BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Monday, 19 October, 9:42 a.m. ET · Source: PoderData/Aya
Key Facts
- The country Brazil, Latin America’s largest country, elects its president in a runoff on Sunday 25 October between President Lula and Senator Flávio Bolsonaro.
- What happened On Monday 19 October, the polling firm PoderData, with partner Aya, published a new runoff survey putting Flávio ahead.
- The numbers Flávio Bolsonaro has 52% of valid votes and Lula has 48%, a 4-point gap, with a margin of error of 1.8 points.
- The change The previous PoderData survey, published on Friday 16 October, had the two candidates tied at 50% each.
- Fieldwork 3,000 voters were interviewed by telephone on 16, 17 and 18 October in 695 municipalities, TSE registration BR-02586/2026.
- Power Index Brazil ranks 1st of 14 in The Rio Times Latin America Power Index, with 75.0 points (October 2026 edition).
- Prediction markets Polymarket gives Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.8% chance of winning the 25 October runoff (19 October, 9:37 a.m. ET). Polymarket puts Flávio Bolsonaro’s chance of winning at 77% and Kalshi at 79% (Lula: 24% and 21%), as of 19 October, 10:20 am ET; prices are bets, not polls.
- Still open The survey was taken before the final week of campaigning, and other pollsters show a closer race.
A new PoderData/Aya poll shows Flávio Bolsonaro ahead of President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva by 52% to 48% of valid votes in the Brazil election 2026 runoff. It was published on Monday 19 October, six days before voters choose the next president.
The result ends a tie from three days earlier and is the latest entry in our Brazil election polls tracker. The outcome matters to investors and trade partners because Brazil is the largest economy in Latin America.
What the New PoderData Poll Found
PoderData, the polling arm of the Brazilian news site Poder360, interviewed 3,000 voters by telephone from 16 to 18 October, CNN Brasil reported. The survey covered 695 municipalities in all 27 states, has a margin of error of 1.8 points at 95% confidence, and is registered with the electoral court (TSE) as BR-02586/2026.
Among valid votes, which leave out blank, spoiled and undecided answers, Flávio Bolsonaro, the conservative senator for Rio de Janeiro, has 52% and Lula has 48%, NC News reported. Lula, of the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT), has been president since 2023.
How the Race Moved Since Early October
The previous PoderData survey, with interviews from 13 to 15 October, put both candidates at 50% of valid votes, Gazeta do Povo reported. Our report on that PoderData tie covers the details.
An earlier PoderData survey, from the 8 October round, had Flávio at 53% and Lula at 47%, according to NC News. Against the tie, Flávio gained two points and Lula lost two, which widens the gap by four points, though Flávio is still one point below that early-October peak.
Other Pollsters Show a Tighter Race
The same day, AtlasIntel published a survey with Flávio at 51.1% and Lula at 48.9% of valid votes, from 4,998 interviews on 13 to 18 October with a margin of error of 1 point, Poder Nacional reported. We covered it in our AtlasIntel poll report.
Different firms use different methods, so their numbers can differ by a few points. Comparing several surveys, as our tracker does, gives a steadier picture than any single poll.
What It Means for US Readers
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, polls like this one can move prices before the vote. The gap widening by 4 points in three days shows how quickly the picture can change.
If you follow US trade or politics, the winner will shape Brazil’s relations with Washington for four years. A single survey with a 1.8-point margin of error cannot say who will win.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.8% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula a 23.5% chance (19 October, 9:37 a.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$188 million in total bets.
These are bets, not polls, and they can move within minutes of new surveys. Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.8% · Lula 23.5% (US$188 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 21%
As of 19 October, 10:20 am ET (15:20 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
We report only valid-vote figures here, because we could confirm the total-vote numbers in only one source. How the poll treats undecided voters in its raw totals is therefore not known to us.
It is not known how many undecided and swing voters will turn out on 25 October, or which way they will go. Any poll measures opinion on the days of the interviews and does not forecast the result.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s latest PoderData runoff poll?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 52% of valid votes against 48% for Lula. The survey was published on Monday 19 October.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, six days after this poll was published. The winner takes office as president for a four-year term.
What is the margin of error of the PoderData poll?
The margin of error is 1.8 percentage points at 95% confidence. PoderData interviewed 3,000 voters by telephone on 16, 17 and 18 October.
How did the PoderData poll change from last week?
The previous PoderData survey, published on Friday 16 October, had both candidates at 50% of valid votes. The gap has now widened by four points, with Flávio up two and Lula down two.
What are valid votes in a Brazilian poll?
Valid votes leave out blank, spoiled and undecided answers. Pollsters report them to match what the electoral authority announces.
Sources: CNN Brasil, 19 October 2026; Jovem Pan, 19 October 2026; NC News, 19 October 2026; CartaCapital, 19 October 2026; Gazeta do Povo, 16 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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