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Late October is spooky season, but it means something else, too. The NBA is back.
After a wild offseason with plenty of player movement and a loaded June draft class, regular-season action tips off Oct. 20.
Before tackling the opening schedule, we can lock in a few early win totals for four squads split evenly between the conferences.
Oddsmakers set the defending-champion Knicks at 52.5 wins, behind Western powerhouses, Oklahoma City (61.5) and San Antonio (60.5).
Across a deep East, several totals immediately jump out, LeBron James leading a revamped Sixers team at 50.5, Giannis Antetokounmpo taking the reins in Miami at 46.5, and a championship reunion between Kawhi Leonard and Toronto at 46.5, providing our first initial best bet.
2026-27 NBA Over/Under win total bets
Raptors Over 46.5 wins (-115, bet365)
When a free agent joins a team, the fit is often in question, but Darko Rajaković’s starting five desperately needed a 3-and-D wing, and Leonard fits the mold perfectly. Without him last season, Toronto won 46 games and finished 5th in the NBA in defensive rating (113.0) before taking Cleveland seven games in the playoffs.
I like their chances to tap on more wins with him back North of the Border, strengthening a young core headlined by All-Star Scottie Barnes and a pair of former Knicks, R.J. Barrett and Immanuel Quickley.
Pistons Under 49.5 wins (-150, BetMGM)
Detroit enters this season as a regression candidate, despite a 32-9 home record that was the NBA’s third-best last season, but hosting the Celtics on opening night won’t be easy. Things get even tougher as they face a three-game road slate in Miami, Philadelphia, and New York immediately after. Cade Cunningham remains the face of the franchise, but Jalen Duren’s basketball shape amid his contract dispute will also be something to watch, making this high win total harder to cover.
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Timberwolves Over 47.5 wins (-110, bet365)
Anthony Edwards made his demands, and the Timberwolves finally gave in by bringing in younger, playmaking point guard LaMelo Ball. Minnesota’s ceiling is higher than ever, and Ball’s arrival gives Edwards room to move beyond an isolation-heavy style.
The former Hornet’s 7.1 assists per game should bolster an offense that stalled against the Spurs in last season’s playoffs. With Jaden McDaniels and Rudy Gobert keeping their defense intact, I expect the Wolves to flirt with 50 wins.
Suns Under 40.5 wins (-130, BetMGM)
Devin Booker and the Suns were a great surprise last season, qualifying for the Play-In, earning the 8th seed, and then getting swept by the Thunder.
The NBA schedule makers didn’t favor Jordan Ott’s team, as four of their first ten games will be against Golden State and Portland, a strong early litmus test. But beyond those two teams, with the Mavericks getting a healthy Kyrie Irving back and the Jazz’s young core poised to take the next step, I don’t think Phoenix holds its own talent-wise, especially against other play-in-level teams in the West.
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Mike Turay is a sports journalist and editor who closely follows the NBA, NFL, college sports and UFC. He has demonstrated expertise in both NBA and NFL player prop bets for nearly three years. Mike is also highly knowledgeable about the sportsbook offer landscape, frequently trying and reviewing the latest apps and sites.