Democratic Senator Jon Ossoff has extended his lead over his Republican challenger, Representative Mike Collins, according to a new poll of the Georgia Senate race.
The Trafalgar Group’s latest poll found Ossoff is leading Collins by 8 percentage points, 51 percent to 43 percent, with 5.9 percent of respondents saying they were undecided. The poll was conducted between October 7 and 9 among 1,101 likely general election voters and has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
The findings represent a modest improvement for Ossoff from the polling firm’s September poll, which gave him a six-point lead.
That poll, conducted between September 10 and 12 among 1,091 likely voters, found Ossoff had 49.4 percent support, while Collins had 42.8 percent support. That poll found 1.3 percent said they would vote for Libertarian candidate Allen Buckley, while 6.5 percent were still undecided. That poll also had a margin of error of plus or minus 2.9 percentage points.
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Trafalgar was founded by Robert Cahaly, who has served as a political consultant for Republicans, and is generally seen as having a Republican lean. The firm has overestimated Republicans in some races, particularly in 2022, but also correctly predicted President Donald Trump’s victory in 2016 even as many other pollsters forecasted that Democratic candidate Hillary Clinton held an advantage.
Georgia's Senate race remains one of the most closely watched contests of the midterms.
Republicans believe the race is competitive, pointing to Trump’s 2-point victory over former Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. But Democrats believe that Trump’s national approval rating, which has declined amid economic concerns, could give them an advantage in the closely divided swing state.
Although Georgia backed Trump in 2024, former President Joe Biden won it in 2020, and it reelected Democratic Senator Raphael Warnock in 2022. Growth around the blue-shifting Atlanta metro has turned the once-Republican state into a battleground, and Democrats hope those trends will continue to boost Ossoff this year.
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority in the Senate, with Democrats needing to flip four seats as well as defend all of the seats they currently hold, including in Georgia, to win a majority.
The Cook Political Report rates the races as Likely Democrat, while RealClearPolling rates it as Leans Democrat.
Newsweek has contacted the Ossoff and Collins campaigns for comment via email.
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Ossoff Faces Off With Collins in Debate
During a debate on Thursday, Ossoff and Collins clashed over key issues. Affordability was a major topic, with voters consistently citing it among their top concerns in this year’s midterms.
During the debate, Ossoff repeatedly asked Collins to justify his support for Trump’s tariff policies, which he said have “crushed Georgia families.”
Ossoff said he would repeal the tariffs and also pointed to the ongoing war in Iran that is contributing to the soaring price of gasoline.
Collins blamed inflation on Biden administration policies. When asked about his plan to make life more affordable for Georgians, he said he wants to continue to be energy independent and export goods out of the port in Savannah.
What Other Polls Show
A recent Wedgewood Poll survey shows Ossoff with 55 percent of the potential vote compared to 45 percent for Collins. The poll surveyed 600 likely voters on October 2- 3 and has a 4 percent margin of error.
A Big Data Poll similarly shows Ossoff leading Collins, with 51 percent to 40.1 percent among registered voters and 52.2 percent to 41.0 percent among likely voters. The poll surveyed 712 registered voters and 678 likely voters in the Peach State from September 21-23. The margin of error was 4 percent.
A Quantus Insights poll shows Ossoff with 48.2 percent compared to Collins' 44.4 percent, while 6.5 percent are undecided and 0.9 percent said they prefer someone else. The poll surveyed 645 likely voters from September 14-16 and had a margin of error of 4.3 percent.
What Prediction Markets Show
Ossoff is favored in prediction markets, with Kalshi giving him a 95.4 percent chance of victory while Collins has been given 4.6 percent chance as of late Sunday morning.
Rival prediction market Polymarket also favors Ossoff. His odds of winning have increased on the platform over the midterms cycle, with a 96 percent chance as of Sunday. Collins has a 4 percent chance on the platform.
Prediction markets allow traders to buy and sell contracts tied to political outcomes and current events, aggregating real‑money wagers into probability estimates. Prices fluctuate as traders react to polling, fundraising, candidate developments and broader political trends. They measure trader sentiment at a given moment but do not always accurately predict the future.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors for this story: Tobias Meyjes and Anthony Murray.