KUALA LUMPUR: Cooperation with Bersatu could help Pakatan Harapan (PH) reach more Malay voters in next month's Melaka election, but wresting power from Barisan Nasional (BN) will remain difficult.
Universiti Malaya senior political science lecturer Dr Mohammad Tawfik Yaakub said PH would need to win 15 of the 28 seats contested, but several factors favoured BN.
These included the performance of Chief Minister Datuk Seri Ab Rauf Yusoh, BN's "poster boy", the performance of several BN assemblymen, and Umno-BN's popularity and grassroots strength in Melaka.
Mohammad Tawfik said DAP's four seats in Kota Laksamana, Kesidang, Bandar Hilir and Ayer Keroh would be difficult to challenge, as each had previously been won with a majority of more than 5,000 votes.
"However, it is still too early to predict what majorities DAP candidates could regain, given the possibility of a 10 per cent shift in Chinese voter sentiment, as seen in previous state elections in Sabah, Johor and Negri Sembilan.
"At the same time, I expect fierce contests in the two seats currently held by MCA, Machap Jaya and Klebang, both of which have majorities of fewer than 1,000 votes," he said when contacted today.
In the 2021 Melaka state election, PH won five seats, four through DAP and one through Amanah, while PKR failed to win any.
PH was previously reported to be considering cooperation with Bersatu for the 16th Melaka election, with PH election director Datuk Seri Amirudin Shari tasked with examining the prospects.
Neither side had made an official announcement as of today. Last night, PH announced it would contest 21 seats, with PKR fielding candidates in nine, DAP in seven and Amanah in five. The remaining seven seats were not announced and were believed to be intended for a coalition partner.
Mohammad Tawfik said experience in the Johor and Negeri Sembilan state elections showed that political cooperation did not necessarily lead to an automatic transfer of votes, including Malay votes.
He said Bersatu's support could not be assumed to transfer directly to PH, and the party's poor performance in the previous Johor and Negri Sembilan state elections could be repeated in Melaka.
"Bersatu's support was previously 'siphoned off' by Parti Wawasan Negara (Wawasan), a breakaway from Bersatu. In Negri Sembilan, for example, Bersatu lost all 24 seats and recovered its election deposit in only one, Jeram Padang.
"In my view, this development is alarming for Bersatu. PH needs to be cautious about this cooperation because it could drain its campaign machinery and financial resources without necessarily improving the chances of winning seats contested by Bersatu," he said.
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