Craig Kerry
Matt Smith believes “one day the heavens will open up” for Headwall in a big race.
By that, the Warwick Farm trainer meant his Everest hope, often coming from back in the field, will hopefully get the run he needs to grab a major win after threatening several times.
Still, Smith is savouring the heavens opening this week to create a wet Randwick track as his $51 chance looks to defy the odds in the $20 million Everest on Saturday. The surface was downgraded to a heavy 8 on Thursday as the course copped more than 20mm in 24 hours and 97mm for the past week.
Defending champion Ka Ying Rising ($1.50) is untested on heavy going, giving his opposition reason to hope. Seven-year-old Headwall is two from two in heavy conditions and has not missed a place on soft tracks.
“He’s loved wet tracks when he got on them,” Smith said.
“It will be no problem, he loves the wet. If it’s going to be really heavy, I mean, you just don’t know, but he’s won on a heavy 8, so hopefully.”
Headwall won the group 3 Concorde Stakes (1000m) last year before injury denied him an almost certain Everest spot. He returned 12 months later in the same race, flashing home after a hindered run to finish a long neck runner-up to Everest second elect Tempted. He was strong late again, finishing a length away fifth in the Shorts (1100m), to secure the Everest slot for Max Whitby, Col Madden, Steve McCann and Neil Werrett.
His odds, though, lengthened when he missed the Premiere Stakes because of a slight temperature.
“We couldn’t believe [the price],” Smith said, with breeder and managing owner Reg Young by his side at the barrier draw.
“Both runs have been really good, and Tempted only just beat him first up, and if he got out earlier, he might have beaten her. The second run, not much was running on that ground and we finished beside Joliestar.
“But when you’ve had a little setback, the market reacts. They go, ‘you just can’t afford to have something go wrong’, but he’s back as good as he has ever been, so I’m not worried.”
Smith was confident a strong fitness base built in a long preparation and a “perfect” draw in six would give three-time Everest winner Kerrin McEvoy the chance to put Headwall into contention.
“He jumped well the other day, but Zac [Lloyd] was keen to get out, so he came back to get out, whereas he could have been two lengths closer easy, so up to 1200m from a middle draw, he should be midfield, that would be great,” he said.
“The form around this horse, who he’s run second to in the TJ Smith, in Melbourne down the straight, he’s got form against all the right horses.
“I’ve been saying that one day the heavens will open up for him, and he’ll go wallop.”
Young, just happy to be in the race after the disappointment of last year, was hoping for a Brisbane Lions-like AFL grand final win against the odds.
“It’s just little things dropping into place, and with a bit of luck on Saturday, you never know,” he said.
“You’ve just got to make sure nobody tells him that he’s seven years old and 50-1, as long as no one does, he’ll be right.
“I’m looking over at the Ka Ying Rising table, and all I can think about is Fremantle singing that song with a few minutes to go in the AFL grand final … you never know.”