Annie Pforzheimer, a former senior US diplomat, tells Amu TV that Taliban authorities are not currently ready for meaningful political negotiations, but greater unity among Afghans around common principles, coupled with international pressure, could eventually help bring them to the negotiating table.
In an exclusive interview with Amu TV, Pforzheimer, who served as acting US deputy assistant secretary of state for Afghanistan from 2018 to 2019, said Afghans need to identify principles around which a broad majority can unite before any future political negotiations.
“I don’t think they’re exactly ready,” Pforzheimer said of the Taliban’s willingness to negotiate.
But she said circumstances could change if Afghans developed a more unified position and international pressure for a political process increased.
“This is the moment to come together on the core principles that unite the people of Afghanistan,” she said.
Pforzheimer said divisions among Afghan political groups remain an obstacle to presenting a coherent alternative political vision and could allow Taliban authorities to exploit differences among their opponents in any future political process.
Mursal Kabir, a data analyst who joined Pforzheimer in the interview, said there is already significant common ground among Afghan political groups despite their disagreements over the structure of a future government.
She pointed to political declarations and road maps developed by different Afghan groups that contain overlapping positions on issues including women’s rights, human rights and political participation.
Kabir and Pforzheimer argue that those areas of agreement should be expanded through a broader consultation with Afghans inside and outside the country.
Proposal for broader Afghan consultation
Pforzheimer and Kabir, who recently co-authored a proposal calling for a broad consultation process to give Afghans a greater voice in determining the country’s political future, have proposed a public consultation aimed at determining what Afghans themselves want from the country’s future political system, rather than beginning another political process dominated by political elites or foreign governments.
Kabir said ordinary Afghans have repeatedly been excluded from decisions that fundamentally changed the country.
“For the past five decades, every major change that the country has witnessed has either come from a coup, an invasion, or … some sort of elites having some sort of deal,” she said.
She said the proposed consultation would seek to establish common principles among a much broader section of Afghan society before any future negotiations take place.
Kabir also cited survey data from previous years showing that many Afghans did not feel represented in political and peace processes. She said those who did feel represented were more likely to support a negotiated reconciliation, suggesting that broader participation could strengthen the legitimacy and durability of any future settlement.
Pforzheimer said that lesson was particularly relevant to the negotiations that led to the 2020 U.S.-Taliban agreement in Doha.
“There was a deadline. It was rushed. It had to do with an international agenda and not the agenda of the people, and it had the wrong people in the room,” she said.
She said any future settlement would need to include a much broader section of Afghan society if it was to endure.
“To be durable, it is going to have to bring the vast majority of the people of Afghanistan into the same conversation and to agree on the same set of principles going forward about how they are governed,” Pforzheimer said.
Kabir: Process must include Afghans inside country
Kabir said a broad consultation would face significant challenges under current conditions, particularly in ensuring the safety of women and others inside Afghanistan who could face consequences for expressing political views.
She stressed that the proposal was not to immediately launch a nationwide consultation but to first develop a mechanism that could allow Afghans to participate safely.
“We are not arguing for launching it,” Kabir said. “We’re saying that people will come together — Afghans, international experts — they have to design that process in a way that’s safe for everybody.”
She said radio, satellite television, social media and other communication platforms could potentially be used to reach Afghans, but safeguards would have to be developed before such a process began.
Pforzheimer and Kabir said the United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan could help facilitate the design of the consultation.
Pforzheimer said the United Nations, despite criticism of its work, remained one of the few institutions capable of providing a relatively neutral platform for such an initiative.
“The U.N., for all of the criticisms that people have of it, at least is the most neutral body that we have,” she said.
Kabir stressed that any process facilitated by the United Nations would still need to be Afghan-led, with international experts providing technical assistance rather than determining the country’s political future.
Taliban not ready, but conditions could change
Pforzheimer said she sees little indication that Taliban authorities are currently prepared to enter a meaningful political process.
But she and Kabir pointed to several factors that could influence future calculations, including greater unity among other Afghan political actors, international pressure, differences within the Taliban and the Taliban’s interest in greater international acceptance.
Even without immediate negotiations with Taliban authorities, Kabir said establishing what Afghans want from a future political system would have value.
Such a process, she said, could identify areas of broad agreement on governance, political representation, human rights and women’s rights and provide a foundation for any future political talks.
Pforzheimer said it could also help address a recurring question among international governments about who represents Afghan political views beyond the country’s de facto authorities.
“There’s a lot of questions that say, ‘Well, who else would we talk to if not the de facto authorities?’” she said.
She cautioned, however, that a consultation should not be portrayed as a mechanism that could automatically produce a new government or immediate political change.
“A consultation is not some kind of check that’s written by … powerful people that says tomorrow you’re going to have this government,” Pforzheimer said.
Instead, she said, the objective should be to establish a sufficiently broad Afghan consensus that could eventually underpin a durable political settlement.
“The vast majority of Afghans would like to live in a society where their voice is respected, where they have some choice in their own government and their lives and their freedoms,” Pforzheimer said.
The post Ex-US diplomat: Afghan unity could help bring Taliban to negotiating table appeared first on Amu TV.