With the regular season set to tip off on Oct. 20, let's take a look at where each team in the Southeast Division stands. We'll break down what to like and be concerned about, a lineup to watch and a reasonable range for them to finish in the standings.
Let's dig in, shall we?
Hawks • Magic • Hornets • Heat • Wizards
Previous divisions: Central•Southwest • Northwest•Pacific
Atlanta Hawks
WHAT TO LIKE: Perimeter defense
You won’t find many trios more menacing than Dyson Daniels, Lu Dort, and Nickeil Alexander-Walker on the perimeter.
I don’t think they’ll start together barring injury, but the prospect of having at least two of them on the floor at all times is enticing to me. I’m especially excited for the minutes that Daniels and Dort share together; being able to further weaponize Daniels’ off-ball chops should help their defense continue to turn people over at a high level.
OTHER LIKES
It’s time for the full Jalen Johnson Experience! He earned his first All-Star and All-NBA nod last season, filling the box score while spearheading a we-hit-you-from-anywhere offensive attack. Following the Knicks poking at some of his weaknesses in the playoffs last year, I’m excited to see how much he’s grown from it, and what kind of counters he’s added.
It feels like yesterday I was noting the Hawks randomly sprinkling in exit screens for Onyeka Okongwu to take corner 3s. Now, he’s coming off a season where he shot nearly 38% from deep on over five attempts. His transformation into a true stretch option, while still being able to operate as a hub, has been really freakin’ cool to watch.
There is bucket-getting to be had here in Atlanta. CJ McCollum and Alexander-Walker, in particular, are two of the most aesthetically pleasing scorers in the league.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Half-court creation
We’ll start here: Per Cleaning the Glass, the Hawks ranked 15th in half-court offense (97.7; league average: 98.1) overall, but 22nd against top-10 defenses (92.4; league average: 94.7).
In order for the Hawks to take the next step, they’re going to have to improve against set defenses. All of the pace, tempo, and inverted actions in the world won’t save this group if they aren’t able to punish matchups more consistently — especially when teams ramp up their switching.
Johnson, in particular, has to learn and ultimately grow from the lessons that presented themselves during their first-round exit against the Knicks. Josh Hart was able to bother his cadence with ball pressure, and nail help seemed to force Johnson into early pick-ups — and tough jumpers. His ability to navigate tight quarters could raise the floor and ceiling of this Hawks group, but we have to see it.
OTHER CONCERNS
An underrated part of the Hawks’ post-trade run was them almost-randomly turning into a good rebounding team, particularly on the defensive glass. I’m curious to see how real that was.
Jock Landale was quite good in his Atlanta stint before he got hurt last season, but I’m a little uneasy with how important he is to this group. He’s the only 5-sized 5 expected to be in the rotation; they’re going to need him to hold up against certain matchups.
More curiosity than concern, but a back-of-the-brain thought for me is how teams deal with Daniels as a screener and handoff hub this year. The Hawks ramped up his usage on both fronts in light of teams continuing to stash bigs on him; does that continue to be fruitful, or will there be some sort of counter to limit his (and the team’s) effectiveness in those contexts?
LINEUP TO WATCH: McCollum-NAW-Daniels-Johnson-Okongwu
To borrow from my esteemed Dunker Spot co-host Steve Jones Jr., I want to see this starting lineup.
They blitzed the league during their 2026 run — a +19.3 (!) net rating in 391 minutes — though they weren’t able to maintain that in their first-round loss to the Knicks (-28 in 82 minutes). There’s plenty of bucket-getting and inverted actions to be had and ran, and plenty of defensive activity to be excited about.
There’s also size to poke at, and a high volume of switching that could be invited with a lot of their pairings. I’m excited to see just how good this group is with a larger sample.
BEST CASE: No. 3 seed
The defense remains chaotic in the best way, thus fueling an elite transition attack. Half-court growth from Johnson makes him more of a pressure point, making him and his supporting cast more difficult to deal with. A high-octane, egalitarian offense paired with a turnover-forcing defense could absolutely churn out 50 wins.
They did win at a 53-win pace (28-15 from 1/9 onward) following the Trae Young trade, after all.
WORST CASE: Play-In Tournament
The East is tough, which could put them in the 7-10 range by default. Beyond that, I do wonder what the offense looks like if teams continue to land on switching to flatten them out. Their ability to force turnovers helped offset some of the size (and early season rebounding) issues they had; any slippage in that area could also lower their floor.
Orlando Magic
WHAT TO LIKE: The starting five
I find it hard to completely quit the Orlando Magic, largely because their starting five is so fascinating to me.
