Democrats are ahead in three critical Senate races, according to new polling from The Cook Political Report on Wednesday, as Republicans fight to maintain control of both chambers this midterm cycle.
The new report from Cook shows Democrat James Talarico up over Republican Ken Paxton in Texas by 5 percent, Democrat Josh Turek ahead of Republican Ashley Hinson by 2 percent in Iowa and Democrat Sherrod Brown leading Republican Jon Husted by 6 percent in Ohio.
Midterm elections are commonly viewed as a test of the political environment facing the party in power, and the president's party has historically lost seats during them. President Donald Trump won Iowa, Texas and Ohio during the 2024 presidential election versus then Vice President Kamala Harris.
Trump's overall approval rating and ranking on specific policy issues like the economy, immigration, jobs and the ongoing war in Iran have recently slipped as households across America are consistently flagging affordability concerns. The polling lows come as Trump has crisscrossed the country in the lead-up to November 3 to rally for potentially vulnerable GOP candidates.
Newsweek reached out to Paxton, Hinson and Husted's campaigns via email on Wednesday for comment.
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What Cook Political Report Shows
The report from Cook highlights the narrow leads by the Democratic candidates amidst the fundraising advantage held by the GOP.
The polling shows that all three Democrats are more trusted to handle corruption, inflation, as well as lowering gas and energy prices, Cook says. Republicans, on the other hand, have the lead on immigration and taxes.
All three Democratic Senate candidates are "breaking even" in their favorability ratings compared to their Republican counterparts, who are all underwater by double digits, Cook notes. Similarly, Trump's net favorability is also negative, even in GOP stronghold Texas.
“The economic center of the American electorate is collapsing on Republicans,” GOP pollster Greg Strimple of GS Strategies said in the report by Cook. “Voters are so upset with the lack of leadership on reducing their cost of living, they appear willing to propel Democrats to upset victories in reliably Republican states despite the fact that Democrats are less popular than either President Trump or Republicans. The level of voter discontent is truly unprecedented.”
Cook concluded that overall Republican advantages have diminished as voters increasingly view the election adjacent to an unpopular president and connect their economic dissatisfaction to his policies.
Robert Y. Shapiro, a professor of political science at Columbia University's School of International and Public Affairs, told Newsweek on Wednesday, "This is a good sign and confirms that Democrats are very competitive now for getting majority control of the Senate. If their turnout edge in early voting continues, even if somewhat less so, on election day, they would likely have a very good day and outcomes in the House, Senate, and certain races for governor."
Grant Davis Reeher, a professor of political science at Syracuse University, also told Newsweek that the new polling is "the best snapshot that we have, but there are still a lot of known unknowns at this point."
"How will the category of 'likely voters' differ from the actual voters? Will there be a 'coming home' phenomenon for Republicans frustrated with Trump and for Independents who voted for Trump in ’24? Are some people not admitting they will vote against the Democrat in Michigan, or that they will vote for the Republican in Texas, because they think it 'looks' bad?" Reeher added.
"It’s not in the bank yet, except for Democrats taking the majority in the House. That is pretty much in the bank. But the Senate is still open," Reeher concluded.
Cook's new polling, conducted by Democratic firm New River Strategies and Republican firm GS Strategy Group, interviewed 602 likely voters in Iowa, 959 in Ohio, and 934 in Texas from October 9-13, 2026. The margin of error for Iowa is 4 percent, 3.2 percent in Ohio and 3.2 percent in Texas.
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Turek leads in the poll over Hinson 46 percent to 44 percent as Libertarian Thomas Laehn landed 8 percent. Independents favor Turek 51 percent to Hinson's 27 percent, and 20 percent said Laehn.
In the state's governor's race, Democrat Rob Sand leads 54 percent to Republican Zach Lahn's 43 percent and 3 percent don't know. Similarly, independents favor the Democrat 68 percent to Lahn's 26 percent and 6 percent don't know.
Polling in the race has been a mixed bag, with both Hinson and Turek narrowly holding leads.
In a co/efficient poll this month, Hinson had 48 percent compared to Turek's 45 percent. Two percent backed Laehn and 6 percent were undecided. The poll surveyed 863 likely general election voters from October 15-19, 2026, and had a margin of error of 3.32 percent.
A YouGov poll showed Turek with 47 percent compared to Hinson's 46 percent, while 2 percent said someone else and 4 percent were undecided. The poll surveyed 2,245 Iowa likely voters from October 6-12, 2026, and had a margin of error of 3.1 percent.
Cook rates the race as a toss-up as does Sabato's Crystal Ball.
Prediction market site Kalshi shows Hinson in the lead on Wednesday afternoon with 57 percent compared to Turek's 43 percent. Polymarket shows Hinson in the lead 56 percent to 44 percent.
Texas
In the Lone Star State, Talarico leads Paxton 49 percent to 44 percent as Libertarian Ted Brown landed 3 percent and 4 percent don't know. Independents back Talarico 65 percent to Paxton's 23 percent, the poll shows.
The governor's race is a different tune, as incumbent Greg Abbott leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa with 48 percent compared to 46 percent. Libertarian Pax Dixon has 3 percent and 3 percent don't know.
The Senate race is rated as a toss-up by Cook and Sabato's Crystal Ball, as Talarico leads in a majority of new polling.
An ActiVote poll shows Talarico with 51 percent compared to Paxton's 49 percent. The poll surveyed 400 likely midterm voters from October 17 to October 21, 2026, and had an average expected error of 4.9 percent.
Similarly, a Marist University poll also showed Talarico up two percent with 47 percent compared to Paxton's 45 percent. Two percent said other, 4 percent were undecided and 2 percent did not respond. The poll surveyed 1,196 respondents from October 8-11, 2026, and had a margin of error of 4.9 percent for likely voters.
Kalshi shows Talarico in the lead on Wednesday afternoon with 67 percent versus Paxton's 33 percent. Polymarket shows Talarico with 67 percent compared to Paxton's 34 percent.
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Ohio
Brown leads Husted 49 percent to 43 percent, Cook's polling shows. Three percent also backed Libertarian William Redpath, and 4 percent backed Independent Greg Levy. Independents preferred Brown with 60 percent versus Husted's 24 percent.
Similarly, in the gubernatorial race, Democrat Amy Acton leads Republican Vivek Ramaswamy 49 percent to 44 percent, while 6 percent backed Libertarian Don Kissick.
Recent polling shows a close race with Brown leading in a majority of polls. Cook rates the race as a toss-up along with Sabato's Crystal Ball.
An ActiVote poll shows Husted with 50.2 percent compared to Brown's 49.8 percent. The poll surveyed 400 likely midterm voters from September 26 to October 18, 2026, and had an average expected error of 4.9 percent.
A Marist University poll shows Brown with 48 percent compared to Husted's 44 percent, while 2 percent said other, 4 percent were undecided and 1 percent did not respond. The poll surveyed 1,176 respondents from October 15-18, 2026, and had a margin of error of 4.5 percent for likely voters.
Kalshi shows Brown with 67 percent compared to Husted's 33 percent. Polymarket shows Brown with the majority at 70 percent compared to Husted's 31 percent.
Midterm Map Shows Toss-Up Senate Seats
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Contact Newsweek editors on this story: Jason Lemon and Gray R. Thomas