Gas prices have risen in every state where Democrats and Republicans are battling for control of a U.S. Senate seat since the war in Iran began, according to the latest data from AAA.
For Republican candidates and incumbents, this could be a significant weakness to overcome, as a recent Reuters/Ipsos poll found that a bipartisan majority (78 percent) blames the Trump administration’s policies for higher costs, including 64 percent of GOP voters.
This blame could translate into lost support for Republican candidates in November, especially if gas prices, up over 46 percent since February 28, keep rising.
Another survey conducted by Politico in the first week of October found that most voters would not be more likely to vote Republican even if President Donald Trump somehow ended the conflict in the Middle East or lowered prices at the pump before November.
Gas Prices Now More Than 46% Higher Than Before War Started
As of Tuesday morning, the national average gas price was $4.34 per gallon, according to AAA, up from $2.98 per gallon just before the U.S. and Israel launched joint strikes on Iran.
That means gas prices have risen by more than 46 percent since the start of the war, for a total additional cost of $73.5 billion, according to researchers at Brown University's Watson School of International and Public Affairs. That amounts to an additional $561.20 per U.S. household.
Drivers in California are paying the highest price at the pump, with a statewide average of $6.28 per gallon. Only three other states average above $5 per gallon: Hawaii ($5.64), Washington ($5.44), and Nevada ($5.44).
The lowest gas prices are in Georgia ($3.79 per gallon), North Carolina ($3.81), Texas ($3.84), Ohio ($3.85), and Indiana ($3.88).
Prices are up year-over-year and compared to late February, in each of the 13 battlegrounds for U.S. Senate elections this November, including Alaska ($4.99 per gallon), Florida ($4.11), Georgia, Iowa ($4.22), Maine ($4.38), Michigan ($4.62), Montana ($4.49), Nebraska ($4.19), New Hampshire ($4.30), North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina ($3.96) and Texas.
Compared to February 26, two days before the start of the Iran war which disrupted global oil supply, gas prices are now up by $1.39 per gallon in Alaska, $1.17 in Florida, $1.01 in Georgia, $1.59 in Iowa, $1.47 in Maine, $1.61 in Michigan, $1.70 in Montana, $1.47 in Nebraska, $1.45 in New Hampshire, $1.03 in North Carolina, $1.09 in Ohio, $1.27 in South Carolina and $1.23 in Texas.
According to calculations made by Moody’s Analytics chief economist Mark Zandi, higher fuel prices—including gas and diesel—have cost the average U.S. household an additional $1,100 since the war began nearly eight months ago.
Zandi warned on social media that the financial burden will likely increase in the coming months “as winter approaches,” pushing home heating fuel prices “much higher.”
Patrick De Haan, head of petroleum analysis at GasBuddy, also thinks that Americans might not have seen the worst of higher gas prices yet. He wrote on social media that October 13 would have tied “2022’s record for number of days with the national average above $4 per gallon.”
Four years ago, the country counted 157 days when the national average price for a gallon of regular gas was above $4. “Today is our 156th day above $4 this year,” De Haan said in his Monday post on X. “Tomorrow, we tie that 157 days and Wednesday we set a new record for most days above $4/gal in any year ever.”
Newsweek reached out to Moody’s Analytics and the White House via email for comment.
How Trump Has Tried to Alleviate Higher Fuel Prices
Facing plunging approval ratings since the start of the war in Iran, Trump and his administration have pursued several measures aimed at easing the surge in fuel prices ahead of the crucial midterms.
In March, Trump ordered the release of 172 million barrels of oil from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve over 120 days, seeking to increase supplies as crude prices climbed. His administration also temporarily eased sanctions to allow purchases of Russian oil already at sea and considered freeing up sanctioned Iranian oil.
Trump also issued a 60-day waiver of the Jones Act, allowing foreign vessels to transport fuel between U.S. ports to ease domestic supply constraints. The administration has considered allowing the summertime sale of E15 gasoline, while providing political-risk insurance to encourage cargo ships to operate in the Gulf. Trump has pressured U.S. allies, including European nations, to support efforts to restore safe passage through the Strait of Hormuz.
As the conflict dragged on and prices continued rising, Trump has repeatedly expressed interest in another potential measure: temporarily suspending the federal gas tax, which would cut about 18 cents from the price of a gallon.
Earlier this month, the president also signed an executive order allowing tax-free dyed diesel, normally used only for agricultural machinery and construction equipment, on the road.
A recent plan floated by the Trump administration to import 300,000 tons of diesel from Russia has faced massive backlash, with both Democrats and Republicans pushing back.
Why the Senate Races in These Battleground States Matter
The Senate contests in the 13 battleground states could determine control of the upper chamber in November.
Republicans currently hold a 53-47 majority, meaning Democrats need a net gain of four seats to reach 51 and take outright control. But two Democratic-held battlegrounds are in states Trump won in 2024 (Georgia and Michigan), so Democrats must first defend vulnerable territory while finding Republican seats to flip.
Republicans, however, are facing a very different political environment than the one the country was immersed in a couple of years ago.
Overall, four of the 13 competitive states currently have Democratic-held seats, including Georgia, Michigan, Minnesota and New Hampshire. Nine have Republican-held seats, including Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Nebraska, North Carolina, Ohio, South Carolina and Texas.
The latest Cook Political Report ratings suggest seven toss-up states, including Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio and Texas. Republicans can hold on to their Senate majority if they keep seats in four of the toss-up states.
Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Tobias Meyjes and Sam Wilson.