Jalen Suggs is one of the best guard defenders in the league, and he continues to get more audacious (mostly complimentary) as an offensive player. Desmond Bane is an electric shooter that doubles as one of the more underrated (and physical) drivers in the league.
Franz Wagner and Paolo Banchero are two massive, All-Star caliber wings that can inflict pain as drivers and (growing) playmakers. Wendell Carter Jr., for my money, may just be the most underrated center in the league right now. There are kinks that can be ironed out offensively, but this is generally a group I’m high on.
OTHER LIKES
Last season was the first time Banchero took a larger share of shots at the rim than he did from midrange. He posted a career-high in true shooting percentage (56.6) and free throw rate (51.2) last season. Do we think that trend continues? For his and the Magic’s sake, I sure hope so!
I … kinda like the Magic having Jase Richardson, Anthony Black, Tristan da Silva, and Goga Bitadze as a reserve group. It may end up biting me later in the year, but there’s a blend of creation and defense that I (want to) believe in.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Can they open up the offense?
It feels like we’re reaching an inflection point with the Banchero-Wagner pairing.
Both are skilled forwards on their own, but they’re close enough in size that teams are comfortable switching actions they’re involved in together. And considering neither of them are fearsome shooters, their shared minutes have often felt underwhelming.
Insert the obvious preseason caveat here, but I’ve liked a lot of what I’ve seen from the Magic offense, structurally speaking. The tempo is up, the spacing principles — both the initial alignment and the relocations that happen during actions — are strong. The side-to-side flow feels better, and there seems to be a concerted effort to make sure Wagner and Banchero are catching the ball 1) on the move and 2) with plenty of space to work with.
This has to sustain, or we’re going to be answering some big-picture questions instead of simply asking them.
OTHER CONCERNS
It feels like Magic heritage at this point, but they still feel pretty light on shooting. I’ve gotten a kick out of Da Silva seemingly trying to solve the 3-point issue by himself this preseason (21 attempts in two games).
While I acknowledge Bitadze in particular is probably better than given credit for, I do have some mild concerns about the interior defense with WCJ off the floor.
Speaking of the defense: I wonder if the Magic are able to find a better balance between being physical and sending teams to the line this year. They’ve been near the bottom of the league in opponent free-throw rate for three years in a row.
LINEUP TO WATCH: Suggs-Bane-Wagner-Banchero-Carter Jr.
The good news: Orlando’s projected starting lineup blitzed teams (+12.4 net rating) when they played together last season.
The bad news: Across the regular season and postseason, they only logged 272 minutes together.
That isn’t close to enough.
It’s a basic point to make, but I just want to see this group on the court more often because I think there’s something really good brewing here.
BEST CASE: Top-3 seed
We just watched the Detroit Pistons ride an MVP-caliber campaign (Cade Cunningham) and an elite defense to 60 wins.
I wouldn’t put Wagner or Banchero in the Cunningham tier, but they both have All-NBA potential if they’re healthy enough. There’s enough collective size and point-of-attack goodness to be a stingy defense. If the Magic find the right blend on both ends, there’s absolutely a roadmap to them churning out regular-season wins.
WORST CASE: Just outside the play-in
The Magic finally broke their bottom-10-offense curse last season — at least they did per Cleaning the Glass — but it still underwhelmed. The offense not taking a step, the defense being sub-elite, and any injury woes with their core could have them on the outside looking in.
Charlotte Hornets
WHAT TO LIKE: Another year of Kon Knueppel
A worthy option for last year’s Rookie of the Year award, Kon Knueppel should have more on his plate this season. On top of establishing himself as one of the league’s best shooters, he (and head coach Charles Lee) has already shown how to weaponize that shooting with his usage as a screener.
The on-ball reps were encouraging last year; he was able to boogie into (short) midrange looks in key moments, and in general I feel he’s got more juice as a driver than given credit for. I’m excited to see how he handles more defensive attention.
OTHER LIKES
Brandon Miller was a big part of Charlotte’s 2026 run. He shot the leather off the ball, but there was also a force that he played with against switches and small mismatches that I hope carries over into this year. There’s low-hanging fruit for him to grab as an inside-the-arc option as he gets stronger and tightens the handle. He could really cement himself as one of the league’s best wing scorers this year.
Naz Reid playing in a more uptempo offense, with a ton of space and guard screens at his disposal, is a context that excites me. I said it on The Dunker Spot when the trade happened: do not be surprised if Reid averages north of 20 points per game this season.
Between Moussa Diabaté and Ryan Kalkbrenner, I’m excited for the Hornets to crush teams on the offensive glass again.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: How real is the defense?
