in specific races.
The findings come less than three weeks before the November midterm elections and amid growing speculation about who will emerge to lead the Democratic Party following GOP President Donald Trump's second term.
However, the latest numbers do not represent a significant departure from previous polling; this has repeatedly placed Harris ahead of other prospective candidates.
A Harvard CAPS/Harris survey conducted in late September put Harris at 38 percent and Newsom at 17 percent, while an Echelon Insights poll earlier that month found Harris leading Newsom by 24 percent to 14 percent.
The new results reinforce Harris's position as an early polling front-runner while highlighting the uncertainty surrounding a presidential contest that remains more than two years away. Neither Harris nor Newsom has formally announced a 2028 presidential campaign.
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What Has Kamala Harris Said About Running in 2028?
Harris has kept her political options open since losing the 2024 presidential election to Trump. The former vice president said in July that she had not made a decision about another White House campaign.
Her position has attracted renewed scrutiny as she continues to engage with Democratic donors and support candidates ahead of the midterms.
An October 6 Washington Post report described Harris as facing competing pressures within the party, with some Democrats pointing to her experience and established support base, while others question whether the party should choose a new candidate after its 2024 defeat.
Harris's strong position in early primary polling also comes with a significant caveat: voters expressing a preference more than two years before an election are not necessarily committed to supporting that candidate when voting begins.
Harris remains one of the most closely watched potential contenders, with her decision likely to affect the choices available to other Democrats considering a campaign.
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Gavin Newsom Says He Would Not Challenge Harris
The new poll is particularly significant given Newsom's comments about a possible presidential contest between two of California's most prominent Democrats.
In a September interview with CNN's Jake Tapper, Newsom said he would not enter the 2028 presidential race if Harris decided to run. "I wouldn't do that to her," Newsom said. "I wouldn't waste everybody's time."
The governor suggested their political support overlapped considerably and questioned whether competing against Harris would serve any useful purpose.
Newsom also acknowledged that he had considered running in 2024 but had not felt ready. His latest remarks leave open the possibility of a presidential campaign if Harris chooses not to enter the race.
Newsom has nevertheless continued building a national profile, campaigning for Democratic candidates beyond California and positioning himself as a prominent critic of the Trump administration.
His political activity has drawn attention ahead of the midterms, with several prospective 2028 candidates using the election cycle to expand their networks and test their appeal beyond their home states.
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What Has Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez Said?
Ocasio-Cortez has also declined to rule out seeking the presidency in 2028. Asked during an August appearance on ABC's This Week whether she would consider running for president or the Senate, the New York congresswoman said she was focused on the approaching midterm elections. "I haven't ruled out the possibility," she said.
Ocasio-Cortez has repeatedly emphasized that her political priorities extend beyond securing a particular office. At a University of Chicago event in May, she said: "My ambition is to change this country."
The progressive Democrat has increasingly attracted national attention through her campaigning, including her support for Michigan Senate candidate Abdul El-Sayed.
Her 9 percent showing in the latest survey places her level with Buttigieg but behind both Harris and Newsom. Other prospective Democratic candidates include Pennsylvania Governor Josh Shapiro, Kentucky Governor Andy Beshear and Illinois Governor JB Pritzker, although none has formally secured a place in a future presidential contest.
Newsweek has contacted representatives for Harris, Newsom and Ocasio-Cortez for comment via email and is awaiting responses.
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JD Vance Leads Republican 2028 Poll
The same Financial Times/Focaldata survey also found Vice President JD Vance leading the field of potential Republican presidential candidates.
Vance received 38 percent support, followed by Secretary of State Marco Rubio on 24 percent. Florida Governor Ron DeSantis was further behind on 9 percent, while Donald Trump Jr. received 7 percent.
The results were broadly consistent with previous Republican primary polling. A late-September Harvard CAPS/Harris survey placed Vance at 39 percent, suggesting that his position among prospective Republican candidates has remained relatively stable.
As with the Democratic contest, the numbers provide an early indication of voters' preferences rather than a definitive picture of the eventual field.
Democrats Extend Midterm Polling Lead
The presidential findings were released alongside polling showing Democrats holding an eight-point advantage over Republicans on the generic congressional ballot ahead of November's midterm elections.
With the 2026 elections approaching, the results provide a snapshot of the broader political environment in which prospective presidential candidates are beginning to establish their national profiles.
For Harris, the immediate question remains whether she will translate her continued strength in early polling into another campaign for the White House.
For Newsom, her decision could be particularly consequential, given his public pledge not to challenge her for the nomination
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Tobias Meyjes and James Debens