South Africa Mining Output Falls 12.7% in August

SOUTH AFRICA · MINING

South Africa’s mines produced 12.7% less in August than a year earlier, the steepest annual fall since October 2022. Platinum, coal and iron ore drove the decline, the national statistics agency said on Tuesday.

South Africa mining output fell 12.7% year on year in August, Statistics South Africa (Stats SA) said on Tuesday, 13 October. The drop was far deeper than July’s revised decline of 7.0% and the steepest since October 2022.

Platinum group metals, which South Africa sells to carmakers and chemical plants worldwide, did most of the damage. That matters in the United States because several of the country’s largest miners trade in New York.

Platinum, Coal and Iron Ore Drag Output Down

Production of platinum group metals (PGMs) fell 22.5% from August 2025 and cut 6.1 percentage points from the total, the release shows. PGMs carry the largest weight in the production index, at 27.11%, just ahead of coal at 26.32%.

Coal output fell 11.7% and took 3.0 points off the total, while iron ore dropped 16.2% and subtracted 2.4 points. Diamonds fell 41.1% and nickel 32.2%, though both carry small weights in the index.

Gold, long the symbol of South African mining, fell a more modest 5.7% and cut half a point. Only two minerals grew, chromium ore by 11.1% and manganese ore by 4.1%.

Both are steel ingredients, and South Africa is a leading world supplier of each. Their gains added 0.6 and 0.3 of a point, far too little to offset the losses elsewhere.

A Sharp Monthly Drop After Seasonal Adjustment

After adjusting for seasonal patterns, output fell 5.4% in August compared with July, Stats SA said. This followed a 1.9% decline in July and a 0.4% rise in June.

In the three months to August, seasonally adjusted production was 5.2% lower than in the previous three months. PGMs accounted for most of that fall, with a 14.4% drop that cut 4.1 points.

The volume index, which uses 2019 as its base of 100, fell to 88.7 in August from 101.6 a year earlier. Output over the first eight months of 2026 is now 1.1% below the same period of 2025.

Sales Fall Faster Than Production

Mineral sales at current prices fell 15.1% year on year to R62.3 billion (about US$3.8 billion) in August. A year earlier, sales stood at R73.4 billion (about US$4.4 billion).

Gold sales dropped 48.6% and alone took 8.6 points off the total, the largest single drag on revenue. Iron ore sales fell 23.0%, while PGM sales fell 7.5% and coal sales 7.8%.

Seasonally adjusted sales fell 7.9% from July, after a 13.7% slide the month before. Conversions use the open.er-api.com rate of R16.54 per US dollar from 12 October 2026.

A Rebound That Did Not Come

Business Day reported on Sunday, 11 October, that Absa, a Johannesburg-based bank, expected PGM output to rebound in August. Absa linked July’s weakness to a temporary, safety-related closure at the Rustenburg operations of Impala Platinum, a leading producer.

The August figures show no such rebound, with seasonally adjusted PGM output down a further 12.1% from July. Business Day, which reported the same 12.7% fall on Tuesday, cited the Minerals Council on rising fuel, electricity and freight costs.

What It Means for US Readers

South Africa mines most of the world’s platinum, and PGMs go into the catalytic converters that clean exhaust from US cars. A sustained fall in supply could tighten a market that US automakers and metal investors watch closely.

Several large South African miners trade in New York, including Sibanye-Stillwater, Gold Fields and Harmony Gold. Sibanye-Stillwater also runs PGM mines in Montana, which links both countries’ platinum output.

Lower mining volumes also mean fewer export dollars, which support the rand and South Africa’s ability to pay foreign debt. Stats SA does not say whether US tariffs played any part, and its release gives no reasons for the fall.

What Is Not Known

Stats SA reports volumes and sales but does not explain why individual minerals fell. Whether the Rustenburg disruption cited by Absa drove the August PGM slump has not been confirmed by Stats SA or Impala Platinum.

It is also unclear why gold sales fell 48.6% while gold output fell only 5.7%. Shipment timing, stock changes or prices could explain the gap, but the release does not say.

The figures are preliminary and can be revised, as July’s were. Business Day’s preview gave no consensus forecast, so the size of the surprise against expectations is not known.

What Comes Next

Stats SA will publish September mining data on Thursday, 12 November 2026, completing the third quarter. A weak September would leave mining as a clear drag on third-quarter economic growth.

The August fall does not mean mines are shutting across the board, since chromium and manganese output grew. It does mean the sector heads into the final quarter with its steepest annual decline since October 2022.

Frequently Asked Questions

How much did South Africa’s mining output fall in August 2026?

Production fell 12.7% year on year and 5.4% from July after seasonal adjustment, Stats SA said. It was the steepest annual fall since October 2022, when output dropped 13.4%.

Which minerals drove the decline?

Platinum group metals fell 22.5%, coal 11.7% and iron ore 16.2%, together cutting 11.5 percentage points. Chromium and manganese ore were the only minerals that grew.

What are platinum group metals?

They are platinum, palladium, rhodium and related metals used in car exhaust catalysts, electronics and fuel cells. South Africa mines most of the world’s platinum, mainly in the Bushveld region north of Johannesburg.

How much were South Africa’s mineral sales worth in August?

Sales at current prices totalled R62.3 billion (about US$3.8 billion), down 15.1% from a year earlier. Gold sales fell 48.6%, the largest single drag on revenue.

Why does this matter to Americans?

South African PGMs feed US car production, and miners such as Sibanye-Stillwater, Gold Fields and Harmony Gold trade in New York. Weaker output can affect metal prices and those companies’ results.

When is the next mining release?

Stats SA will publish September figures on Thursday, 12 November 2026. That release will complete the third-quarter picture for the mining sector.

Sources: Statistics South Africa, Mining: Production and sales, August 2026 (P2041); Statistics South Africa, key findings P2041; Business Day, 13 October 2026; Business Day, 11 October 2026; Business Day, 10 September 2026 (all accessed 13 October 2026).