- The Central Bank of Kenya flagged potential price increases for several key food commodities in its September 2026 Agriculture Sector Survey
- Prolonged dry weather, higher fuel prices and rising transport costs are among the factors driving upward price pressure on basic goods
- 74% of the 466 respondents surveyed expected fresh packaged milk prices to rise, with garden peas also among the commodities under threat
TUKO.co.ke journalist Japhet Ruto has over eight years of experience in financial, business, and technology reporting, offering insights into Kenyan and global economic trends.
The Central Bank of Kenya (CBK) has raised the alarm over potential price increases for several household food staples, including fresh milk, maize flour, wheat flour, sugar and garden peas, in the weeks ahead.
Source: Twitter
The warning came in the CBK's September 2026 Agriculture Sector Survey, published on Wednesday, October 21, which attributed the expected price rises to prolonged dry weather, elevated fuel costs and higher transportation expenses.
Whuch commodities facing price pressure?
Of the 466 farmers, retailers and wholesalers who participated in the survey, 74% expected fresh packaged milk prices to climb, a sharp increase in negative sentiment compared to the previous month.
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The CBK linked the milk supply strain partly to the poor March-May 2026 long rains season, which damaged pasture across key livestock zones.
Price increase expectations for white wheat flour jumped from 29% to 48% between August and September 2026, while the proportion of respondents anticipating higher fortified maize flour prices rose from 31% to 47% over the same period.
Concerns about sifted maize flour were similarly elevated, with the figure doubling from 19% in August to 40% in September. Sugar was also flagged, with expectations of a price rise increasing from 15% to 28%.
"For sampled food commodities in the CPI basket, the proportion of respondents expecting price increases was generally higher in the September 2026 compared with August 2026," the CBK stated in the survey.
Garden peas were among the non-core food items identified as vulnerable to significant price hikes in October and subsequent months.
What factors drove the price outlook?
The survey highlighted weather conditions as the most widely cited factor influencing retail prices, identified by 97% of respondents.
Transport costs followed at 92%, while input prices were cited by 80% of those surveyed.
Middlemen and brokers were flagged by 62% of respondents as having an influence on retail pricing, and 58% pointed to disruptions in global supply chains as a contributing factor.
The findings arrive at a sensitive moment for Kenyan households already contending with a difficult cost-of-living environment, with basic food items accounting for a significant share of monthly expenditure for many families.
Source: TUKO.co.ke