The Hornets flirting with a top-10 defense last year — they were fifth in 2026, a 49-game sample! — was one of the larger upsets of the year. There were some schematic things to point to — they flooded the paint on drives, and tried to maintain a healthy nail presence — but they largely did the boring stuff. They didn’t foul (5th in opponent free-throw rate) and didn’t give up extra opportunities (3rd in defensive rebound rate).
Does swapping out LaMelo Ball and Phoenix Suns Forward #22 with Reid, Grayson Allen, and Royce O’Neale make them a steadier unit? Or does the loss of Ball ding the offense enough to where they aren’t able to set their defense, making them worse by default?
OTHER CONCERNS
The guard creation without Ball will naturally be under a microscope. For all the turnover or rim pressure warts, Ball consistently juiced the transition attack and created high-value shots because of his blend of size, pace, shot-making, and passing audacity. There’s a pathway to replacing Ball’s production in the aggregate, but it’s a tiiight needle to thread with real downside if they don’t nail it.
Once again, I’ll be monitoring the collective rim pressure of this group offensively. Reid, Coby White, Dennis Schröder will need to bring some juice. I’d love to see steps taken from Miller and Knueppel specifically.
LINEUP TO WATCH: Schröder-Allen-Knueppel-O’Neale-Kalkbrenner
I was tempted to roll with the starting group, but I’m fascinated by how effective the second unit is going to be. Schröder is still a walking paint touch; Allen and O’Neale are coming off Phoenix campaigns where they had more room to explore as drivers and high-volume shooters. Kalkbrenner is a willing screener and a vacuum on the offensive glass.
Giving Knueppel or Miller this unit — or maybe tapping into some all-bench minutes with a different 5th (Sion James for defense? Grant Williams for grit and switchability? Do we believe in a Liam McNeeley leap? Is it just going to be Pat Connaughton?) could be fun.
BEST CASE: No. 6 seed
Growth (and good health) from Miller and Knueppel, paired with continuing to win the math battle — high 3-point volume and efficiency, plus crushing the offensive glass in particular — could set the team up to win more games than expected. If the collective size and toughness added this offseason allows the Hornets to stay switchable and aid in their help principles, they could flirt around a top-10 finish in offensive and defensive rating again.
(A reminder that, per Cleaning the Glass, they were fifth in offense and 11th in defense last season.)
WORST CASE: Just outside the play-in
This could be as simple as the defense slipping, the Hornets missing LaMelo’s ability to draw two or create advantages out of thin air with his passing, and the rest of the conference being too tough for them to carve out a top-10 spot.
Miami Heat
WHAT TO LIKE: Giannis Antetokounmpo
The fun of the Jimmy Butler era, particularly during the playoffs, is that he’d often elevate into a top-five player — a guy that, on any given night, could match or outperform the superstar(s) on the other side of him.
In Giannis Antetokounmpo, the Heat have a guy who walks in with top-five equity. It’s the first time they’ve had someone with that type of floor since LeBron James and Dwyane Wade were trading lobs with each other.
The early preseason returns have been loud; Giannis’ pressure can break defenses, and his presence can open up fruitful looks for his teammates.
OTHER LIKES
Bam Adebayo is one of the best defenders in the world. And while he’ll be needed to do a little bit of everything offensively — drive, pass, screen on and off the ball, post smaller matchups — he shouldn’t have the same burden of responsibility with Giannis in town. Paired with the defensive personnel the Heat can toss out around him, are we discounting the possibility of Adebayo putting together his best season on that end?
If we’re talking defense, the Heat being able to have two of Davion Mitchell, backup Dru Smith (get well soon), Pelle Larsson, and Andrew Wiggins on the floor at all times is kinda absurd.
I know Erik Spoelstra is excited to have Klay Thompson and Tim Hardaway Jr. at his disposal to open up the floor and the playbook.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Guard creation
Giannis is, and has long been, a force of nature offensively. He’s even better when he has a guard or wing that can unlock him as a screening option — and when he actually wants to set a screen. The Heat don’t have a great option on that front, at least not on the ball.
There is no high-volume, off-the-bounce shooting threat to consistently draw bigs at the level; no S-tier passer to unlock Giannis or Adebayo as lob options. Maybe it doesn’t matter because the frontcourt duo is too good, and the defense overall is too stingy. But until that’s proven, it’s worth monitoring the volume of unders and switches the guards will likely see — and how well they handle them.
OTHER CONCERNS
More curiosity than concern, but I do wonder what the non-Adebayo minutes are going to look like defensively. How often does Spoelstra want to tap the Giannis-at-5 button? How much zone will this team play (hi, Bobby Portis minutes), and how often will they do so from a position of strength versus a point of necessity?
I’ve been intrigued by the Nikola Jović preseason; can he carry that over into regular season play and establish himself as a no-doubt rotation piece? It’d help Miami’s lineup versatility if he does.
