…expert says insecurity, high logistics costs undermine food affordability
Food inflation across Nigeria’s states showed sharp disparities in September, with Lagos recording the highest year-on-year rate at 34.4 percent, while Taraba posted a decline of 7.5 percent and Borno recorded 2.2 percent, according to the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS).
The figures highlight the uneven price pressures confronting households across the country, despite a decline in national food inflation to 19.59 percent in September from 20.16 percent in September 2025.
The NBS Consumer Price Index report released on Thursday showed that Imo recorded the second-highest food inflation rate at 33.79 percent, followed by Ondo at 31.49 percent. Delta and Benue recorded 30.6 percent and 27.3 percent, respectively.
Other states with elevated food inflation included Rivers at 26.8 percent, Ebonyi at 25.7 percent, Osun at 25.2 percent, Oyo at 24.5 percent, Ogun at 24.2 percent, Plateau at 24 percent and Anambra at 22.4 percent.
At the other end of the distribution, Taraba recorded the lowest year-on-year food inflation rate at -7.47 percent, followed by Yobe at -0.37 percent and Borno at 2.18 percent.
Nasarawa and Bauchi each recorded approximately 5.3 percent, while Kebbi posted 5.4 percent and Sokoto 6.1 percent. Jigawa, Kogi, Bayelsa, Katsina and Adamawa recorded rates ranging from 8.1 percent to 11.5 percent.
The differences come against the backdrop of a broader moderation in national inflation, although analysts warn that high food costs remain a major threat to household welfare and economic activity.
Muda Yusuf, chief executive officer of the Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), said the persistence of high food inflation was particularly concerning because food accounts for a disproportionately large share of expenditure among low-income households.
In his policy brief on the September inflation report, Yusuf noted that food inflation remained at 19.59 percent, exceeding headline inflation of 14.63 percent by 4.96 percentage points.
He said elevated food prices eroded real incomes, increased poverty risks and weakened household consumption as families devoted a larger proportion of their earnings to basic necessities.
“The implications extend beyond household welfare. As families allocate increasing proportions of their incomes to food, expenditure on manufactured products, education, healthcare and other services becomes constrained. This weakens effective demand and adversely affects businesses, especially consumer-facing enterprises,” Yusuf said.
Yusuf attributed persistent food inflation to structural weaknesses in agricultural production and distribution, including insecurity, inadequate rural infrastructure, high logistics costs, post-harvest losses and inefficient market connectivity.
He argued that addressing these challenges required targeted supply-side interventions rather than relying predominantly on monetary tightening.
The CPPE chief also called for improved security in farming communities, greater agricultural productivity, investments in rural roads and storage facilities, and more efficient inter-state market connectivity to reduce the cost of moving food from farms to consumers.
The state-level figures also showed contrasting month-on-month movements in food prices in September.
Imo recorded the highest monthly food inflation at 5.15 percent, followed by Ondo at 4.46 percent and Oyo at 3.82 percent.
In contrast, Adamawa recorded a monthly decline of 13.84 percent, Kano 11.01 percent and Bauchi 10.21 percent.
Nationally, food inflation fell by 1.55 percent month-on-month in September, compared with an increase of 1.02 percent in August. The NBS attributed the decline to changes in the average prices of items including local rice, maize flour, guinea corn flour, eggs, fresh onions, palm oil, green beans, Irish potatoes, okra, tomatoes, dried green peas and plantain.
The average annual food inflation rate over the 12 months ending September 2026 stood at 15.72 percent, down from 28.37 percent recorded in the corresponding period a year earlier.
The NBS cautioned that state-level inflation figures should be interpreted carefully because consumption expenditure patterns differ across locations, affecting the weights assigned to food and non-food items in each state’s consumer basket.
While the lower reported rates in Taraba, Yobe and Borno indicate slower annual food-price growth or, in Taraba’s case, a decline in average prices, they do not by themselves establish that food is more affordable in those states than in Lagos or other high-inflation locations.
The figures also do not independently explain the causes of the disparities, underscoring the need to examine local production, market access, security conditions, transport costs and household purchasing power when assessing food affordability across Nigeria.
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