Two weeks before the midterm elections, the race ratings, forecasting models and most public polls are pointing the same way: Republicans are at greater risk of losing the Senate than at any point this cycle.
Republicans hold a 53-47 majority, so Democrats need a net gain of four seats to take control outright. A 50-50 split would leave Vice President JD Vance breaking ties in the GOP's favor.
Democrats' likeliest pickup is North Carolina, where former Governor Roy Cooper has consistently led Republican Michael Whatley in polls, prompting Republicans to pull their spending out of the state. That leaves the party hunting for three more flips across a cluster of states President Donald Trump carried in 2024, including Ohio, Texas, Iowa, Alaska and Kansas, along with Maine, while defending an open seat in Michigan.
Nearly every one of those races sits within the margin of error. In several of them, polls badly underestimated Republicans in recent cycles, a pattern that keeps analysts from calling the chamber for Democrats.
CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten said the Senate is too close to call, with many races within the margin of error. Many election experts agree and say that Democrats will have to wait until Election Day to see whether the polling holds or Republicans outperform and keep control.
Former North Dakota Senator Heidi Heitkamp, a Democrat, sees GOP turnout as the bigger unknown nationally. "The question is whether the Republicans can motivate their base to turn out," she told Newsweek. "That's a bigger question than whether Democrats will become overconfident and not go to the polls."
What Polls, Forecasts Say
The race handicappers have moved steadily toward Democrats.
On October 6, Cook Political Report shifted Kansas from Lean Republican to Toss Up, New Hampshire from Toss Up to Lean Democrat, and North Carolina from Lean Democrat to Likely Democrat, expanding the range of possible Democratic pickups to as many as six seats. Cook's toss-ups are Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas.
Sabato's Crystal Ball lists Texas, Kansas, Iowa, Ohio and Maine as toss-ups. It moved Alaska to Leans Democratic the same day, and its editors noted that for the first time all cycle, Republicans now need to win more of its toss-ups to hold the Senate than Democrats need to win to flip it.
Nate Silver's FLIPR model is the most bullish of the bunch. Silver put Democrats' chances at 75 percent on Monday and moved the chamber from "Lean D" to "Likely D," after the model had already hit a new high for Democrats earlier in October.
As of October 18, Decision Desk HQ gave Democrats a 56 percent chance and a projected 51 seats. Its four toss-ups are Iowa, Ohio, Maine and Texas, and only in Iowa does it give Republicans the edge, at 52 percent.
Prediction markets are also bullish on a strong Democratic performance. Kalshi had Democrats at 63 percent on Monday, up from 44 percent in March. Polymarket had them at 62.
Polling experts, however, warn that every one of those numbers leans on polls that underestimated Republicans in several of these states two years ago. Enten has pointed to a similar miss in 2018, the last midterm of Trump's first term.
Ohio
Former Senator Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, has led most recent surveys against Senator Jon Husted, the Republican appointed to Vice President JD Vance's old seat. A CNN poll of likely voters found Brown ahead 49 percent to 43 percent, and a Bowling Green State University/YouGov survey of 1,000 likely voters, taken September 29 to October 9, had Brown at 48 percent to Husted's 42 percent.
Trump has touted a different survey, of 925 likely voters conducted October 5 to 6, that had Husted ahead 44 percent to 43 percent.
The Senate Leadership Fund, the super PAC aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, has announced plans to put $14 million into the race.
Ohio polls ran well short of the result in 2024. Trump led 270toWin's final average by 7.7 points and won by just over 11, and Enten has put the Republican overperformance in the state at 6 points.
"A normal miss in their direction flips several of those races," Craig Agranoff, political professor at Florida Atlantic University, told Newsweek, saying that Republican candidates have often beaten the averages by 3 or 4 points in recent cycles.
Texas
Early voting began Monday with Democratic state Representative James Talarico holding a narrow persistent edge over Attorney General Ken Paxton. A University of Houston Hobby School survey shows Talarico at 48 percent among likely voters to Paxton's 46 percent, with 3 percent for Libertarian Ted Brown. A new CBS News poll has Talarico ahead 51 percent to 49 percent.
An InsiderAdvantage poll of 1,200 likely voters released last week showed it the other way around, Paxton 49 percent and Talarico 48.
A Republican usually opens a statewide race in Texas with "a cushion of somewhere in the high single digits," according to Mark Jones, Texas politics expert who co-directed the Houston poll. "And that cushion is now down to next to nothing," he told Newsweek.
Talarico has also been outraising Paxton in some of the state's Republican strongholds. Brendan Steinhauser, Republican strategist in Texas, sees an enthusiasm problem for his party in the numbers.
"This doesn't necessarily mean that a bunch of Republicans have become Democrats in Texas," Steinhauser told Newsweek. "It's more that Republican voters might not be as enthusiastic to vote this year as they have been in the past." He still expects Republicans to hold the seat. "I just think it might be closer than we all expected," he said.