Back to Adebayo: what exactly does this half-court offense look like against high-level defenses if he doesn’t take a leap as a 3-point shooter? Does that unlock some cross-matching for teams to tap into?
LINEUP TO WATCH: Larsson-Thompson-Wiggins-Antetokounmpo-Adebayo
Wiggins and Larsson defending your top options; Antetokounmpo and Adebayo chewing up space and/or erasing mistakes on the backline. That alone is enough to excite me, and that’s excluding what Thompson may have left as a defender — or at least a communicator that’s well-versed in navigating scram-switch waters.
BEST CASE: No. 1
This would be the Giannis MVP pathway, leading a Heat offense that ranked just outside of the top-10 last season and lifting it to elite levels. An Adebayo-led defense with this personnel should be in the top-five. Constant paint pressure, a high quality (and volume) of 3s, plus an elite defense is a formula that could produce 50+ wins.
WORST CASE: Play-In Tournament
I think it’d take some otherworldly bad injury luck for the Heat to miss the play-in altogether, but there’s certainly a world where Giannis misses time and the offense underwhelms. It’d serve as a reminder that the Heat’s three best perimeter creators (Tyler Herro, Norm Powell, Jaime Jaquez Jr.) from last season are no longer here.
And while Miami’s late-season defensive slide was due to a bit of shot variance from 3, it is worth noting that the floor of this group lowers if they’re “only” a solid defense instead of an elite one.
Washington Wizards
WHAT TO LIKE: Trae Young, table-setting
We saw glimpses of this last season after the trade, but Young should raise the floor and bring a level of calm to a young Wizards group that needs it. There’s only so much you can glean from preseason, but I hope it served as a reminder that Young is one of the best passers we have in the league. His ability to run and generate quality looks out of high ball-screens, early or late in possessions, should make life easier for everyone around him.
OTHER LIKES
AJ Dybantsa is already one of my favorite drivers in the league. Explosive, yet crafty. Undeniable, but with some low-hanging fruit to grab. He’s going to live at the line. Heck, the trio of him, Young, and Anthony Davis should live at the line.
On Davis, he should be a fun screening partner for Young. He should also give the Wizards some added competency and versatility on the defensive end. I’m excited to watch him and Alex Sarr
battle over who’s the centerdefend together.Kyshawn George had the ball in his hands a lot more last season, and didn’t look out of place making reads. In fact, I found myself impressed with his floor game while still remaining a shooting threat. I’m excited to watch him operate as a second-side option off of Young’s gravity.
Just a general shoutout to Tre Johnson’s jumper: it’s incredibly smooth, efficient, and his base is awesome on 2K if you’ve never used it. Also, between Johnson, Bub Carrington and Will Riley, the Wizards have some young guys that do not mind getting up shots.
BIGGEST QUESTION MARK: Defensive consistency
Injury, lineup, and lottery-related context notwithstanding, this was pretty easily the worst defense in the league last year. Establishing better habits and a competent base (I think there’s potential to be a feisty at-the-level team if they nail the rotations behind it) will take some time, and that’s before acknowledging that they’ll have to scheme around some, ahem, defensively challenged guards in the process.
(I will say, as my Dunker Spot co-host Steve has alluded to, it’s worth acknowledging the early returns of effort from the young guards during preseason. That’s a big part of the battle right there.)
OTHER CONCERNS
I’m worried that, for all my excitement about the Wizards’ pick-and-roll attacks, that (good) teams ultimately land on placing length on Young and turning those ball screens into switches. This could be a post-heavy group almost by default, and I wouldn’t love that for the health of their offense.
Loosely related to the defense point, I hope Bilal Coulibaly is able to find something reliable as an offensive player so that he warrants enough playing time for the defense to pop. This is a really big year for him.
LINEUP TO WATCH: George-Dybantsa-Middleton-Davis-Sarr
While I’m generally excited to see what the full-time Young experience will be like, I’m fascinated by the bigger lineup combinations they can tap into. Of the possible options, Khris Middleton or Coulibaly (defense, baby!) would bring me the most joy.
BEST CASE: No. 6 seed
Getting 65+ games out of Young and Davis is probably asking for too much. But in the world that it happens, the Wizards could have high-level stabilizing forces on both ends of the floor to complement a fun blend of young talent. A Rookie of the Year-level campaign from Dybantsa, internal growth from George and others, and a consistent wave of scoring threats could make the Wizards one of the most annoying teams in the league to deal with.
WORST CASE: Bottom of the East
While there are some interesting defenders on the roster, I wouldn’t say it’s a great defensive roster. Injuries to the older star players plus a rudderless enterprise on that end could have them slide down the standings pretty quickly.