BRAZIL · ELECTIONS
Published Monday, 19 October, 1:05 p.m. ET · Source: Futura Inteligência / 100% Cidades poll
Key Facts
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A new Futura Inteligência poll published on Monday 19 October shows Flávio Bolsonaro, senator for Rio de Janeiro, at 48.3% and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Brazil’s president, at 47.5%. The gap of 0.8 points is a technical tie in the Brazil election 2026, and valid votes read 50.4% to 49.6%.
The vote on Sunday 25 October decides who runs Latin America’s largest economy, which matters for Brazilian stocks, the real and trade with Washington. This is one more of the Brazil election polls that show the race tightening.
What the Futura Runoff Poll Found
Futura Inteligência interviewed 2,000 voters on 16 and 17 October for 100% Cidades, with a margin of error of 2.2 percentage points, Brasil 247 reported. In raw totals, Flávio has 48.3% and Lula 47.5%, Exame reported.
Among valid votes, which leave out blank and spoiled ballots, Flávio has 50.4% and Lula 49.6%, according to Exame. Both candidates sit within the margin of error of each other.
How the Race Moved in Three Days
Futura’s previous survey, published on Friday 16 October, had Flávio at 50.8% and Lula at 49.2% of valid votes, Brasil 247 reported. Flávio lost 0.4 points and Lula gained 0.4 points, so the lead fell from 1.6 points to 0.8.
A shift of 0.4 points is smaller than the 2.2-point margin of error. It is a direction worth watching, not proof that voters changed their minds.
Why Valid Votes and Technical Ties Matter
Brazil’s electoral court (TSE) counts only valid votes when it announces a winner. Pollsters therefore publish that figure next to the raw total of everyone they interviewed.
A technical tie means the gap is no larger than chance alone could produce in a sample of this size. With a margin of 2.2 points, this poll cannot separate the two candidates.
What It Means for You
If you hold Brazilian stocks, bonds or US-listed shares of Brazilian companies, a race this close can bring price swings until the result is known. The tracker of every survey lets you compare pollsters side by side.
If you follow US politics or trade, the winner will shape Brazil’s relations with Washington for the next four years. A 0.8-point gap is inside the margin of error, so neither candidate is a certain winner.
What Prediction Markets Say
On Polymarket, an online prediction market, bettors give Flávio Bolsonaro a 76.5% chance of winning the 25 October runoff and Lula da Silva 23.5% (19 October, 1:03 p.m. ET). The “Brazil Presidential Election” market has drawn about US$188 million in total bets; see our Brazil election odds page for Kalshi, which is regulated in the US by the CFTC.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
Prediction markets · who wins the runoff
Implied chance of winning Brazil’s presidency on 25 October, from traders’ prices.
Polymarket
Flávio Bolsonaro 76.5% · Lula 23.5% (US$188 million traded)
Kalshi (regulated in the US by the CFTC)
Flávio Bolsonaro 79% · Lula 20%
As of 19 October, 1:00 pm ET (18:00 Lisbon), updated every 20 minutes. Prices are bets, not polls, and can move fast.
Why we show this: prediction markets turn real-money bets into a live probability that moves within minutes of the news, which is why investors, campaigns and newsrooms in the United States now follow them closely. We show them next to polls and official results, never instead of them.
What Is Not Known
The reported figures do not show how undecided voters will split or how many will turn out on 25 October. The poll measures opinion on 16 and 17 October and does not forecast the result.
It is also not clear how the poll compares with other institutes, whose methods and fieldwork days differ. Brazilians will have the final word on Sunday 25 October.
More: Brazil news in English, every day from The Rio Times.
Frequently Asked Questions
Who leads Brazil’s latest runoff poll from Futura?
Flávio Bolsonaro leads with 48.3% to 47.5% of all votes, or 50.4% to 49.6% of valid votes. The 0.8-point gap sits inside the 2.2-point margin of error, so Brazilian outlets call it a technical tie.
When is Brazil’s runoff?
Brazilians vote on Sunday 25 October, six days after this poll was published. The winner will become president of Latin America’s largest country.
What is the margin of error?
It is 2.2 percentage points up or down, according to the poll as reported by Exame. A lead smaller than that cannot show who is truly ahead.
How did the poll change from Futura’s previous survey?
On Friday 16 October, Futura had Flávio at 50.8% and Lula at 49.2% of valid votes. Flávio lost 0.4 points and Lula gained 0.4, narrowing the gap to 0.8.
What are valid votes?
Valid votes leave out blank and spoiled ballots, matching the way Brazil’s electoral court reports results. Pollsters publish both that figure and the raw total of everyone interviewed.
Sources: Exame, 19 October 2026; Brasil 247, 19 October 2026; Money Times, 19 October 2026.
This article was produced by The Rio Times’ automated newsroom system. How we use AI · Report an error · Editorial responsibility: Matthias Camenzind, Editor-in-Chief
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