BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Monday, 19 October, 5:20 p.m. ET · Source: Lula campaign, CNN Brasil
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Monday 19 October, Lula’s campaign said he will sign an authorisation letting courts open his own bank and phone records, and those of his family.
- The condition His spokesman said the step depends on Flávio Bolsonaro granting the same access for himself and his family.
- Where it goes The papers are to go to the presidents of the electoral court (TSE), Kássio Nunes Marques, and the Supreme Federal Court (STF), Edson Fachin.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.8% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 23.5% (19 October, 5:04 p.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 77% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 24% and 21%), as of 19 October, 5:20 pm ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open Flávio Bolsonaro had not publicly accepted the challenge at the time of writing, and answered it on stage only with a jab at Lula.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva will authorise courts to open his bank and phone records, his campaign said on Monday 19 October at about 4:37 p.m. ET. It is the latest move in the Brazil election 2026, 6 days before the vote.
The offer is a challenge to his rival, Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, to do the same before the runoff on Sunday 25 October. For investors and voters abroad, it keeps corruption at the centre of a race that polls call close.
What Lula Promised
Campaign spokesman Camilo Santana said the president will officially authorise the opening of his bank and phone records, and those of his relatives, according to CNN Brasil. Santana said the plan was for Lula to sign it that same day, and that he will challenge Flávio to do the same.
The papers are to go to Kássio Nunes Marques, president of the electoral court (TSE), and Edson Fachin, president of the Supreme Federal Court (STF), CNN Brasil reported. Santana signalled that the waiver depends on Flávio also giving his consent.
In an Instagram video on Monday, Lula said he would prepare powers of attorney covering himself and his children, if Flávio does the same with his parents and brothers, O Liberal reported. He gave Flávio one week to accept, according to Correio Braziliense, and pressed him over a costly house he bought, saying the two earn the same salary.
How the Debate Set This Up
Lula first raised the idea at the first runoff debate on the Band television network on Sunday 18 October. He questioned Flávio about alleged ties to ex-banker Daniel Vorcaro, while Flávio asked about lobbyist Roberta Luchsinger, who is linked to the INSS social-security fraud case, according to CNN Brasil.
O Liberal reported that Flávio neither accepted nor refused the proposal on stage, and instead hinted that Lula receives “dirty money on the side”. In his video, Lula said the goal was to “prove who is corrupt in this country”.
What the Offer Changes
A letter of consent from a candidate is a political gesture, and the reports do not say any court has acted on it. Whether judges would open any records is not yet known.
Both men have faced corruption claims from the other side, and our debate fact-check found errors in claims from each. The offer gives Lula a way to turn the debate attack back on his rival in the final week.
What It Means for US Readers
Corruption and campaign-finance questions can move Brazilian assets as quickly as a poll can. If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, headlines like this add to the swings expected before 25 October.
The Brazil runoff poll tracker lists every survey, so you can see whether voters react. Any change would show up in new polls over the coming days, not in this announcement itself.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.8% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula 23.5% (19 October, 5:04 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has about US$188.2 million in total bets.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.8% · Lula 23.5% (US$188 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 21%
As of 19 October, 5:20 pm ET (22:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
It is not known whether Lula has already signed the letter or when it reaches the two courts. Flávio Bolsonaro has made no public commitment to open his own records.
It is also unclear whether the courts will act on a letter that depends on a rival’s consent.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
What did Lula announce about his bank records?
His campaign said on Monday 19 October that he will authorise courts to open his bank and phone records, and those of his family. He wants Flávio Bolsonaro to do the same.
Who will receive the papers?
They are to go to Kássio Nunes Marques, president of the electoral court (TSE), and Edson Fachin, president of the Supreme Federal Court (STF). CNN Brasil reported this on Monday.
Has Flávio Bolsonaro accepted the challenge?
Not publicly, at the time of writing. He neither accepted nor refused when Lula raised it in the Band debate on Sunday 18 October.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October. Lula and Flávio Bolsonaro are the two candidates.
Sources: CNN Brasil, 19 October 2026; O Liberal, 19 October 2026; Correio Braziliense, 19 October 2026.
This article was drafted with automated assistance and reviewed before publication. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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