With only 10 Sundays left until Christmas, cities across the U.S. are already getting into the holiday spirit: stringing lights on trees, opening ice rinks, and rummaging through last year’s decorations as they prepare to deck the streets.
Meanwhile, those in typically snowy regions are mentally bracing for shovels, salt trucks, and filling their pantries with essentials (just in case of extreme weather). Some are also looking forward to snow-dusted windowsills, idyllic winter scenes, and the perfect excuse to enjoy hot cocoa with tiny marshmallows once again.
But how likely is it that it will actually snow in your state this December? Before you start dreaming of a white Christmas and digging your winter coats out of the closet, let’s see if Jack Frost will be nipping at your nose this holiday season.
A DUSTING OF DATA
According to White Christmas USA's annual local snow outlook, the nationwide historical chance of snow in major cities is just 11 percent. Each state was assigned a snow probability percentage, along with the major city in that state most likely to see Christmas snow.
To discover the likelihood of a snowy holiday, White Christmas USA analyzed NOAA snow-depth observations and USGS terrain and geographic data, building a model to “estimate the chance of at least one inch of snow on the ground at 07:00 local time on Christmas morning” in each state and major city.
The 10 cities most likely to see snow this Christmas are Anchorage, Alaska; Bozeman, Montana; Duluth, Minnesota; Grand Forks, North Dakota; St. Cloud, Minnesota; Coon Rapids, Minnesota; Fargo, North Dakota; Blaine, Minnesota; Logan, Utah; and Rochester, New York.
The states most likely to have a snowy Christmas are Alaska, North Dakota, and Minnesota, while Alabama, California, Florida, Georgia, Hawaii, Louisiana, Mississippi, North Carolina, West Virginia, and Vermont are the least likely, based on major city averages. These low percentages don’t always mean the entire state won’t see snow. They reveal that the specific major cities included in the data rarely do. Some cities within states listed at 0 percent individually have a high chance of snow on Christmas.
HOW LIKELY IS YOUR STATE TO HAVE A WHITE CHRISTMAS?
Here’s how likely our state is to have a white Christmas, based on major city snow averages. To see the likelihood for each city or town, click the state and hover over the location you’re curious about on White Christmas USA.
Let’s see if dreaming of a white Christmas in 2026 will make it come true!