Bitcoin falls toward $81,500 as U.S. annual inflation rises to 3.7%

The Consumer Price Index rose 0.6% in September on a seasonally adjusted basis after a 0.4% increase in August, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The annual rate reached 3.7%, up from 3.4% in the 12 months ended in August. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% on the month and 2.6% over the year, up from 2.4%. Gasoline prices rose 9.1% in September and accounted for more than half of the monthly increase.

Economist forecasts called for annual inflation of 3.6%, annual core inflation of 2.5% and monthly core inflation of 0.2%, according to CoinDesk.

Chipmaker shares weighed on the Nasdaq $NDAQ 100, which slid as much as 2%, while the dollar climbed to its strongest point since May 2025 and traders ramped up expectations for additional Federal Reserve rate hikes, according to Bloomberg. Ether, XRP and Solana each fell close to 3%.

The decline came against a shift in analyst sentiment. CryptoQuant's 30-day analyst consensus index for bitcoin rose to plus 49.2 from minus 18.3 in July, and the share of bullish analysts climbed to 84% from 37%, according to Bloomberg. Bitcoin remains more than 30% below its record high, Bloomberg said in the same report.

"Global financial market conditions are pretty tough right now," said Matt Hougan, chief investment officer at Bitwise Asset Management, according to Bloomberg. Hougan said that elevated inflation and energy costs squeeze the global money supply, while growing anxiety around AI hyperscalers is adding to pressure on risk assets.

Paul Howard, senior director at Wincent, said stronger inflation likely dampens hopes for a catalyst in crypto prices, according to The Block $SQ. "The consensus for many is that a substantial movement in cryptocurrency pricing would require some money printing macro headlines to really move the needle," Howard said.

The Federal Reserve raised interest rates in September, its first increase in more than three years, lifting the target range for the benchmark funds rate to 3.75%–4%. The central bank's next meeting is Oct. 27–28.

Before the data, Fed speakers had signaled another 25 basis point increase before year-end, and most market participants expected a pause this month and a hike in December, according to CoinDesk. Wednesday's hotter-than-expected readings may now revive the prospect of a rate increase as soon as October, according to CoinDesk.