As conflicts disrupt shipping, India’s crude purchases show how fast it can adapt

In September, the Consultative Shipping Group, a group of leading maritime nations, said that conflicts such as over the Strait of Hormuz and Black Sea are “not episodic shocks; they are signals of a structural shift in the operating environment of global trade. Shipping routes are increasingly instruments of leverage and risk.”

September saw shipping attacks intensify across the Black Sea even as attacks on ships across the Strait of Hormuz continued but with less intensity. The UN general assembly saw major world figures gathering in New York. The Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi spent nearly a week in New York, conducting negotiations with the U.S. government through intermediaries. The Iranian president addressed the general assembly and spoke to an American television channel. But there was no sign of an immediate truce.

September was the month Gulf oil exports rebounded. Since the war started, Saudi Arabia had been sending nearly half of its typical crude oil exports via its western ports on the Red Sea by piping the oil across the country. Despite the attack on that pipeline disrupting the flow, Saudi Arabia was able to quickly ship out from Ras Tanura on the Persian Gulf and eventually through via Ship-to-Ship transfers off Oman, for instance. Overall, crude exports from Gulf countries that had plummeted when the war started and crawled up to some 60% in June-July, rebounded to 80% to 100% of pre-war levels, as per trade figures.  

As imports from Russia dipped, India was able to pivot toward Gulf oil in September. Kpler figures, which are typically off eventual Ministry of Trade Statistics figures by a few percentage points, indicated that in September Saudi crude export to India increased by 50-60% over August.

Iraqi imports nearly tripled while Kuwaiti and Omani imports to India ramped up, too. Gulf oil imports crossed Russian imports to India for the first time since March. “Gulf crude oil imports to India that was at 1.2 million barrels a day increased to 2.4 million barrels per day in September. Flows across the Strait of Hormuz, Red Sea through Bab el-Mandeb, Red Sea through Suez Canal, as well as the land bypass of Strait of Hormuz to Fujairah helped to almost catch up to pre-war levels,” says Pankaj Srivastava, Senior Vice President of Rystad Energy.  

End of September saw ship attacks ramping up, leading up to becoming the most intense since the war started. More than a dozen attacks have been reported already in October and two ships sunk. Mr. Srivastava is, however, confident that Gulf crude exports would be comparable to September through multiple channels, not necessarily the strait.  

Shipping industry sources say that India has been buying large parcels from various countries as per availability. The same strategy would be deployed if Gulf oil disruptions are there in October. Government figures show occasional purchases of more than a million tonnes a month from countries as diverse as Brazil, Angola, Nigeria, Venezuela and the U.S.