On the Democratic side, Matt Angle, director of the Lone Star Project, told Newsweek that "Texas is still a state that favors Republicans." Trump held an average polling lead of 7.4 points there in 2024 and won by nearly 14.
Paxton is midway through an 18-day bus tour. Talarico launched his closing swing Sunday night in Plano.
Iowa
Iowa may be the closest race in the country. It is the only Senate contest Kalshi traders rate a toss-up.
A Marist poll conducted October 8 to 11 found Democratic state Representative Josh Turek edging Republican Representative Ashley Hinson 48 percent to 45 percent among likely voters, and a YouGov survey of 2,245 likely voters from October 6 to 12 had Turek ahead 47 percent to 46 percent. An Emerson College poll taken October 5 and 6 favored Hinson, 47 percent to 45 percent.
Trump is set to visit Iowa on October 22 and November 1 to boost Hinson. Early voting in the state started October 14.
Alex Patton, Republican strategist, told Newsweek that he thinks "the cake is baked" nationally. "The GOP isn't going to solve inflation, the war, gas prices in the next few weeks," he said. "The President's approval numbers aren't going to shoot up 20 points."
Two years ago, the final Iowa average showed Trump up 4.7 points. He carried the state by 13.
Maine
Republican Senator Susan Collins trails narrowly in the latest surveys. A Suffolk University poll of 500 likely voters, conducted October 8 to 11, had Democrat Troy Jackson at 49 percent to Collins' 47 percent. Marist had Jackson up 51 percent to 47 percent among registered voters, though 57 percent of the Maine electorate thinks Collins will win.
Mainers have some reason to doubt the polls: In 2020, Democrat Sara Gideon was up 3.8 points in 270toWin's polling average, and Collins won with nearly 51 percent of the vote to Gideon's less than 43 percent.
Alaska
Former Representative Mary Peltola, a Democrat, has built the most consistent lead of any Democratic challenger. An InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters on October 9 and 10 showed her at 48.2 percent in the first round to 42.6 percent for Republican Senator Dan Sullivan, and 50.1 percent to 48 percent in the final ranked-choice round. A New York Times/Siena poll gave Peltola her largest lead, 50 percent to 43 percent.
Ivan Moore, who runs Alaska Survey Research, told Newsweek last month that the race has barely budged. "Every survey I've done has showed Peltola winning the ranked-choice round," he said. "The data has stayed very consistent despite untold millions of dollars being spent."
"He is Trump's boy, and unless he separates himself, he's going to lose," Moore said of Sullivan.
Sullivan's campaign argues the state is notoriously hard to poll, and the record gives it some cover. In 2020, an Alaska Survey Research poll showed Sullivan up 4 points, and he won by nearly 13.
Michigan
The open Michigan seat is Republicans' best chance to offset losses elsewhere. An InsiderAdvantage survey of 1,200 likely voters conducted October 9 to 10 put Democrat Abdul El-Sayed at 48 percent and former Representative Mike Rogers at 46 percent, with 5 percent undecided. A YouGov poll had El-Sayed ahead 49 percent to 48 percent.
Rogers' camp points to 2024, when, according to a campaign aide, he outperformed late-October polling by more than 5 points in a race decided by 0.3 percent. Decision Desk HQ rates the race Lean D, giving El-Sayed a 68 percent chance.
By Enten's count, Republicans beat their Michigan polls by 5 points that year.
Kansas
Kansas has emerged as the cycle's surprise battleground. An InsiderAdvantage poll of 1,200 likely voters, conducted October 9 to 10, had Democrat Adam Hamilton at 47.5 percent to Republican Senator Roger Marshall's 46.7 percent, and a YouGov poll found Hamilton ahead 48 percent to 45 percent. The Senate Leadership Fund has already poured millions into the race, a move that helped push the Crystal Ball to call it a toss-up.
"We're less than a month from election day and Republicans are worried about losing a Senate race in Kansas," Jim Kessler of centrist think tank Third Way told Newsweek. "It's batten down the hatches time for the GOP."
Decision Desk HQ still rates Kansas as Lean R and gives Marshall a 65 percent chance. No Democrat has won a Senate race in the state since 1932.
Nebraska
Independent Dan Osborn is again running close in a deep-red state, enough to draw Trump to campaign for Republican Senator Pete Ricketts. A YouGov poll found Osborn edging Ricketts 48 percent to 47 percent, while a Republican-aligned NPA Polling survey had Ricketts ahead 46 percent to 43 percent.
In 2024, Osborn led seven of the 12 Nebraska Senate polls released from late September through Election Day, then lost to Senator Deb Fischer.
Newsweek’s reporters and editors used Martyn, our AI assistant, to produce this story. Learn more about Martyn here. Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Edward T. Cummins