Republicans are no longer united in their assessment of President Donald Trump's economic policies. A new Pew Research Center survey shows that 39% of Republicans and Republican-leaning independents believe his policies have improved the economy, while 35% say they have made it worse. Another 25% believe they have had little effect.
The nearly even division is a sharp departure from January, when Republicans who credited Trump with improving the economy outnumbered those who blamed him for worsening conditions by more than three to one.
The survey, conducted September 28 through October 4 among 5,062 U.S. adults, identifies three distinct groups within the Republican coalition: those who still see economic progress under Trump, those who believe his policies are causing harm, and those who see little evidence that his decisions have changed economic conditions.
The shift has been substantial. In January, 57% of Republicans and Republican leaners said Trump's policies were helping the economy, compared with 18% who said they were hurting it. By July, those figures had moved to 42% and 28%. In October, the difference narrowed to just four percentage points.
Republicans are also divided over Trump's tariffs, one of the central components of his economic agenda.
Four in ten expect the tariffs to have a mostly positive impact on the country in the coming years, while 26% anticipate mostly negative consequences. Another 34% believe the effects will be equally positive and negative.
That represents a significant change from August 2025, when 52% of Republicans expected mostly positive results and 21% anticipated negative consequences.
The numbers show that even among Republicans who remain relatively optimistic about the president's trade policies, confidence has diminished.
The disagreements extend to the condition of the economy itself. Just 36% of Republicans describe current economic conditions as excellent or good, down from 49% in January. Meanwhile, 23% say conditions are poor, compared with 19% in July.
But the most revealing divisions may concern the future.
Only 41% of Republicans now expect the economy to improve over the next year, while 25% expect conditions to deteriorate and 34% anticipate little change.
In February 2025, shortly after Trump returned to the White House, 73% of Republicans expected the economy to improve. The decline to 41% represents a 32-percentage-point drop in optimism over approximately 20 months.
Despite their differences over Trump's performance, Republicans share widespread concerns about everyday expenses.
According to Pew, 65% are very concerned about gasoline and energy prices, 62% about food and consumer goods, 57% about health care costs and 53% about housing. Those findings indicate that Republicans who support Trump's economic policies are not necessarily satisfied with the cost of living.
The survey also found that 42% of Republicans are very concerned about artificial intelligence's role in the economy, while 34% worry about people who want jobs being unable to find them. Only 19% express significant concern about stock market performance.
The contrast suggests that household expenses remain a more immediate concern for Republican respondents than Wall Street's performance. These divisions come less than three weeks before the November 3 midterm elections, when voters will decide control of Congress.
A separate Pew survey released October 8 found that 82% of voters supporting Republican congressional candidates consider the economy very important to their vote. Among voters supporting Democratic candidates, the figure is 88%.
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